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As per my calculation, based on data published today (https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/ba8b7b78d3a74edc88293011981ce2d7_0/data ):
Oil: 40.3Kbbl/d. Gas: 17.1Kboe/d. Total: 57.4 Kboe/d.
(a reminder: Feb numbers are 34.6 / 18.4 / 53 respectively. Jan numbers are 42.6 / 20.2 / 62.8)
Which means, that if I'm correct in my calculations, we should expect Q1 average production to be:
39.2 Kbbl/d oil, 18.6 Kboe/d gas, and total of 57.8 Kboe/d.
@Tamovv - Yesterday's market reaction exposed the harsh truth - we operate in a traders' arena rather than an investors' domain. The herd mentality fixated myopically on the near-term 3% sale, disregarding the seismic 120% production surge projected for 2030. However, my mantra remains unwavering: "Don't argue with the market, exploit it" :)
To me, the crowning jewel of yesterday's presentation was the chart on p.17 (https://ithacaenergy-files.fra1.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/Documents/Business-Combination/2024.04.23_Combination-Of-Ithaca-Energy-And-Eni%E2%80%99s-UK-Oil-And-Gas-Assets.pdf). Observe how the combined entity's 2P reserves dwarf Ithaca's current 2C contingent resources, a disparity so vast, it alone is sufficient for me to be in favour of this deal. The synergies Mr. Lewis emphasized in his answer at the end, coupled with the prospects of an elevated credit standing and augmented short-term divis, are the bonus.
Reserves: https://www.ithacaenergy.com/operations/reserves
Full CPR: https://ithacaenergy-files.fra1.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/NSAI-Ithaca-YE23-CPR-2024-03-15.pdf
2P reserves value at 10% discount rate = $4.35B
2C contingent resources value at 10% discount rate = $3.05B
And yet Ithaca is traded at less than its tax asset. What a bargain!
@Tamovv - congrats (again) on your timing.
I would wait for the updated CPR to be published. (currently they show EOY2022 report - https://www.ithacaenergy.com/operations/reserves) but they say they'll publish the updated version soon.
Interview excerpts here: https://fb.watch/r5-a_Qf8v5/
(It's Chairman Mayerson, not the CEO)
We had the dividend news yesterday.
Current date for results is March 27: https://investors.ithacaenergy.com/news-events/financial-calendar
They keep their word.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ITH/announcement-of-interim-dividend/16387826
@Tamovv - told you you're getting this divi for free :) and then some...
Congrats.
@londoner7 - Thanks, that's useful. So Feb-Mar should be around 59Kboed, but April should come back to around 64-65. Notice also the drilling of additional wells in Alba and Schiehallion.
@Tamovv - re EPL - IMHO Ithaca is sooo discounted that not only is the spring budget announcement priced in, but one could even argue that the price already reflects Labour's perceived outrageous plans.
The next two weeks should be interesting, with the March 21st report coming out. Additionally, it is my understanding that according to Israeli law, Delek must publish an updated full reserves and resources report, including detailed revenue and cash flow projections. I think we can expect to see how deeply Ithaca's share price is discounted.
Kindly leave quarrels from other online communities out of here, PLEASE! We have a good thing here, please don't ruin it.
This post was supposed to monitor information about Leverett and K2.
Today's update in Harbour Energy's report (on p. 3): "we successfully appraised the Leverett gas discovery in 2023 with the potential development via a subsea tieback to the Britannia platform now being evaluated."
https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/szljzatx/harbour_energy_full_year_results_2023.pdf
Good!!! Now we need to see some numbers and schedule.
Hi Tamovv,
Two factors, one relatively minor and the other quite significant, should work in Ithaca's favour:
Firstly, the continued shutdown of the Pierce field, which according to today's news should be resolved later this month (https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/549256/shell-pierce-restart-outage/), is a minor factor.
Secondly, and more importantly, first oil from the Captain EOR Phase II project is a major development. According to the Q3 update released in November 2023, "The Captain EOR Phase II project is approximately 80% complete with estimated first subsea polymer injection in H1 2024." This Captain EOR project should provide Ithaca with a substantial, one could even say dramatic, boost in production.
By the way, congratulations on your recent purchase of shares at 1,28 (I remember you mentioning it in one of your replies to my Q4 production estimation). With that purchase timing, you might just receive a dividend "for free" :)
NSTA just published the North Sea production numbers in January this year.
https://hub.arcgis.com/datasets/ba8b7b78d3a74edc88293011981ce2d7_0/explore?showTable=true
As per my calculation, Ithaca's numbers are 62,799 boe/d. (Oil 42588 bbl/d, gas 20211 boe/d).
1. K2 appraisal well (50% working interest) - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/656dc1c09462260721c56834/PETS_Output_-_DR-2373.pdf
2. Leverett appraisal well (12% working interest)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65b7674bc5aacc000da6841b/DR-2321-7.pdf
Let's hope for good results :)
Let's hope for
I personally was positively surprised by news of latest redetermination of the Reserve Based Lending facility, resulting in available $835M (Q3 was $765M). TBH I was a bit relieved to see the bank consortium not hitting the brakes on lending or restricting divi after redetermination, given Labour's threats.
To me this was a pleasant surprise!
@Tamovv - The picture is much brighter for Ithaca!
Q3 "Net cash value" of losses is $1,816,586 (see p.23 of trading update). Ithaca is not going to pay any corporation tax or SCT for years. That's the brilliance of the 2022 M&A deals. I honestly think the market misses this point, i.e. when comparing HBR/ENQ/SQZ to Ithaca. I think ppl do simplistic "price to sales" or EV/EBITDA comparison - and ignore this massive tax asset. This asset, together with lower EPL charge due to Rosebank/possible Cambo development make Ithaca much more attractive than others IMHO.
Re EPL - I suspect 23Q4 CAPEX was higher than previous quarters, so 2023 EPL charge may be less than 350.