Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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But before I set fire to the house, you would likely bargain for 15k?
Screen, that's human nature! If I said to you, jump out of this second floor window, I'll give you 10k. You would unlikely risk breaking your legs or death for 10k? Now if I set fire to the house, you would likely jump out for nothing, right?
It is interesting that people's expectations of the value of the company seem to change along with the current share price, so some would be now happy with a figure thought risable before. I'm not convinced that the recent news and drop in SP have really changed the true value of the company, which I continue to believe is much higher. Obviously IMHO only. DYOR!
Would very much prefer 15p+. 20p ideal.
Fingers crossed we are very clear about direction by the end of the year.
I have been watching with incredulity over the past few days. It is calming to hear from you Steve about the MM forced drop. It was too tempting not to take one final final top up this morning - annoyingly someone took 19k just before and pushed the price up. Only 15,000 but it pushes me over the 500k mark (shares, not value!)
Hope everyone is keeping cool/enjoying the sunshine.
Cygnus - I can't see Racecourse being less than 1.5mt. And then Ascot and Footrot need to be factored in (even if fairly heavily discounted), which should boost the amount significantly.
I'd also add another step in your calculation, which is to knock off 20% because that is what XTR keep. If they want our 20% as well, then we're not going to sell it 'at cost' and can name our own price. So we should add a substantial premium to the calculation for that.
And let's also not forget that we also hold the neighbouring licences that are not subject to the buy back clause. XTR get to name their price for those too and if we can't get a huge premium for them, then we should keep them and start exploring!
The ups and downs of the SP over the last year or so have, understandably, taken it's toll on shareholder confidence re the potential value of the Bushranger project. However, I personally think the consensus has become way too negative and the potential reward remains much higher than most would now settle for. Come on comrades... chins up!
Thanks.
For me a lowball offer would be about 12p for the Company. But agreed, 10p cash at the moment would be very tempting.
Hi flipper I would think by not releasing the updated/completed resource and pit concept models, it will only compound the opinion that, as you say the lack of belief that the 2mt target has maybe not been met.
More so if we then go into a third exploration phase.
I don’t see the 2mt not being met, even if RC is short then there will be a decent resource modelled from Ascot too, that will push the overall resource estimate up. I had the opinion originally that the 2mt had to come from RC alone but am more open minded now. However the decision to mine would cover it. I’m not suggesting we need to eliminate AA from the table, I believe with the quality of the data pack the company are putting together AA will not want be turn it down.
Steve4077 may be able to share his opinion on a company takeover but a agree with others opinions that it’s more doubtful than not.
He did indeed, but that was when he was getting carried away with talk of 1e9tonnes.
L250 - Either or if I'm honest! :)
Bias from me though as I plan an early retirement soon!
Previously....Colin said he would tell AA where to shove their 10p, so I think he wants more.
Gixxer, is that 10p for the whole company or just BR?
>>I would take 15p absolute minimum.
I imagine 90% of SH would take 15p ATM. (I'd take 10p for a sale before year end TBH)
If we end up with an NPV of around $1B, should see a sale price of around $300M?
No chance flipper. The majority of the large holders here wouldn't sell cheap and even if they did, we don't hold enough to out vote the real big holders. If you take 10 regular holders here, you would be lucky to get to 7% of the company. Colin, with all his options etc would have around a 5% stake i think.
I would take 15p absolute minimum.
Howezap - if AA turn us down because we haven't reached the 2mt target, if we release the information, wouldn't we be an easy takeover target in a dire market ?. Other companies could just finish the feasibility study and wait for the market to recover . Given the current sentiment from this board I think most would accept a lowball cash offer !.
Steve,
There was a lot of talk about this about 6 to 9 months ago.
The simple sums, assuming AA wanted to buy are:
If the asset is 1.5 MT (could be more) x
an assumed Cu price of $7500 per tonne (could be more) x
convert to $ (say ~ x 0.8)
an assumed value ratio of 2% (value of asset that AA will pay for metal in the ground - could be more)
divide by the number of shares, ~ 1 Bilion, gives
18p a share.
Clealry, if asset is bigger, if price of Cu is higher, if being in a safe, convenient location increases the % value to AA then that number should be higher.
All IMHO
>>>Come on Colin ..... get the model out..... the time has come...
If they are collating all information covertly into the models as and when it comes in, once complete, if, the plan has not changed as to approaching AA then would it be more likely the resource and pit models would be released to the market without the need then to release all the individual aspects.
If this is ‘arguably’ what we are led to understand, from CB’s comments, then one important question is at what point, before or after approaching Anglo will the final models be shared?
Just an observation point of view on some suggestions the company should just carry on drilling while we wait for the market to pick up. If the strategy remains that is seeing xtract wanting to enter into negotiations with a closed deck, then would have to wonder how the next year of drilling will to be played out in terms of reporting with that strategy in place. That’s why I can’t see that scenario being played out while Anglo have first refusal, the priority is to get them to commit to one or both the options. If the buy back is nullified, through whatever legit means, then further exploration could maybe then be a possibility thereafter.
You can easily sell and buy 500k.
Havnt seen that before. Normally it's one or the other.
And as soon as I post that, there is another 50k buy and the price moves up slightly :)
>> You would think so, except there are quite a few days days where buying is exceeding selling and the price still goes down
Just to follow up on this. I normally post detail on telegram but I thought it was worth posting here. We had a 50k UT at 8am, which was a sell at 3.12p.
Since then we have had nine trades, including eight buys for 230,000 total plus a single sell of just 500 shares. The Ask continued to drop throughout that time, with the first buy at 3.26p and the last buy at 3.21p. Normally, buys cause the price to rise but I've seen this same pattern now for a few weeks. The price is being pushed down with minimal or zero selling and happens quite regularly on days with greater buying than selling. Anyone with access to L2 can see the same.
There is nothing we can do about MMs moving the price around, and eventually it will go back up, but in the meantime it is important to bear in mind that the price is not falling due to significant selling.
What are people thinking the value of xtract will be when the time come to sell?
So, this is the lowest the SP has been since the first hole into BR in January 2021. That 18 months.
We seem to be getting a mid-day RNS on Thursdays, I hope today is no exception and we get a large discovery hole in the depths of Ascot, with high visible mineralisation!!!
Can't think of any other news due at the moment that could cause a nice rise unless its a stonking Assay result.
Gordie,
Brilliant link. I admit I hadn't read the distinctions between the tiers.
Colin constantly saying our BR is Tier 1 was just a way of saying 'really big un'...... but I see the distinctions now.
Come on Colin ..... get the model out..... the time has come...
If you look at the likes of bhp and Anglo, they have fallen by 30% recently. It’s hardly a surprise if small cap aim companies like xtr (and most others) have fallen by 40-50%.
It has nothing to do with the projects nor the company imo.
Anyone heard from CE? Been a while now. Hope all is well!