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Is a month old but can’t recall it being posted up before.
Is the 12 stocks portfolio update with xtract mentioned on 19mins.
Nothing we don’t already know, but listened to along with the understanding from most recent posts on gold production this morning in mind. Also, bear in mind the podcast was released before the share price slid down even further into the 3’s to just drive home how undervalued the share price is now against production only.
The gold income will be so compelling to the potential upside value of market cap and yet ‘still’ without the Oz asset factoring yet in real company value.
https://podcasts.google.com?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwNjQ0MzcucnNz&episode=dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMi0wNi0yNTovcG9zdHMvODEwOTM5Mg%3D%3D
Something will give soon and if the markets turn soon, companies like Xtract will be in such a strong position anyway to underpin a strong market cap with solid income to value it by.
>>And if CB actually tells the market, the SP may even rise :) - and in a actual meaningful way, i.e. more effort that a poorly worded RNS or a half arsed Tweet....
The graphical stuff that Empress are putting out ATM is quite impressive. I imagine there are many companies that produce this sort of thing these days!
So £6million a year profit roughly.
I nearly have .5% that's 30k a year for me!
Colin, I accept checks or straight transfer, can I have mine monthly though?
My assumptions below are based on previous info and CBs previous interviews:
Possible FB income now assuming $1700 POG
Assuming POG 1700
Production tax (6%) 102
Direct cash costs (CB said 560 official but call it 600) 600
Prod tax + Direct cash costs 702
Tax (32%) (32% of profit) 319
Net Profit per ounce 679
Margin % 40
100kg Gold a month = 3200 troy oz
Xtract get 23% = 736 toz
40% margin = net to xtract =294 toz
Monthly profit in $ (assuming $1700)(294 x 1700) $500,000
Monthly profit in £ £414,000 (USING 0.83 conversion)
CB said in an interview about 2 years ago, the margin at FB would be between 40% and 50%. So 40% margin seems reasonable. It would be 42% margin at $1900 POG. In other interviews, when POG was higher, he’s also stated $500K to $600K a month from FB which is also consistent with circa $500k a month.
£414K free cash flow may not be as much as some very optimistic figures I've seen (no doubt gross figures and not FCF) , but that monthly amount CLEAR PROFIT, will be transformational for a company of our current MC.
And if CB actually tells the market, the SP may even rise :)
Thanks Steve.
BTW Jezzoo I noticed you joined the smaller of the two XTR telegram groups. I sent you a link to the larger group by private telegram chat.
23% of 'operating profit', although the definition of that has never been very clear. I'm fairly sure it doesn't include any capital expenditure and hopefully not depreciation, etc.
"MMP will receive 77% of all the operating profit produced from the permitted area through the performance of the contract by MMP when the prevailing price of Gold is greater than US$1,250 per ounce. For the purposes of the Collaboration Agreement, "profit" is defined as: Revenue on Sale less deductible costs (excluding non-cash items) and corporation tax."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-hard-rock-collaboration-agreement-ghoo8qdt7s68ji6.html
That's $4.3m of gold a month
WHat percentage do we get, I forget as it's complicated.
There should be plenty of gold being produced very soon.
Pre production announcement by Empress was 13 June - 5 weeks ago.
Just to remind us after pre production phase we are ramping up to:
•480,000 of ore tonnes per annum mined
•Average grade 2.72 g/t mined
So soon we should be at 100 tonnes processed per day per RNS 4 Sep 2019 on agreement with MMP "Commercial production is defined in the Collaboration Agreement as a being installation of a processing plant with a throughput capacity of not less than 29,000 tonnes per month (being 70% of the planned 42,000 tonnes per month throughput)."
This year included China releasing some of its strategic stocks to support the market...... next year who knows what will happen....
But 'experts' predicting deficits from next year onwards.... getting sharper each year...
Just had a look at the 5 year lme copper warehouse stock levels. There is an obvious pattern with the stock levels and looking at it, we will see the lowest levels this winter. I expect to see higher copper prices this winter even in a recession.
Yes that would be something! Some good fortune with 38 to intercept the gold veins, followed up with the correlation from 39. This last hole of phase 2 is a really important hole, couldn’t come at a better time with gold forecast for a bullish run. The success of this hole, particularly if the evidence suggests a deep gold system below the surface intrusion, accurate targeting will be from the culmination of all the experience gained throughout both phases. The geos will earn their money with this one, if they get it right, and with a little luck, it will be a massive tick for a buyer, huge implications for the financial model and longevity of life of mine as will be for Racecourse too.
