Member Info for Kennymac2610

Just a text response to give reassurance that they are not going private, and even if MBU wanted to, they would have to bid a minimum of 88p. I assume that is a contractual amount based on the high price they paid for shares in the past.
Like I said I am reassured by the response, so will just hang onto my shareholding and wait for the revenues and profits to come through, which should move the share price, although the holding of just over 70% by three parties will hold the price back, as it is too close to the 75% shareholding that you do not want to see.

Dartron

I know nothing about Atlantic coal but I guess I am going to find out!!

Yes I did and got response within two hours.

Very impressed Joeman

My concerns regarding the possibility of the company been taken private has been allayed. I can rest easy as that was my biggest concern after reading the RNS.

You are correct that the imbalance of control was already there, it is just that I had not focussed on it. It was only the RNS that highlighted that three groups who obviously have a close relationship now own over 70% of the shares, and it is rarely good news especially the closer they get to 75%.

In fairness, I have been involved from the beginning. I like Adam, and I trust that he would always look after the interests of the PI’s, but the risks are there.

I have taken the opportunity to write to him to see if he can allay any fears or concerns that PI’s like ourselves could have. He could do this in any future corporate presentation or podcast.

Biggest benefit of taking it private is to buy the remaining shares at a relatively low price, albeit at a premium to the current price. That then enables the shareholders to ultimately sell the company in due course, maximising their returns.

Sorry for obvious typo. Should be “ challenge” him ……

What the RNS has highlighted to me is that it appears that 70.53% of the shares are held by three groups of shareholders, giving them significant influence. These are MBU 57.67%, Bluestar 3.98% and the Directors 8.88%.

This is perilously close to 75% at which level the shareholders have significant control and in effect it is almost a privately held company.

The most likely event in my opinion, is for it to be initially taken totally private rather than sold to a third party.

I am sure that Adam will appear on the Sunday Roast to talk about the fund raise and they should chalke get him on this point. I hope I am wrong as I have a significant holding, but it is only now following the RNS that the penny has dropped. As for the dividend they obviously do not have enough cash to buy the equipment without a fund raise, or so it would appear, therefore the fabled dividend must be in doubt?

The Bhoys
I have always admired your enthusiasm for the business and its management. However, you have been providing positive feedback from when the SP was almost 8p to almost 3p, which in many respects is admirable. In the meantime i have seen my shareholding drop £300k in value, so you may understand that i am not quite as enthusiastic as you, though i have followed your PATIENCE mantra and become one of these LTH's who may regret. In my opinion the oomph! has gone from the shares and once again highlights that if you do a market raise you will get clobbered. Have management played a blinder ? What has the the fabled 16-2 produced??? What if the other three wells are like 16-2, where does that leave us? The non operated wells have been a huge success, but lets be honest, that is not the reason we invested in Zephyr. We invested for Paradox. The management team have done well up to six months ago, but my concern is whether the knowing and doing gap is becoming apparent. I have my fingers and toes crossed that if I sit tight I will get the rewards that you predict.

I agree that Adam is a class act and you can easily see the difference between Ben and CGO who are another Met coal miner covered by the Sunday Roast boys. Adam not only had a great strategy, he has effectively implemented it. No knowing and doing gap in his management capability.

As far as the share price is concerned we need Captain Haggis back on the bulletin board…….. he was the lucky charm!

Evan, Does that take account of the hedging?

If the share price keeps heading back below 4p, it would be ripe for a buyout at a ludicrous price.

Thought it was first class and very different to his other presentations, which tend to be more glossy. Answered my questions on corporate investors, need for more corporate updates and potential to move to main market all of which should move the SP if it is addressed. It was a great opportunity for the doubting Thomases to have their concerns and questions answered. Onwards and Upwards I hope.

The biggest issue still remains that whilst I accept they are in production, they are not receiving one cent of revenue. That is serious bad management and shows a complete lack of strategic nous. Until they have an off take agreement in place, they are eating into their cash reserves, and the SP will not move forward. Just my opinion.

MEM, I agree that it was an enlightening interview and hopefully the market will now have a better understanding of the future potential/realistic value of this share. Pleased that he covered the positives I had raised in a previous post.
Well done on your share flip.

Womo
I think you have the formula cracked and there must be mathematicians on here who could work it out. My calculator cannot cope with the numbers!

In order to get people excited again and love our company, what do you think that the initial prospective resource estimate of 203m boe would be worth to Zephyr if the three wells prove it?

Excuse some of the typos. Hate predictive text.

Malcy is doing an interview with Colin today which should be enlightening. Hopefully it should answer the concerns about they CPR and make it clearer. The total 2P reserves of $111m has been confirmed as being $88.4m from the Williston non operated wells, reflecting an increase of $42m from what was previously reported and the balance of $22.6m from the Paradox.
When valuing a producer, the advice I have been given is that initially you look at the 2P and 2C values which before Zephyr would be $170m for the paradox and $88m for the Williston making a total of $258m or just over £200m. That is more than twice the existing market cap and is the reason that this fact needs to be explained to the market.

We should not forget than on top of the above, Zephyr was given an initial prospective resource estimate, in the mid case of 203m boe. That’s is a staggering amount and would result in many multiples in value. However, it needs to be tested, and that will happen before the end of the year when the three new wells are drilled.

So imho as a result of the CPR, it can be seen that the company is currently undervalued, and the excitement will be when the prospective resource is converted to a 2P or 2C resource later in the year.

It has been a painful two days, but I am sure that once the CPR has been properly explained to shareholders, we will once again witness nice blue days, which is why the Malcy interview will be compulsive viewing.

P Manuel
My sincere apologies, you are absolutely right, that the RNS reads as you say that the combined P2 Reserves are $111m.
The $46m for Williston comes from the 22 Nov, 21 RNS.
I will contact the company and ask how they arrive at the $111m, split between Paradox and Williston.

That changes what I previously wrote, so until I get to the bottom of the numbers, it is best to ignore.