Member Info for Kennymac2610

SCE2 on form today! Two things he has said that I totally agree with. Firstly that the market will only be impressed with production rather than drilling, and that has been evidenced by the flaccid share price for the last 12 months or so and also pointing out what CH said in the interview.
Lets hope we do not get back down into the 5’s, although it would give the Bhoys a great opportunity to re-invest!!

SpArmada from previous RNS “ The new Ordinary Shares will be subject to a lock-up period which will expire at the earlier of the date that first gas from the State 36-2 LNW-CC well is sold via the Dominion Energy 16-inch gas export pipeline or 15 December 2023”

Should have read Rocky Standard Oil, not Rocky Mountain!

Straightforward RNS, but we should take comfort from the fact that Rocky Mountain would have carried out substantive Due Diligence on Zephyr to ensure that their shareholding would provide extremely good value. They will possess a lot more info than we currently have, and if they are relaxed about the current state of affairs, so am I.

Earl of Aim, you have been very optimistic for a long period of time, which can be good, if your optimism pays off. However, with this management team, it never does, and their deadlines are never met, which makes it hard to believe anything they say. The same as the fool who kept pushing the 10p by Xmas every week and every month since mid year 2022.
What Carl says on the SR podcasts can be taken with a pinch of salt, and I really do not understand why they never challenge him.

I would be happy with 12p by Dec 31 this year, and would be happy if they could stay above 7p for longer than a couple of days, the next time they breach it!

SCE If you want to fully understand the cause of the well influx kick, its causes and why they use flaring then Google “how to dispose of the well influx kick” and hopefully that will answer your questions. Easier you do that, than me explaining it to you. You will find the answers to all your questions on there.

The first I do when reading an RNS is look at the first paragraph to see whether it says pleased or delighted to provide an update, it was not there, so the palms got sweaty. However, as I read and re-read the RNS it became clear that whilst clearly there are challenges due to the drill landing in a high pressure Zone, creating the influx, which can be dangerous and difficult to control, our management had done their contingency planning and had the correctly rated surface equipment to handle and control the high pressure in place, and as a result were able to have the well under control and flaring off the gas to remove the influx from the well.
It is clear that they are able to recover a substantial amount of hydrocarbons from the current depth, without fracking and may set production casing or use other techniques such as Managed Pressure Drilling to do so. They are a class act and the faith that we had in the Management is being rewarded.
Nice to see a happy Bulletin Board today, even SCH2EAUX was almost positive, and there was no nastiness as we had witnessed in the past couple of weeks as patience was wearing thin.

Open a bottle to celebrate a big step forward today!!

Sadly this was just a piece of necessary admin that will have no affect on the SP. There have been a couple on here and on Twitter who kept going on about 10p and 20p by Christmas., with one counting down the days like an Advent Calendar. He must have been a very naughty boy, as Santa is not going to deliver. We will be fortunate to stay above 5p.
Non revenue producing stocks always struggle post a fund raise, and the price invariably drops below the placing price which I think was 6p here. Oh yes that was the issue of shares that could never happen. Well done Steven for calling that one correctly.
Anyhow so long as production does happen in Q1 2023 and it is sold and paid for then we may see 10p next Christmas!

Drop D, That is my take as well which is brilliant when you consider treasury stocks are yielding under 4%. I like Adam, I like the business and it is one to be locked away in the pension fund, that loves dividends.

Shatner, I liked the answer to that question, as the most important five letter word in business is focus and they are totally focussed on Met Coal. The question I referred to was one I sent during the presentation, as I know that Adam cannot make any forward looking projections, but I just asked for the monthly variable and fixed costs, so that I could work out my own estimates of Cash Flow and Ebitda, having made my own assumptions re the price attained for Met Coal, now that I have an idea of production.

Rak, The trains are not an issue. He has got 4 booked for December and Adam, who is a top guy covered the subject very well. They can stockpile as much as they need, but recognise it is best converted to Cash. As I suspected, this investment is a dividend yield stock, rather than a capital growth stock. First dividend in June 2023, followed by larger one in December 2023. I will await others thoughts on the presentation before posting mine. Adam was good, the hosts were shambolic and unprofessional. I cannot believe Kevin almost lying horizontal in his chair sipping presumably coke. Phil did not answer my question and waste of time submitting them. Need to up their game if they are to succeed. Willing to coach Phil and Kevin!!!!!

Correction . Presentation on Monday and you need to register

Presentation on Tuesday next week at 18:00. There is an opportunity to submit questions which we should take advantage of, to validate assumptions or address concerns expressed on this BB.
They should be sent to admin@thesundayroast.net

Setanta, i know where you are coming from but a 7.55% increase today is very acceptable. The big question for me is will it get over 6p. That seems to have been our barrier. Normally you have a resistance level on the downside, not the upside!
The day it closes at 6.10 I shall open a bottle of champagne and toast IG for making me laugh with her comments during these last boring couple of months.

It was pretty obvious that they were going to run out of cash before they made any sales. As I said back in March, cash is not generated from stockpiles. As per usual on AIM the PI's are not given an opportunity to participate so we just have to swallow our 25% dilution, and not get the benefit of the warrants. So looking forward to hearing from Reg and Grant81 how the Houdini act of issuing more shares was achieved, when they kept knocking back the idea that they could be issued.
So who has the "broken record" now Grant? Maybe your forecasts of 20p before Xmas could be challenging now.

BigbadBob and Penstock, thanks for sharing your thoughts on the SP etc and what you say makes sense. One of my concerns is that there is only 25% of the shares in free float, with the other 75% held by three close parties. This means that no Investment funds/houses will get involved, so it is only PI's that hold the 25% and you can see that most days it is only small piddly trades, none of which moves the needle. What are your thoughts on that?
As far as The Sunday Roast is concerned, it is always good to hear Adam talk about the project. However, the interviews are always through rose tinted glasses, on BC and every other company that presents, and they are never challenged by the two guys, therefore making it fairly meaningless for investment purposes.

Penstock, Thanks for all the information you recently posted which is very useful.
My major concern relates to the ability to attract any large external investors other than JS who drove the SP to the top of the hill and drove it down again! You mention something similar in your post and the fact that someone like Mittal or Integrity would be good to have on board. I think a big issue which I readily admit, I had originally overlooked is that only 26.7% of the shares are in the "free market", with 73.3% held by three internal parties. Two difficulties with this is that it is unlikely that a fund or institutional investor would be interested in acquiring a shareholding because of the overbearing influence that could be exerted by the three internal shareholders and secondly if MBU decided to sell some of their shares they would depress the market.
I would be interested to hear your own views on this scenario.

The Bhoys, You should know that you should never set a deadline for this share in particular, as you will never meet it!
Also, we should never be chasing an RNS for Zephyr as invariably when it arrives the SP drops. The Sp is not going to move materially upwards in my view until the Paradox starts producing, and the proceeds are going into our bank account. Until then, and I hope it is before the end of first weeks trading in January, just sit tight and chew your nails, like I do.

Micru
I am sure that is indeed the case.