Ithaca Energy Share Price (ITH)

Ithaca have done the right thing buying my ENI’s UK assets. Better that than paying 70% all in tax burden in the UK. The more stablished players are protected with earnings abroad. So best re invest the money.

They are good people one of the best i have worked with over the last 2-3 years.

If or shall i say when Labour get in that tax rate increases to 80%.

Know wonder all investment goes abroad. All our gas majors are home grown so get hammered also.

Tescos made 3.1 bn profit but screwing the farmers and suppliers is ok in the UK governments eyes.

In some ways it has been like this for years with north sea oil. I have to get to the US t get paid correctly £65k in UK vs $225k US.

Anyways i digress. Ithaca is goi my to regroup in 2024 with lots of drilling 2025 onwards. This is a slow burn a great long term dribble of money to invest.

Dividends in the future also. So do not get disheartened.

@Tamovv - Yesterday's market reaction exposed the harsh truth - we operate in a traders' arena rather than an investors' domain. The herd mentality fixated myopically on the near-term 3% sale, disregarding the seismic 120% production surge projected for 2030. However, my mantra remains unwavering: "Don't argue with the market, exploit it" :)

To me, the crowning jewel of yesterday's presentation was the chart on p.17 (https://ithacaenergy-files.fra1.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/Documents/Business-Combination/2024.04.23_Combination-Of-Ithaca-Energy-And-Eni%E2%80%99s-UK-Oil-And-Gas-Assets.pdf). Observe how the combined entity's 2P reserves dwarf Ithaca's current 2C contingent resources, a disparity so vast, it alone is sufficient for me to be in favour of this deal. The synergies Mr. Lewis emphasized in his answer at the end, coupled with the prospects of an elevated credit standing and augmented short-term divis, are the bonus.

Can´t wrap my head around todays SP (non) action. Thought the recent drop was caused by weak Q1 production, which is negligible now given the accreditive production for old non-diluted shareholders. Fears about a dividend cut aren´t valid any longer too. So the recent SP drop has been solely caused by political statements / expectations around laber in my opinion, otherwise we should have seen some reversion today.

Q&A session was rather lame today, not many additional useful information in my opinion.

Anyways, I still like the ENI move. My model shows tax loss consumption by the end of 2028 now. Until then the ENI assets contribute to CFFO after tax (also on a 61,5% basis for non-diluted shareholders). Dividends for old shareholders approx. 1,4 bUSD at current commodity prices by end of 2028 at current commodity prices (without any windfall tax 75 to 78% worseing effect of course), which is close to current market cap... Still feels crazy undervalued to me, but maybe I am totally wrong and things around O & G in the UK will indeed turn absolutely terrible under labour and Cambo finally gets cancelled etc.

In any case ITH is a highly political stock and big bet on the industries future. However, the ENI deal de-risked the political exposure for old-shareholders in my opinion given additional optionality, so really don´t understand why there wasn´t any move today. The delek sale of 3% can´t be that disturbing or am I wrong?

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1046053/ithaca-energy-doubling-down-in-north-sea-puzzling-says-us-bank-1046053.html

Agreed a good deal. The market overreacted previously to the fall in the production forecast and anticipation of a reduction in the dividend.

Well even considering the enlarged shares in issue the impact on the dividend payouts is really negligible now considering the enlarged group will be able to develop it's assets with ease, reduce costs and produce significant amounts of cash for significant further acquisitions. The SP is excellent value for those who look beyond the next dividend payment. Disappointing reaction this morning but anyone with eyes should see there's value to be had here.