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A reminder below from the 6 month report a few weeks back. Hold on....!
The Board continues to believe that that the Paradox project has the potential to be a project of significant scale as evidenced by the Zephyr's internal resource estimates for the project based on HSRP development. In summary:
· In the Cane Creek reservoir alone, up to 30 potential well locations with a range of risked net recoverable contingent resources of up to 18 mmboe.
· In the overlying reservoirs high-graded by Zephyr as potential exploration zones, an estimated P50 total of 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent hydrocarbons in place across the Company's acreage.
· In total, up to 200 potential well locations with a range of risked net recoverable contingent resources of up to 143 mmboe.
Following the decision to proceed down the HSRP completion route for the State 16-2LN-CC well, final completion design work is underway with plans for a completion crew to be on-site during the second week of October. Completion operations are expected to take less than a week and production testing is envisioned to commence shortly thereafter, with initial flow tests and results expected two to four weeks later.
Good evening all Investors.
I have taken a sizeable position in ZPHR for many reasons.
The probable more than 1 Billion barrels of oil. Risked net recoverable contingent resources figure will increase, for a number of reasons.
1. Any past or future CPR figures will always be, by their very nature - conservative, probably by a factor of 20%
2. Technology gets better and better, look at the massive strides in Horizontal drilling in the last 5 + years, therefore RF increase.
3. 2D and 3D tech is improving
4. Long term lets assume we have 360m bls recoverable, and we drill 200 wells, each well produces 400 bpd = 80,000 bpd (divided with our Partner 50/50) therefore net 40,000 bpd to ZPHR. Income of 1.25 BILLION pa less costs.
** you may care to carryout your own DD, but there are numerous Cement factories close to Paradox, in time we may move to EOR/CCS. This will increase production, but note the US Government pay $30+ per ton of CO2 sequestrated.
This changes the metrics, plus gives 'green' credentials and fantastic ESG in a difficult industry. We can actually produce Carbon negative oil, which will carry a small price premium.
Given all of the above, any medium to long term investor can expect huge returns.
DYOR
GLA
MEM
With a current M/Cap of just over £90m, the slightly out of date valuation of $3 to $5 pb of reserves can be increased to $6 to $8 pb.
360m barrels at a mid point $7 pb (less 50%) = $1.26 billion divided by $1.4 = 1 GBP = £900m divided by current shares in issue = 92 m
£9.78
lets be super conservative and reduce by 50% = £4.89 - length of time to extract oil, it's a lot of oil !!
and lets be ridiculous in our outlook and reduce by a further 50% = £2.44 - due to the costs to drill 200 wells
and 50% for Mum = £2.22 - good chance of more shares to be placed
Yes, I think you can make a good return here :) a conservative 20-30 bagger
MiddleEastMoney I do so hope you are right. I have an average of around 5.4p but your figures kind of blow my mind at £1.20 I’m all cashed in and retired with over 1.5m of these babies. I just wished I had listened to someone earlier at 3p.
We will just have to wait and see but Colin and the BOD are top of there game and when they have their own money invested you know they intend to make it work.
944T
Mind you I just cut and pasted it and put it on telegram and the guys blasted it out the water as under drivel and couldn’t make head nor tails of his Calcs .lol mind you it did waken a quite board . Think I will be listening to them if I honest far far more knowledgeable.
944T
We have discussed the SP nd value of the company and I’ve always maintained we will hit. £1 by April and £2 by mid to end of the year.
The prospects here is phenomenal and I agree full heartedly with MEM and his calculations based on his recoverable %.
C.H has based his recoverable estimates on 7% . This is why the guy is seen as more down to earth also one who can be trusted.
What are the drivers behind your SP estimate of ~£1 around April time? Apologies as I haven't been on LSE for a few months since buying in at 3p and sitting back and watching the SP climb nicely.
Love your enthusiasm AND your mathematics MEM !
Who cares if your DD and projections are right or wrong ?
Despite many ifs , buts and maybe`s , I will say that you are 100% correct about one thing ~~~
The share price is most definitely going to go up !
Mathematics aside , (and I loved your arbitrary 50% off here and there !) this Company has a lot of associated positives going for it . I also suspect and hope , that once moment does start to build on proven activity , results and investment , it could gather quite a head of steam very quickly .
GLA
This share has and will continue to make people serious money, but £1 by April is just a ridiculous thing to say. I'd personally be over the moon if 15p by April.
Me too, 15p would be great. £1 per share is a ridiculous estimation
I agree £1 or £2 is fantasy stuff.