Bear in mind the processing plant, tailings dam , the whole production facility, that will service both pits has ‘already’ been shown from the current 71mt resource financial model, that it will all be paid for, before ‘ANY’ phase 1 or 2 data has been added!
Drilling started with nearly a km of copper mineralisation, it would be fitting and quite frankly rude not to end with a km deep gold system.
How deep will it go? Must be about 1k down by now (gold all the way??) and getting towards the end of phase 2.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Commodities-To-Benefit-From-Chinas-Stimulus-Plan.html
Like you, I am keeping an eye on events in China. Will be interesting to see if they increase the rhetoric at the China National Congress over Taiwan. But that could be a positive for gold in 2023 and help us, assuming we are at full production in Moz. Still don't understand why our gold assets in Moz aren't promoted to the market more. A regular flow of RNS's would help awareness if not the immediate shareprice.
Id like to see a pic on the website with Colin holding a dory bar....... might be enough gold produced to do this already
Colin, it cant be too much hotter in Mozambique than the UK at the moment. great opportunity to arrive already acclimatized.
Something I’ve not seen discussed, though I may have missed it......since the first conceptual model in July 2021 the Australian dollar has weakened by about 8% vs the US dollar. That means more A$ for each lb of copper sold. So revenue goes up but costs, which are all in A$ for BR, remain constant. Thanks to that operational leverage, the NPV in A$ goes up significantly. At the same time the break-even point drops - no longer US$5 per lb, say, but maybe $4 (say). No doubt there will be arguments made about long term vs short term FX rates, and of course AUD vs GBP, but it’s a point worth noting.
Howezap, it would also be good to understand what there hasn’t been a notice of AGM date published yet.
So we ‘may’ or may not have a podcast this week after a comment posted on telegram from Kev Hornsby about catching up with Colin.
What could we expect if so?
Decent update on Fairbride for starters, and from the other producing mines would be well received.
Comment on last year report and financial position.
Projects in the pipeline maybe.
There will not be much he would be willing to divulge that we don’t already know from Oz. Maybe confirm end of drilling, and go over again what they need to do next.
Reiterate target. (Bites lip)
Not expecting any prior RNS, then to be backed up with interview. Not expecting an interview tbh but a general update would be welcome to steady some nerves if there is.
But certainly news on initial start up progress from Fairbride.
Received its first income from Tahuehueto today. Tahuehueto went into pre production a month before manica. Obviously they are different projects with different methods, but it's probably not unreasonable that they will get manica income in 4 weeks time. That will be roughly 2 months from pre start. Hopefully xtr will start to get income from next month.
Cheers Flipper, I’ve never really thought about it like that. No idea when it’ll pick up, that’s the joy of investing. Few key aspects that I’m looking out for:
Chinas National Congress and potential exit from zero covid.
NATO countries working out that it might be a good idea to invest in alternative / green ways of getting energy and moving away from oil / gas dependency as quickly as possible.
Suspect it’ll be towards end of 2022 for these.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Technology-vs-Scarcity-The-Worrying-Reality-Of-Exponential-Growth.html
This also shows the scale of the problem. But when will metals/copper recover ?. At the moment, looking across mining shares, the markets isn't interested. Plenty of otherwise sound exploration companies will struggle if they need to raise cash at the moment.
Great report to get your heads around the scale of what’s coming down the track
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2022
Copper price has dropped off for the past 30 years during recessions and people will trade off this basis. But given the huge investment in electricity that’s coming, it won’t last and will have to start tracking up.
Now off to get my shopping before the tarmac melts....
"Do you honestly think Kjeld and team will get out of bed for £1.8m which is 1% of 180m????"
Hi Bauhouse,
Thanks for asking for my thoughts. Unfortunately my thoughts are irrelevant. It's the numbers that matter. I laid out a very simple equation and you just have to plug your own numbers in. When I did so I made it clear that I was being very conservative (and incidentally only considering RC ) but I invite you to do the same. Get back to us with your thoughts, numbers and expected sp and we can see what you think Kjeld will get out of bed for.
Regards.