The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Presentation on Tuesday next week at 18:00. There is an opportunity to submit questions which we should take advantage of, to validate assumptions or address concerns expressed on this BB.
They should be sent to admin@thesundayroast.net
Setanta, i know where you are coming from but a 7.55% increase today is very acceptable. The big question for me is will it get over 6p. That seems to have been our barrier. Normally you have a resistance level on the downside, not the upside!
The day it closes at 6.10 I shall open a bottle of champagne and toast IG for making me laugh with her comments during these last boring couple of months.
It was pretty obvious that they were going to run out of cash before they made any sales. As I said back in March, cash is not generated from stockpiles. As per usual on AIM the PI's are not given an opportunity to participate so we just have to swallow our 25% dilution, and not get the benefit of the warrants. So looking forward to hearing from Reg and Grant81 how the Houdini act of issuing more shares was achieved, when they kept knocking back the idea that they could be issued.
So who has the "broken record" now Grant? Maybe your forecasts of 20p before Xmas could be challenging now.
BigbadBob and Penstock, thanks for sharing your thoughts on the SP etc and what you say makes sense. One of my concerns is that there is only 25% of the shares in free float, with the other 75% held by three close parties. This means that no Investment funds/houses will get involved, so it is only PI's that hold the 25% and you can see that most days it is only small piddly trades, none of which moves the needle. What are your thoughts on that?
As far as The Sunday Roast is concerned, it is always good to hear Adam talk about the project. However, the interviews are always through rose tinted glasses, on BC and every other company that presents, and they are never challenged by the two guys, therefore making it fairly meaningless for investment purposes.
Penstock, Thanks for all the information you recently posted which is very useful.
My major concern relates to the ability to attract any large external investors other than JS who drove the SP to the top of the hill and drove it down again! You mention something similar in your post and the fact that someone like Mittal or Integrity would be good to have on board. I think a big issue which I readily admit, I had originally overlooked is that only 26.7% of the shares are in the "free market", with 73.3% held by three internal parties. Two difficulties with this is that it is unlikely that a fund or institutional investor would be interested in acquiring a shareholding because of the overbearing influence that could be exerted by the three internal shareholders and secondly if MBU decided to sell some of their shares they would depress the market.
I would be interested to hear your own views on this scenario.
The Bhoys, You should know that you should never set a deadline for this share in particular, as you will never meet it!
Also, we should never be chasing an RNS for Zephyr as invariably when it arrives the SP drops. The Sp is not going to move materially upwards in my view until the Paradox starts producing, and the proceeds are going into our bank account. Until then, and I hope it is before the end of first weeks trading in January, just sit tight and chew your nails, like I do.
Micru
I am sure that is indeed the case.
Just a text response to give reassurance that they are not going private, and even if MBU wanted to, they would have to bid a minimum of 88p. I assume that is a contractual amount based on the high price they paid for shares in the past.
Like I said I am reassured by the response, so will just hang onto my shareholding and wait for the revenues and profits to come through, which should move the share price, although the holding of just over 70% by three parties will hold the price back, as it is too close to the 75% shareholding that you do not want to see.
Dartron
I know nothing about Atlantic coal but I guess I am going to find out!!
Yes I did and got response within two hours.
Very impressed Joeman
My concerns regarding the possibility of the company been taken private has been allayed. I can rest easy as that was my biggest concern after reading the RNS.
You are correct that the imbalance of control was already there, it is just that I had not focussed on it. It was only the RNS that highlighted that three groups who obviously have a close relationship now own over 70% of the shares, and it is rarely good news especially the closer they get to 75%.
In fairness, I have been involved from the beginning. I like Adam, and I trust that he would always look after the interests of the PI’s, but the risks are there.
I have taken the opportunity to write to him to see if he can allay any fears or concerns that PI’s like ourselves could have. He could do this in any future corporate presentation or podcast.
Biggest benefit of taking it private is to buy the remaining shares at a relatively low price, albeit at a premium to the current price. That then enables the shareholders to ultimately sell the company in due course, maximising their returns.
Sorry for obvious typo. Should be “ challenge” him ……
What the RNS has highlighted to me is that it appears that 70.53% of the shares are held by three groups of shareholders, giving them significant influence. These are MBU 57.67%, Bluestar 3.98% and the Directors 8.88%.
This is perilously close to 75% at which level the shareholders have significant control and in effect it is almost a privately held company.
The most likely event in my opinion, is for it to be initially taken totally private rather than sold to a third party.
I am sure that Adam will appear on the Sunday Roast to talk about the fund raise and they should chalke get him on this point. I hope I am wrong as I have a significant holding, but it is only now following the RNS that the penny has dropped. As for the dividend they obviously do not have enough cash to buy the equipment without a fund raise, or so it would appear, therefore the fabled dividend must be in doubt?
The Bhoys
I have always admired your enthusiasm for the business and its management. However, you have been providing positive feedback from when the SP was almost 8p to almost 3p, which in many respects is admirable. In the meantime i have seen my shareholding drop £300k in value, so you may understand that i am not quite as enthusiastic as you, though i have followed your PATIENCE mantra and become one of these LTH's who may regret. In my opinion the oomph! has gone from the shares and once again highlights that if you do a market raise you will get clobbered. Have management played a blinder ? What has the the fabled 16-2 produced??? What if the other three wells are like 16-2, where does that leave us? The non operated wells have been a huge success, but lets be honest, that is not the reason we invested in Zephyr. We invested for Paradox. The management team have done well up to six months ago, but my concern is whether the knowing and doing gap is becoming apparent. I have my fingers and toes crossed that if I sit tight I will get the rewards that you predict.
I agree that Adam is a class act and you can easily see the difference between Ben and CGO who are another Met coal miner covered by the Sunday Roast boys. Adam not only had a great strategy, he has effectively implemented it. No knowing and doing gap in his management capability.
As far as the share price is concerned we need Captain Haggis back on the bulletin board…….. he was the lucky charm!
Evan, Does that take account of the hedging?
If the share price keeps heading back below 4p, it would be ripe for a buyout at a ludicrous price.
Thought it was first class and very different to his other presentations, which tend to be more glossy. Answered my questions on corporate investors, need for more corporate updates and potential to move to main market all of which should move the SP if it is addressed. It was a great opportunity for the doubting Thomases to have their concerns and questions answered. Onwards and Upwards I hope.