The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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As soon as you said that, Copper started falling and is now back at the opening price :)
Coppers rising nicely today. Inventories will be dwindling soon. New all time high in the next 6 months is my bet.
Hi IWTO thank you for correcting me on that one was sure it didnt effect the resource estimate! It’s obviously the recoverable ore and not the total mass of rock.
Sometimes the obvious can be right in front of you but just don’t click. Cheers
I’m still hopeful of decent copper from the bulk of the lower grades. My theory is based on some research that suggests the disposition of the lower grades that ore in the higher grade crown are not proportional to its disposition within the lower graded parts of the resource. That is, the higher graded parts of the resource has more concentrate of higher grades than lower, particularly within the crown.
I’m hoping from the new modelling it shows a greater percentage increase over the conceptual study figures. Wether or not it will actually have a material effect on the amount of contained copper is to be seen, but in theory it should.
I have been doing some research on it for what seems like months and tbh I’ve lost the will to live! Every porphyry is different.
Cheers
Guy
Hi Howezap, the cut-off certainly does affect the resource estimate. With a 0.3% cut- off, anything below 0.3% is “waste”, anything above is ore. When the cut-off is reduced to 0.15%, the material between 0.15% and 0.3% is now treated as ore, with the amount of waste (and strip ratio) correspondingly reducing.
Going back to the July 2021 model, we originally had 71Mt at 0.44% yielding 0.31Mt of Cu. When the cut-off is reduced to 0.15%, with no other changes, the amount of ore increases from 71Mt to 162Mt, now yielding 0.41Mt of Cu. It’s all there in the RNS. That’s why I think we probably have more than 500Mt of ore - we have one third of that already from the JORC’d resource, with P1 and P2 drilling in addition. Cheers.
Matching vol with trade on 4 Aug @3.45 which was discussed due to TNCP indicator
TNCP trade type so likely investment firm. Probably needs someone with L2 to determine buy / sell
25.08.22 11:49:46 3.75 GBX 2,100,000 78,750.00 Off-Book TNCP ECHO XOFF
That should be "over" not wrong!
Could it not just be a large sell that's been worked out wrong the last few days and that's the average price?
Could it be colins salary in issue of shares?
Or would that have to be rns'd prior?
Correction: 3.77p. I forgot the dealing costs were included.
Well, I just had a small top up at 3.79 on the punt that it's CB who is topping up having delivered the AGM !
Don't see much down side here at this price.
It look like a buy at 3.75p x 2.1M
£79K buy?? It looks like it.
CB ???
Was there any mention at the AGM of the IP resistivity survey results that were due to be published months ago?
Seems XTR is either sitting on them or wants to keep them quiet. If either of those situations is correct then I'm not sure why. I guess one solution is they are appear to be good but CB does not want to publish good news into a poor market and have a 24 hour boost followed by a month of drift? Just musing.
Does anybody have anything to add on this subject from the AGM?
Hi iWTO thank you for your reasoning. The 3D resource modelling has a greater impact as it follows the mineralisation trends throughout the resource so will make a big difference to the overall numbers. Otherwise if your were just going by the average grade for each hole you would just need a calculator. I’m not saying it will all be at .44 I never have btw. But I do think the final amount of contained copper may surprise a few. Or I certainly hope at least from my understanding.
Yes sorry the grade factor comment I made was not quite how I meant it lol. Read twice post once
Just one small point, reducing the cut off has no bearing or influence on the resource estimate (500mt) But hey, that’s huge amount of ore, and with the later holes into Ascot that saw an extra 100m plunge added and a final hole to the southern extent that could both potentially add heaps to the already identified resource. Could we be close to an estimated 1billion tonne combined?
Indeed Andrew.. fine post.. and in line with my hopes too...
Tangible bottom line profitability is massive in the AIM game these days.... and by this Nov. 3p plus of this share price could readily be for Fairbride / Africa bottom line, I'm hoping !
(What Bushranger adds around then I wouldn't even hazard a guess.. but I do get that it could be a total gamechanger 'in due course'.. although if Fairbride was delivering as we hope and xtr.l s/p was still in 3'sp around Nov. time, Ted and the gang would likely still be attributing all that 3's p to Bushranger in their comparatives analysis, I'll guess :-) )
Howezap, I think your argument is flawed. Firstly, it is only the original 71Mt resource (@0.3% cut-off) that has been measured at 0.44%. That gives about 0.3Mt of Cu. Then we already know that dropping from a 0.3% cut-off to 0.15% for that same resource adds an extra 0.1Mt of Cu, to give 0.41Mt. That’s from the published open-pit modelling July 2021. (That resource then averages about 0.295% btw).
