The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Ascot may see an infill drill programme of the high grade part as well as RC, as was hinted they would do so by Colin. Could that imply working toward a second conceptual pit? I think so, as there has been a metallurgy test work sample already taken with plan to take further sample/s from Ascot which is normally only done when mine planning and for financial evaluation. As it has been made clear that both pits are being looked at as being completely separate, they would want to show economic viability on individual merit, and for pay back possibilities of CapEx for both too.
ART, I totally agree about the 2Mt. I think a 1.0-1.5Mt mine can be perfectly profitable (though the more the better). Even better would be if Ascot can then be mined without having to pay for any capex.
Sorry, I hit the wrong key and my post posted itself before I was finished.
Let me continue.
If XTR does hit the 2 million tons of contained copper that will have an in-ground value of a staggering $18 Billion - more than twice the value of the GGP asset when their m/cap hit its high.
Even if XTR only have 1 million tons of contained copper, at maybe a higher %, then the asset will still be worth a staggering $9.5 Billion and still more than the GGP resource at the time of their JORC.
This is what CB was getting so enthusiastic about and in truth it is only because of the target set by Anglo American, which possibly is more than they thought is actually going to be there, that the project has such a lowish valuation.
Unfortunately, the 2 million tons of contained CU has become a bit of a millstone. 1 million tons is a huge prospect, 1.5 million tons even more so, but the way that AA have left it if the target falls short it will be as if the project is almost worthless.
At times during last week's podcast it sounded as if CB was getting a bit carried away when he kept repeating how big an asset XTR have in the Bushranger prospect. However on thinking about it I see where he is coming from and that it is actually just the market that is underestimating and undervaluing the asset. Also some of the confusion must lie with the way that AA left this prospect under the previous ownership.
At the time of the GGP maiden resource estimate the m/cap rose to well over £1 Billion and the in-ground value of the JORC'ed resource was around $7 Billion. If XTR
'Colin has also made several comments about Manicas surrounding properties in respect to alluvial mining'
AS - now that you mention it I vaguely recall him saying something like that. Makes sense, although I wonder how much we'd get from concentrate not on our licence.
Still, we have ~7 years worth to churn through at FB so that will keep them busy whilst they sort out other deals.
Sherron said “The three other ‘deposits’ they are going after”
Could Empress be looking at their usual capital investment, bigger plant to increase production capabilities at GF,Boa and DL
All parties would gain
Gixxer I think you're correct about own processing equipment for other deposits.
"Currently, FB plant is designed to handle only oxides, Chinese partnering with Explorator on Sulphide prospects are likely using cyanidation on a very modest scale to treat their ore."
Reading that it looks as if it is based on Manica rather than Fairbride. Apologies for not keeping up. Too many deals !.
Has some info on targets and exploration work.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/44033/auroch-minerals-ahead-of-the-game-with-mozambique-gold-project-acquisition--52540.html
This mentions the satellite deposits but it is unclear if Empress will benefit.
https://empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/6157/emprnr2021-13_manicaclosing.pdf
The sedar report produced for Empress in March last year only covers Fairbride.
Your theory does make sense Andrew - I imagine we would have been informed had the geo's been doing anything more than 'turning over rocks' at Manica.
Saying that, I imagine they will be full gas processing FB ore. Would they have to wash out the whole plant to run the Chinese, satellite mine, ore individually to ensure separation of gold?
Just curious but why would Empress get a royalty out of GF etc ?. Surely there contract is with Fairbride.
But could that % for MMP not be increased and agreement not be changed if FB was used to processes the ore? The "three additional deposits" did seem to imply the known three in the area?
Maybe the recovery in new state of the art plant would be better for the Chinese to use? Or nearer?
I could be way off here and maybe the additional three deposits are all new.
As I say, just a thought, until we get some clarification?
Back in 2011 Jan said
"Jan Nelson, Chief Executive Officer of Pan African, commented: "The Manica
project now represents a 3Moz deposit, which is significant as there are not
many gold deposits in Africa in excess of 3Moz, which outcrop on surface.
Significant strike-length remains to be tested".
But don't tell Ant, let him buy UK gilts as someone needs to. Gold going up, sterling going down. Every little bit helps as they say.
'Seems more than a coincidence that there is three satellites near: DL BE and GF' - Could be, one would imagine the Chinese already have processing equipment on site as we have had some gold out of the satellite mine.
Just had a look back through some RNS's however there's next to no info: '· Guy Fawkes development continued during the period '
Hi Andrew
MMP already get 35% of the GF & BE income due to XTR from the contracts with the Chinese.
Cheers
James
Woodyer said there are three additional deposits. Seems more than a coincidence that there is three satellites near: DL BE and GF
Would it not be likely that the FB processing plant could be used for these other three deposits? The Chinese could still mine the Gold at BE and GF but its then processed at FB?? MMP, Chinese and Xtract all benefit?
Just guessing so we need clarification from CB.
We really could do with an INDEPTH DETAILED update on assets before the AGM!
Not sure TBH but the 'other deposits' comment is intriguing - I know CB has made the odd comment regarding the Geo down there, perhaps they already have areas of potential interest?
Thanks for the link.
I would assume the other deposit would include Dots Luck??
9mins in if you don't want to watch it all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ5XWhIe2gU&t=5s&ab_channel=RedCloudFinancialServicesInc.
A new interview mentioning FB coming online shortly. Interesting to note that they discuss 'satellite' deposits.
'The plan at the moment is based on one deposit (I assume that is FB) next is three additional deposits. We were actually in Mozambique 10 days ago looking at the project. We walked the ground and saw where all the other deposits are that they plan on going after also. so we think this one is going to have a lot longer life. (not verbatim).
For newbies it should be mentioned that the Manica site is quite large and there's a lot of potential for further exploration when funds allow.
Interesting they are discussing other deposits. Cannot be GF et al as that deal is with another company, unless they plan to process?
It's really crap that we get this info from a 3rd party and not from Xtract! - Comms/pr is extremely poor considering what can be achieved with small effort through social media.
i think it was either something to do jan nelson getting involved or possibly the north sea thing
-'i do remember quite a few years ago these rising 175% one day ,can't remember what for.''..
Probably the one time CB met a deliverable....
I vaguely remember that too Gixer, but would go with the s/p rise cause probably being some speil about something bottom line big going live imminently far more than achieving a deliverable :-)
I'll get my coat too..
I agree with you joeman.
Why publish a detailed model of RC maybe + ascot that takes us over 2mt until cb is sure he’s leaving nothing major out of the deal?
Publishing that puts us straight into a negotiation with AA
No harm playing a bit hard to get - I think he wants to sell to AA
He’s getting them interested , if every month goes by we are adding resource value and we have plenty of cash-flow to continue drilling with Fairbride, it may be in AAs interest to make a decent offer sooner rather wait 6 months until we might declare 4 or 5mt equivalent.
We are effectively in the negotiating or pre negotiation stage so it’s cat and mouse.
With Fair bride income any potential buyer knows we have all the time in the world should we need it - so Colin is right to flag up that possibility of exploring Footrot etc - it would just encourage a buyer to give a solid price for a 2mt figure now , which I’m sure most of us in reality would be v happy with
For me that’s 20-25p for bushranger , leaving 5 to 6p as value of the rump of xtr
Would that require a separate RNS !
Come on Fairbride, bring us the gold.