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It feels like I have gone back to 2021 when we saw a smiling Colin, feeling confident, in front of Katie, which made me invest more than I probably should have done. The good news is that I do believe that my faith in him and the company he leads, will be rewarded, though I have questioned that along the way.
It looks as if we are going to have a good finish today. Looking forward to the presentation tomorrow and hope that the SP has not got to 3p today to create a floor for a capital raise announcement. I have a feeling in my water that there may indeed be a raise, but I hope against hope that I am wrong as the raise in Jan 2022 was when it all started to go pear shape.
I thought it might be useful to collate all our questions submitted to TP under one subject, so that we can ensure that we have covered all the bases.
So I will kick it off with mine.
Considering the challenges faced with the original drilling of 36-2 how confident are you that history will not repeat itself? Also assuming that you have another winter in Utah similar to 2022/23 when can you realistically see the new well coming into testing and production?. The concern of course is that it could be deep into Q2 next year and whether you will have sufficient revenues available from the non operated assets to meet the exploratory costs and normal business overheads and or whether you will have to raise additional capital. A big concern as we have not yet recovered from the last capital raise!!
Kaeren
I agree with you. This will need very limited marketing. I am one of these people who will avail myself of the test asap. Following an investigation for another type of cancer, the PET scan showed up an anomaly on my prostate. My PSA result is 1.1 which is very low, but has a less than 50% accuracy and I do not have the usual waterworks symptoms associated with prostate cancer. The surgeon agreed that it makes no sense at the moment to go through an invasive biopsy procedure which can have some severe after effects. However, it left a question mark as to have I got it or haven’t I. Now with a test available that is 94% accurate, it is a no brainier for me to have it. It is cheaper for my medical insurance company to agree to it than me having a biopsy, so a no brainier for them as well. This test will be requested by everyone with suspected prostate cancer, rather than having to go through a biopsy, in the first instance. It will be the first action even before an MRI scan.
It is already monetised with the medical insurance reimbursement codes and will be marketed within the various medical journals by the end of the month. The patients like it and it will save money for the insurers and it will save lives. What is not to like?
Penstock
Thanks for your post. Another fact to bear on mind is that at 31 March 2023 they had a retained deficit in excess of £30m, and you can only pay dividends out of retained earnings. Clearly the higher production and more favourable price receiver per ton of coal produced will eat into the deficit, but unlikely to eliminate it this year. Also they had under £500 k in cash in March, so they need to build that up too, and most likely pay off the debt before making dividend payments.
So I think dividends are at least another twelve or more months away.
Great photo on Zephyr’s Twitter account showing how the piping has been twisted and destroyed, and therefore goes some way to understanding why this is such a long drawn out recovery process. Hope the following link works.
https://x.com/zephyrenergyplc/status/1697489463671246968?s=43&t=mOaOUdG201B1W5T0HU4sXA
Setanta, I totally agree with what you say. I have waited patiently through the 18 months, and totally regret that I did not follow the Bhoys in selling down in January, an act he got lampooned for on the BB, but must be laughing his face off now!!
Regrettably, I feel that CH is a “Good News” only CEO, as there has not been a presentation for some time. To the non oilers, today’s RNS leaves many questions to be answered and I believe that the company should give it’s shareholders the opportunity to fully understand the likely consequences of this blow out. I will write to him in due course, but it would be better, if he updated us on the current state of affairs regarding all the assets, and was willing to answer questions, including those related to the pipeline.
SCE2 on form today! Two things he has said that I totally agree with. Firstly that the market will only be impressed with production rather than drilling, and that has been evidenced by the flaccid share price for the last 12 months or so and also pointing out what CH said in the interview.
Lets hope we do not get back down into the 5’s, although it would give the Bhoys a great opportunity to re-invest!!