Ok we did this on the AFC board and many will be miles out I will kick it off by April next year I will estimate a sp of 12p (this is assuming we don't get bought out). If we do get bought to before then 50p per share.
We can refer to this in April. Cut and paste your name after mine...
bought out sp
RiskyBusiness1. 12p. 50p
Biggest problem with this calculation apart from the arbitrary 50% adjustments is that you have used the market cap of £92m for the number of shares in issue. The actual number is 1.29 bn. Makes a bit of a difference!!!!
We can refer to this in April. Cut and paste your name after mine...
bought out sp
RiskyBusiness1. 12p. 50p
GPKing46. 15p £1
Yes only a 93 million is circa 7 per cent of 1.29 billion so at that stage the equation goes out the window!
We can refer to this in April. Cut and paste your name after mine...
bought out sp
RiskyBusiness1. 12p. 50p
GPKing46. 15p £1
Adon30. 17.5p. 75p.
Don’t think oil will still be at $83 come April 2022…. This could be in double figures come the end of November then steady rise as future plans released.
£1 by April ain’t ridiculous at all.
If there is a billion barrels within the Paradox and the recoverable rates are as predicted, we will hit that figure.
We will know soon enough. When the SP was at 0.5p it was discussed and there were some predictions made, based on C.H and his beliefs, I said it would hit 5p, like others on this BB, who agreed, we’re laughed at.
It’s now 7p that by my calculations is 14x.
In my opinion it is not ridiculous at all, not one little bit.
There is 1.29b shares.
At a recoverable rate of 7%, suggested by C.H to be 143m/b/o, at this current price of $85
That equates to a possible figure of $1,215,500,000
That’s at 7% , this is a very conservative figure by C.H and that’s what I like about the guy he keeps predictions below the bare minimum.
There is nothing wrong with being ambitious The Bhoys, but the market cap moving from £92m to £1.29billion in the space of six months is the stuff of dreams……..but like Airdrie winning the SPL!!!
Maybe one day it will get there, but unlikely in short to medium term.
Kenny
Hell nice intervention with that conversation killer. Not worth debating pal.
I was invested in Rockhopper at 40p the SP shot up to £2 then £5 within months. That was stuff that dreams are made of.
It does happen.
Kenny
On top of that figure I posted you have got non operated profits. That’s currently at 500b/p/d it will be higher than that now.
Then you have other wells coming on line in the coming months up to 22 of them.
When you start doing the mathematics it gets really interesting and exciting at what prospects we do indeed have.
We are simply in a marvellous position.
SOU went from under 10p to just over £1 in a matter of months b4 it collapsed so yes it can and does happen.
That a good example MrB.
The current SP is not what some individuals will have expected or be happy about but this has always been the case with our company.
It was at 5.6p prior to getting news, that the completion team was on sight, it went to 6.3p then 7.8p before retracing back to 7.1p.
Come Friday, after update, it will bounce back up. It’s still hard to believe given our current situation, non production assets and wells coming on line in the next 6 months, we should be up considerably higher, then you have the Paradox on top.
It’s purely down to us having the continued patience and confidence in our management team.
I can say hand on heart I have never had any doubts whatsoever, non at all.
I think they call that, having the C.H factor or influence.
The Bhoys, I agree it does happen and it has happened with Zephyr. In the example you give of Rockhopper they became a five bagger and then a 12 bagger.
Zephyr was 0.89p at the beginning of the year and are now a tad over 7p. It has already become a 8 bagger and if it gets to say 12p in April it will have become a 13 bagger which is better than the Rockhopper example. What I do not know to make a fair comparison is at which stage in Rockhopper’s development was it 40p.
Discussion without realism is fantasy. If it got to £1 that would represent a 112 bag in little over a year and a £1.3billion market cap..
For what it is worth, I think it may get to 10p by year end if this weeks results are favourable and once the potential value of Oil within the Zephyr portfolio has been reassessed by year end it may get to 12p by April.
However, I hope that you are right and I am wrong, because in the immortal words of Del Boy, this time next year Rodney, we will be millionaires!!! Sadly, I fear that it is not going to happen, but we should be really excited if it gets to 12p as it represents a fantastic return if you bought in early doors.
Kenny
You are way out on your figures,IMO of course, but we shall leave it at that for now. Ive been on this juggernaut now for quite sometime and such is my belief that I will be retired by December of this year, 3 years earlier, and it’s all down to Zephyr.
I thought it would be one of my other holdings MCRO,GSK or even LLOY but not ZPHR.
Such is life it doesn’t matter how we get there, the main thing is we do.
All the best pal
Kennymac If St Johnstone can win the cup double anything is possible!