RE: Ithaca's production in Apr244 Jun 2024 14:45
Tamovv, I’m not inclined to post my full assessment.
There’s been plenty of well-informed comment on the current EPL and what a ‘proper windfall tax’ under Labour might mean. The consequences of a radical adjustment to the fiscal regime in the North Sea should be clear to all except environment ideologs – I don’t have Reeves or Starmer in the ideolog camp. The unions are concerned about the impact a cut back in North Sea investment will have on jobs and the Scottish Tories appear to have focused on the EPL in political arguments against Scottish Labour. In last night’s debate the Scottish Labour leader held firm on Labour policy - we await clarification on detail on the EPL in Labour’s manifesto. However, given the North Sea is likely to feature as a key topic in only 6 Scottish seats, I think Labour will hold firm through the election too, because a ‘proper windfall tax’ plays well south of the border.
In the Q1 update Iain explained his views and concluded, the decision is now Labour’s to make.
Post election, Reeve’s will have the opportunity to fully consider the implications of changes to the North Sea fiscal regime, without electoral concerns, but guided by any detail revealed in the manifesto. The manifesto should be released in the next week or so. Let’s hope they haven’t been rash.
As an investor with c.17% of my portfolio invested in the North Sea sector, I have made my own assessment of the outcome. My assessment consists of 5 elements and those are the cards I’m playing, but I’ll adjust as the game progresses.
Each investor should make their own assessment taking note of the players at the main table (Iain and others) not an anonymous poster on a chat board.