Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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Started: metis20, 13 Jun 2024 12:49
Last post: LSBM, 19 Jun 2024 09:46
Also, the FT's forecast is encouraging if you haven't seen it. https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=SRB:LSE
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SRB/agm-statement/16518564
definitely worth a read
AGM is tomorrow. Will be interesting to see whether more colour is added to these positive results.
Serabi. From Tamesis note: 30 May 2024.
Outlook. The company re-iterated guidance in their last quarterly update. The Brazilian Real has weakened to the US dollar since March to 5.10 vs Q1’s average of 4.95. The effect of this will come through in the reported figures for Q2, which will lower the cost, and improve their earnings. Q2 will also see the benefit from the strong gold price as well, at an average price $2,339/oz from 1 April – 29 May, with spot at $2,340/oz. The capital light expansion via the crusher and ore-sorter remains on track for Q4. The ore sorter cleared customs in April and has been delivered to site, and ground works required for installing the crushing plant and the related infrastructure are underway. The costs from the mine development and the expansion at Coringa are upfront costs, and the benefits will be realised in Q4 and onwards, through improved grades from ore-sorting and the flow through to reduced trucking and processing costs per ounce. Furthermore, we expect mining rates and processing to continue to be strong.
Investment Case
Tailwinds from the weaker Brazilian Real and strong gold price are expected to deliver a strong Q2. We estimate group production of 39koz in FY24, and rising to 45koz in FY25. At spot pricing, the growing production profile delivers an EBITDA of $39.6m and $52.9m for FY24 and FY25 respectively. This translates to an EV/EBITDA of 1.5x and 1.1x, and PE of 2.1x and 1.5x. We maintain our target price of 110pps.
You are right.
Well. what was unique about Shanta was it happened during this long depressed period for gold miners and before the big move in gold prices to new all time highs. They got it away just in time.
It's certainly a risk all the whilst sentiment remains so poor for gold miners but there's every reason that that will change over the sort of time horizon you're alluding to here.
All looking good - but I'm worried because of the similarities to Shanta.
SHG spent years developing a new mine and that was a drain on profits. Once the mine was in production, SHG was highly profitable and as soon as that happened, the shareholders had the company taken from them and never got the rewards that should have come to them after years of waiting.
I hope that won't be what happens to Serabi, but experience has taught me - when you invest on the AIM expect to be robbed.
Not sure that was clever
Most of my Gold mining shares today, but held on to SRB which appears to be bucking the downward trend. Ash on BullionVa... makes some good points today as to what's happening re Gold.
Last post: pedro61, 3 Jun 2024 08:42
150p would be a good time .......not before...
For years may not be a good idea with Gold miners. SRB is up 141% over the last year; maybe there's one more good year in the pipeline?? There also has to be a good time to take a profit.
Last post: pedro61, 22 May 2024 21:07
Or belong in the nuthouse....
lol pacifico only those who are well versed in the ancient art bull5h1tt0 and tae****0, if you find yourself in that demographic then that's your own personal journey to work on.
so long as i keep being right who cares what the perpetual rampers and trolls think, some of us live in the real world with real people.
I do enjoy reading the ADVFN chat but here is way more useful 🙂
HarChris. Keep posting. I and many others here enjoy your well researched posts.
Beware: Bushy is a trouble maker and has been instigating agro against posters here since he very recently started to post on SRB.
HarChris. Take no notice of them/him.....Just not worthwhile.....Keep posting your factual content which is helpful. We have on this board some very good posters who give great evidence of the value in the share. We have BigBiteNow who goes into great detail and obviously does have great knowledge and we have your very knowledgeable posts where you dissect the financial position and prospects so well. Bangrak, who on other shares has previously written with great knowledge ,will no doubt,be soon giving his opinion. This is a great board,that should keep to the narrative,which is the value and prospects of the company,which is so transparently,undervalued on every metric. In my opinion,we have troll/trolls trying to destroy the narrative. When asked by Bangrak to give their reasons for negativity,they respond with total silence,instead ,they come out with personal attacks. Why is that?....... HarChris ...All intelligent investors on this board appreciate your posts....Please keep posting as the Bully/bullies must not not win by intimidation. The more the"30 rules for bashing" brigade try to intimidate the more we should ignore them and post facts.
Started: BigBiteNow, 19 May 2024 10:23
Last post: BushyTailed, 21 May 2024 08:52
In fact I might start copying and pasting some of his posts on here, they're quite to toe curlers ever since he was wiped out for 99% in BMN.
