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I do find the current situation nerve racking. The basis of that is the lack of updates relating to news we would expect to now be available: IP results, drilling progress, assays and other news. I have been here before and the end result is not usually good. However, I find it difficult to see how XTR is not going to pan out to the benefit of shareholders. We have income (which is essentially the most critical characteristic of any successful company) and resources in the ground that are both in demand and not going anywhere unless XTR says so.
We can argue about the value of those resources but as long as a major miner feels the grades are sufficient to make it worthwhile mining then the sp is way below the current value.
But that brings me back to why we have not heard about news that should have been available weeks ago. I accept that things can be happening behind the curtain but surely with the sp where it is now it would pay to let some of this be revealed to maintain interest. Surely not all of it would have a detrimental effect of discussions with a third party.
Hence my jangled nerves - I'd like to top up here when funds become available in the next month or two but do I have the nerves of steel?
Only time will tell.
Totally agree Steve,
If we summerise the various RNS that have been released, including the annual results, we know.
- That Manica(empress) has entered production.
- That the alluivials and hardrock are sporadic (vary quarter by quarter) but are increasing very strongly.
- That Footrot was about to drilled (to date of the annual result)
- That more infill drilling was required at racecourse (the JORC and model will obviously be dependent on this so will be sept-oct).
- That they wanted to do a deep drill at Ascot. (the jorc and model for ascot will be dependent on this).
- Zambia is currently being tested to determine which material is best suited for easy-local production.
I certainly have a few questions around where we are with drilling and assays at BR. Maybe some more clarity re which Quarter the model and JORC's will be released in. In total though we have been told most things to some degree.
The major positive points as far as i can see are that might fall.
1. Footrot assay finding good-excellent mineralisation.
2. deeper ascot result finding strong mineralisation (I was on record as saying on here that a well placed drill at Ascot will find some truly stunning results.)
3. very good revenue figures from gold sales.
4. possible interest by 3rd parties in Bushranger.
5. Good (but expected) results from the infill drilling of Racecourse. I am looking forward to 300-500m of strong shallow mineralisation.
Will these things improve the SP? who knows but with the fall on low volume, it doesn't take a genius to see that a fairer market with a bit of buying sees a bounce back to 5p-6p.
As always just IMO.
Great posts today Steve, that’s pretty much where my heads at. No mad rush to sell in current climate, if we’ve got the funds and budget, keep on at it and explore / expand the optionality - but communicate with shareholders if this is the new direction!
Whilst we’ve had news recently, it’s certainly not been the consistency / frequency of the past couple of years, with lots of holes / feedback / IP / drill locations missing and news we have had clearly contradicts what CB said in interviews earlier in the year about state of play with project.
This coupled with general market conditions and falling copper prices is pushing price down and it’ll probably keep going (much as I hate to say it!)
When I say Radio silence, I was referring to interviews, which have seemed to have died off, after the glut previously. I realise market conditions are not great at present, but I can`t see why we had all the hype and weekly interviews, for it now to be silent.
"Given the current copper price, I can't see a sale happening quickly"
Before the POC drop, I didnt think there would be a quick sale as there was still work to be done, probably more work than CB had implied tbh. I was thinking Q1 2023.
However, I dont think the drop in POC will affect this time scale for sale, as I'm sure the major prospective buyer has a better understanding on 2030+ POC than most :)
Those that are selling are probably not giving our situation much thought and are adding 2+2 and getting 22, If we were a copper producer now, then that would be a concern.
>> what I find the most concerning is the radio silence
I'm not sure what you mean by this - we had a detailed report on all company activities only a week ago.
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-AR2021.pdf
Given the current copper price, I can't see a sale happening quickly. Based on the above, it looks like a district, so with income with Manica we may as well do some more drilling while we wait for general market conditions to improve.
Unlike almost all other small explorers, we have sufficient income to fund exploration, so there is no time pressure. CB confirmed above that there would be no raise for 12 months. He said the same thing a year ago and kept his word.
Or to quote Kipling "If you can wait, and not be tired by waiting", then you will very likely make a good profit here.
Hi Iceberg,
Any thoughts on Savannah resources news today? I bought in years ago at about 10p / share, I've waited and waited and losing patience but with wait even longer now.
Steve, I agree about the volume, but what I find the most concerning is the radio silence, after the regular interviews and the hype, which I have personally never seen before on any share that I have invested in, so I really hope it comes good or his credibility will be totally shattered in my eyes. GLA
I'll repost something I posted earlier on telegram:
We are down 3% at the moment but volume is only 360k traded (1 share in every 2600)
We might have had a large fall recently but it was on very low volumes of sells. Almost all of the LTH seem to be continuing to hold. For example, since the end of May there were 5 days with less than 1m volume, 8 days with less than 1.5m, 4 days with less than 2m and 5 days with less than 2.5m. The only day with more was July 1st. For reference, 2m volume is about 0.25% or about 1 share in 425. I recall several of those days where the price fell with buys greater than sells.