Since then, hardly any assays have been around the 0.4% mark. Any significant runs of mineralization have been lower - 0.2%, 0.3%, etc. So it’s simply not possible to get to 0.44% overall for the whole of RC. In fact I’d be very surprised if we weren’t at 0.2-0.25%, allowing for the “averaging down” effect of the lowest grade ore (0.15% etc).
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the 20Mt x 25 year statement from CB turn out to be 25Mt x 25 - because it’s financially beneficial to crunch through rock at a faster rate. I think it’s quite possible that 625Mt is down there, given the 0.15% cut-off. You are quite right, of course, to say overall tonnage of Cu is the most important thing, provided the low grades don’t make it economically unviable.
Hi lucky let me please have one more crack at why RC grades will be potentially a lot higher than .33%Cu. from your post
>> Pleased with the 25@20! that's 1.65mt at .33 ?Add on ascot and we could have 2/2.5/3mt. ?Could be more ar RC if the grade is higher but I doubt it.?
Here’s a fact, The average grade of porphyry copper ore is about 0.4%Cu, with the ‘larger proportion’ of ore minerals being less than 2 percent of the total volume of the ore rock with progressively more ore the lower the grade.
You are still trying to determine the amount of in ground copper by guessing the average grade% When in fact it is the amount of economic recoverable copper within a defined resource that determines the average grade%. Not the other way round. As I have said before, there is substantially more copper in ground the lower the grades are reduced. This is why the low economic cut off of 0.15%Cu is key to this extra copper volume. And the grade factor (.44) is not a assay drill average but the percentage of recoverable copper within the resource.
Jeremy Reid clearly states in the Ascot discovery webinar right at the very end that they estimate 2mtCuEq will come from RC with a resource of about 450mt @ 0.44%Cu hopefully confirmed now with CB’s revaluation of a mine potential of 500mt (25yrs x20mtpa).
Have another listen from about 23mins to end with Colin stating 2mt and shortly after Jeremy Reid confirms the point by also saying once all the assays are put into the model it determines the amount of copper. Which of course then, the copper % within the resource is then calculated.
https://youtu.be/QJ8b--rhvRI
"I think *current* production at Fairbride was stated as 20kg per month by both Colin and Joel. That is increasing over time with full (commercial) production by Nov/Dec."
Lets say Dec before full production.
So that's 20kg a month increase from Sept to Dec (Cb said 100kg a month in full production).
100kg a month is about £400K to £450k FCF (EX all costs and taxes so clear profit)
So circa £80K to £90K clear profit a month now and £80K/£90K extra every month up to December.
Assuming linear progression
Should be over £500K a month clear profit by December from FB + alluvials + small HR plant
IMHO
Thanks Steve for that latest post ( and Andmillsy too for his post below ) High quality posters, both.
quick update from Empress just now on FB
https://youtu.be/CpHKwa0iAyg?t=480
There was a line of questioning about 3 year versus 5 year versus longer mine life at the AGM.
Positive comments about potential to expand from 3 years is supported by Empress statements in the Youtube clip from 8 mins for 1 min.
Thanks to all the people who attended and made notes, hopefully more news to come, in the not to distant future. GLA
I think *current* production at Fairbride was stated as 20kg per month by both Colin and Joel. That is increasing over time with full (commercial) production by Nov/Dec.
I'd like to add my thanks for AGM feedback too.. especially to andmillsy..
As previously stated, my main focus for Sept and Oct was going to be Fairbride 'Ard income :
Re andmillsy feedback from yesterday : ''Fairbride is progressing well and income should be received in Nov / Dec with commercial production.''
After previous CB steer I was hoping for Oct for first meaningful income .... I'm now beginning to think I should listen to Empress timeframe predictions only.. after all, CB's timeframe predictions have spoken for themselves over the years :-)
But, if not expected full commercial levels, even something semi decent in terms of Oct. Fairbride Income could still happen ..maybe/hopefully.. and that would be very useful in itself
For the updates from the AGM.
It sounds like Oct Nov are the money months, probably starting in Sept for the SP rise with FOM.
Copper price should have recovered to 8500-9500 by then.
Very happy with everything tbh.
Many thanks for the AGM updates.
Interesting article on copper prices
https://www.mining.com/two-charts-show-copper-price-drop-may-have-been-overdone/