SpArmada from previous RNS “ The new Ordinary Shares will be subject to a lock-up period which will expire at the earlier of the date that first gas from the State 36-2 LNW-CC well is sold via the Dominion Energy 16-inch gas export pipeline or 15 December 2023”
Should have read Rocky Standard Oil, not Rocky Mountain!
Straightforward RNS, but we should take comfort from the fact that Rocky Mountain would have carried out substantive Due Diligence on Zephyr to ensure that their shareholding would provide extremely good value. They will possess a lot more info than we currently have, and if they are relaxed about the current state of affairs, so am I.
Earl of Aim, you have been very optimistic for a long period of time, which can be good, if your optimism pays off. However, with this management team, it never does, and their deadlines are never met, which makes it hard to believe anything they say. The same as the fool who kept pushing the 10p by Xmas every week and every month since mid year 2022.
What Carl says on the SR podcasts can be taken with a pinch of salt, and I really do not understand why they never challenge him.
I would be happy with 12p by Dec 31 this year, and would be happy if they could stay above 7p for longer than a couple of days, the next time they breach it!
SCE If you want to fully understand the cause of the well influx kick, its causes and why they use flaring then Google “how to dispose of the well influx kick” and hopefully that will answer your questions. Easier you do that, than me explaining it to you. You will find the answers to all your questions on there.
The first I do when reading an RNS is look at the first paragraph to see whether it says pleased or delighted to provide an update, it was not there, so the palms got sweaty. However, as I read and re-read the RNS it became clear that whilst clearly there are challenges due to the drill landing in a high pressure Zone, creating the influx, which can be dangerous and difficult to control, our management had done their contingency planning and had the correctly rated surface equipment to handle and control the high pressure in place, and as a result were able to have the well under control and flaring off the gas to remove the influx from the well.
It is clear that they are able to recover a substantial amount of hydrocarbons from the current depth, without fracking and may set production casing or use other techniques such as Managed Pressure Drilling to do so. They are a class act and the faith that we had in the Management is being rewarded.
Nice to see a happy Bulletin Board today, even SCH2EAUX was almost positive, and there was no nastiness as we had witnessed in the past couple of weeks as patience was wearing thin.
Open a bottle to celebrate a big step forward today!!
Sadly this was just a piece of necessary admin that will have no affect on the SP. There have been a couple on here and on Twitter who kept going on about 10p and 20p by Christmas., with one counting down the days like an Advent Calendar. He must have been a very naughty boy, as Santa is not going to deliver. We will be fortunate to stay above 5p.
Non revenue producing stocks always struggle post a fund raise, and the price invariably drops below the placing price which I think was 6p here. Oh yes that was the issue of shares that could never happen. Well done Steven for calling that one correctly.
Anyhow so long as production does happen in Q1 2023 and it is sold and paid for then we may see 10p next Christmas!
Drop D, That is my take as well which is brilliant when you consider treasury stocks are yielding under 4%. I like Adam, I like the business and it is one to be locked away in the pension fund, that loves dividends.
Shatner, I liked the answer to that question, as the most important five letter word in business is focus and they are totally focussed on Met Coal. The question I referred to was one I sent during the presentation, as I know that Adam cannot make any forward looking projections, but I just asked for the monthly variable and fixed costs, so that I could work out my own estimates of Cash Flow and Ebitda, having made my own assumptions re the price attained for Met Coal, now that I have an idea of production.
Rak, The trains are not an issue. He has got 4 booked for December and Adam, who is a top guy covered the subject very well. They can stockpile as much as they need, but recognise it is best converted to Cash. As I suspected, this investment is a dividend yield stock, rather than a capital growth stock. First dividend in June 2023, followed by larger one in December 2023. I will await others thoughts on the presentation before posting mine. Adam was good, the hosts were shambolic and unprofessional. I cannot believe Kevin almost lying horizontal in his chair sipping presumably coke. Phil did not answer my question and waste of time submitting them. Need to up their game if they are to succeed. Willing to coach Phil and Kevin!!!!!
Correction . Presentation on Monday and you need to register