In other words, there is no significant selling. Just a drifting price. Don't let that affect your confidence if you are well researched.
I really hope Colin delivers the deal of all deals soon, as the erosion of the SP is not confidence building, especially with all his hype and many, many interviews but now all silent. GLA for a great outcome.
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-07-05/Zimbabwe-to-introduce-gold-coins-as-local-currency-tumbles.html
At least we have a ready market for our gold next door.
At the incredible bargain of 4p a share at the moment, anything you buy today will be an easy double your money if/when we hit as little as 8p. A figure most of us have considered a bargain price in itself for the last few years!
While we wait…
On the next page in the year report (7) is a panoramic wintry shot showing both rigs. Bit more challenging, but I’m certain I have the location nailed. Won’t share just yet, but if there is anyone else with too much time on their hands or have the urge to work it out, good luck.
It is also nearly 6 weeks since any genuine new news from Bushranger… they must be a stockpile of news re drill holes, assays and the IP survey.
Throw us a bone CB!
Maybe Two RNS’ due soon???
I believe that it stated in the full year accounts that the AGM will be held this month? If so, then we should get a calling notice this week as shareholders have to be given at least 3 weeks notice.
Also, depending on Q2 Alluvial results, we may get these late next week? If they are good or better than good, then they are usually released 2 weeks after the period ends.
If we dont get Q2 results this month then I suspect they will be decent / reasonable at best.
The AGM should be very interesting this month.
>>>Thankfully the prospective buyer will realise that todays POC is not critical .... but the POC in 2030s :)<<
Hi Andrew :-) I have been looking into future copper demand. As we know, It is reckoned that roughly 20% more will be needed by the end of the decade. Some aggregate figures that I have seen show year on year increase of projected demand to be even more than that. The shift in social acceptance is a serious driver toward a greener planet that will see a tipping point and will drive up demand dramatically in the same way that a social world that was defined by horses could not fully anticipate a world defined by automobiles, the increase in the near future of the world’s copper requirements may even exceed current optimistic forecasts. Agree, 2030 prices will be much inflated over all time highs for sure. There is a lot I don’t fully understand but this pull back in commodity prices fuelled by slow economic growth and the fallout from covid will be short to mid term, that is pretty much a given too.
Butler
It may take until September / October with results, before the market realises we are a Gold producer at Manica with FB, as CB seems to want to keep that quiet at the moment :)
Andrew - maybe the market realises that we are now a gold producer. Manica revenue, if it is what we lead to believe, would surely put a floor on the share price?
Bloodbath today in commodities. Surprised we are only 1% down with the big sells.
I guess some dont realise we will not be a producer until 10 years time and the POC then is what counts
Thankfully the prospective buyer will realise that todays POC is not critical .... but the POC in 2030s :)
Copper down 4% AA down 7% today. Maybe we can buy them?
Major Floods in New South wales. Would that not effect progress in our small adfitional drilling program with even more delays. No fault of CB of course.
I think it is perfectly reasonable and logical to believe that informal discussions with AA and others are in progress.
Knowing when to stop is the hallmark of a great artist... so when to stop?
The concern with stopping too soon is that we don't get fair value for Ascot, Footrot and other prospects yet to be even named! But here is where the 80/20 buy back clause could work to our advantage. AA, and any independent expert valuer, are likely to base their 80% value almost exclusively on the deposits with a JORC compliant resource estimate i.e. Racecourse. But that doesn't mean XTR has to do the same when it comes to valuing their remaining 20% stake. XTR can put its' own price tag on that and that can include a premium for deposits that are not measured but strongly indicate the buyer would be getting a Cadiaesque multi-porphyry system. Of course, we need to whet their appetite we some evidence of the potential, but that won't require a 'death by a thousand cuts' exploration programme.
I think we are close to stopping and I am even hopeful that XTR may have already begun informal discussions with AA.
AIMHO.
That location they are drilling in the photo could well be hole 52 for all we know.
Sometimes it’s not what CB actually says in interview, most of which is pre determined and specific, whatever his agenda maybe perceived as being. It’s the odd remarks here and there that give real insight into what they are trying to achieve. Such as the, “if we had found ascot first” comment which to me is a very significant comment in that it strongly indicates (to me anyway) that they will not be proving up Ascot and associated gold systems anymore that what was planned in building some kind of resource there etc. The same can be said of any further porphyry identified.
Or buy more !. I am loathe to do so but there are decent assets (we hope) underpinning current valuations and potentially a big cherry on top with Ascot etc.