Ithaca Energy Share Price (ITH)

Desertsands, given the market is currently absorbing the “Delek Sell Down” at around 118p, I’d be inclined to hold off selling until this exercise is complete. I would then expect some recovery in the share price.

Recovery to what?

Taking account of the recent dividend I estimate that the “sell down” discount is around 15p. But that is largely down to whether the market continues to absorb the selling at 118p.

Trading volumes over the last 7 days total 13m (are Delek sales a quarter, a third of the total?). There was a wobble in volumes on Monday and Tuesday of this week, but volume has recovered with 118p maintained.

If this pattern holds until Delek clear the 30m of stock then perhaps my 15p discount will close and we’ll see a price closer to 133p, all other things being equal, which of course they will not be – oil price being one.

You say, “time is not on your side”. I don’t know what you mean by that, but I’d go back to why you bought Ithaca shares in the first place, and what your expectations were? I don’t need you to answer that question, I’d just suggest you consider it and act accordingly in your own interests.

I’ll offer the reasons for my holding.

I hold 15-20% of my portfolio in oil/gas stocks, because the sector interests me. I can easily relate to the forces driving the market and to a lesser degree the stocks themselves. But when I look back at decades of investment, oil & gas is probably my least profitable investment sector. It’s the price I pay for my amusement.

I’d been invested in Ithaca before Delek’s acquisition in 2017 and had followed their progress since, so I was aware of the IPO late 2021. I don’t buy into IPOs, but I was attracted to Ithaca’s dividend policy and by mid-2022 I felt the impact of the EPL was in the price, so bought an initial stake. I continued to add over the next 12 months but stopped last year, deciding that given the fiscal environment, my amusement was costing too much – below par performance is one thing, a loss something else.

I’ve now decided to invest the dividends from my oil stocks in other sectors. In that way, I’m slowly extracting myself from the sector while maintaining an interest.

My largest oil stock holdings are ITH and HBR. I like their recent mergers and look forward to decent dividends over the coming years. But they don’t go into the drawer. I’ll sell if I see something I don’t like and take profits if the opportunity arises – I’ve no favourites in this game.

However, I have decided to add a trading position on Ithaca based on what I described as the current discount around the ‘Delek Sell Down’. Money where my mouth is, and all that!

Up or down, the position will be closed within a few months, because I see a better opportunity in a different sector later this year. My ITH and HBR dividends are going in the same direction.

Yes in the same boat, average 1.41 but a bit heavy loaded, It seems to be trading in a channel 1.18 ( about the issuing share price for ENI) looks good for the credit re-rate and dividend.

I don’t know about anybody else, but I am in the position where I have to give serious thought selling out of Ithaca and at quite a considerable loss.

Time is not on my side, otherwise I would just park the shares in the bottom drawer and forget about them…… is it just me or has Ithaca now turned into a far more long-term prospect ? I have held my shares for a few years now so I am not an opportunistic investor . I am not doubting the soundness of the business - that I believe is not in question - it’s a peculiar share and one in which I believe the SP should be a lot higher than it is.

Please don’t misunderstand - I am not looking for investment advice just more thinking out loud and would be interested in other holders views if you’d care to share.

Linnn, thanks for the link. I followed it back to the podcast.

My first reaction on the sanctioning of Cambo is that there's no way Ithaca should proceed until there is certainty on Labour's fiscal position. Gilad might be encouraged by what Labour are saying behind closed doors, but it was only a few months back that Alan Brice (exCEO) reported that the SNP First Minister backtracked on his 'behind closed doors' comments when Rosebank was sanctioned. The politicians can't be trusted.

However, I think the content of the Labour manifesto will be key, and I can see a strategy where sanctioning Cambo on a supportive manifesto, but before Labour enter office, i.e. under the current government, could deflect some opposition. Sanctioning under Labour could be more challenging.

Good to Gilad explaining the longer term outlook. An oil and gas producer, with none of the carbon capture nonsense that I think UK peers following that path may come to regret due to lower investment returns.

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/553468/ithaca-cambo-decision/