He should change his name to blind guess chris, I'm sure he can manage just one extra account more.
Multi posters?
i had um,on another board,a few years back....the same style down to t
Pedro, we aren't 'bashing' the stock. We are bashing you. There is a difference. Calling out a scammer is always a just cause.
S.P. seems to be receiving good support...As it should do at this market cap. and rising gold price....
It looks like the "crew" is back in town. IBAB2. How are you doing? Have you mastered the "30 golden rules for good bashing" that you posted in March,yet?.... Certainly looks like you are making a good go of it? Bushytailed .....IBAB....and others the same poster ...as that is one of the rules that was mentioned...Have multiple identities... Both Harchris and Bigbite now are respected and well informed posters....Bangkrak is well respected ,and has a fantastic track record....Somebody I try to follow...
Started: bangrak, 19 May 2024 04:19
Last post: BushyTailed, 19 May 2024 10:23
Met support and bounced off the 100MA but 20ma has inverted towards a death cross with the 50ma.
Short term resistance at 62.5p. decent gain if you added on Thursday/Friday last week.
As a value investor, I've been drawn to this one based on analyst forecasts and calculations of my own. The recent drop has drawn more attention from me so I've opened an initial position on that drop to get me interested. What i find frustrating is when i look on a BB to gain further insights & find arguments back and forth with no real analysis or fundamentals to back it up. It looks like a pumper-and-dumper BB.
Why doesn't the king of negativity post a summary of why you should not buy this giving specific details (not feelings) and the king of positivity does the opposite? Im sure even experienced investors who generally invest larger sums would find this interesting. I'm very much in favour of alerting people to inaccuracies in analysis both ways. I'm not an expert in SRB at all but i could be if i have a full picture. I get most of the positives here but would appreciate more of the negatives. If anyone can help i would appreciate reading this. Thanks
Started: austrochris, 17 May 2024 09:43
Last post: donmac101, 17 May 2024 21:21
And gold price hits $2416
And awaaaay bounce back.
I am adding ! Thanks for more cheap shares !
Started: BushyTailed, 16 May 2024 16:06
Last post: proctalgia, 17 May 2024 08:48
Stockopedia rank = 100 i.e. top of all UK shares
BushyKnob. You were spouting the same rubbish when this was 22p,so nobody on here will listen. Money in bank and cash generation makes this a stand out share.Increase in goldprice achieved goes straight to bottom line....Stop being such an immature idiot....
Zero bids, daily in breakdown... 45p on the cards possibly
Bushyknob. Nobody listening to you. We know your crew have zero credibility,and we know the Investment case is getting stronger by the day,,,,making more cash by the day......and cash in bank going up by the day....
Edit....100ma
Started: TaltBong, 17 May 2024 08:44
Last post: TaltBong, 17 May 2024 08:44
SRB are the only company to currently have the top 100 ranking on Stockopedia. I've done very well on previous holders of the 100 ranking (e.g. RNO - currently at a ranking of 99) so hope they are right again with SRB. Good luck all.
Last post: pedro61, 16 May 2024 12:03
Bushytailed. You have really illuminated your position very well again. I am sure posters on this board will be so much better educated with your obvious knowledge.....Thank you for your keen observations and deep knowledge expressed in your last post the detail of which is truly impressive!
That’s genuinely a major relief. I try to be polite and answer everyone and as a rule don’t filter so having a nonstop back and forth like this would be pointless.
If you think paying down debt is a better situation than not having debt to begin with and having all cash directed towards expansion then you really are a bit hopeless.
Deleveraging is good, not having to deleverage in the first place because you aren’t heavily geared is better.
Harchris... The fact that you don't understand that debt deleveraging is actually an accrual is worrying.
I posted exactly what would happen and why and four weeks in advance too. Only a fool would keep pretending that they're right.
I'm afraid as is the rule for fools, in to the green box you must go. Good luck on your journey of discover as to just how important technical and fundamental analysis actually is to your mental health as well as your wallet health.
Looks like mr 25k sellers out for the moment big bounce incoming!
HarChris. You are spot on with your views. We have had some posters turning up with no knowledge and just an agenda to "bash",but unfortunately for them,SRB is difficult to "bash" given prospects,cash in bank,gold price and cash generation. They have proved with their "30 rules of good bashing" what their agenda is. HarChris keep your sensible and knowledgeable posts coming ,as you are totally on top of the numbers involved.I find it hard to keep track with the rising gold price changing the numbers up so quickly.Thank you.
Started: pacifico, 14 May 2024 07:57
Last post: pedro61, 16 May 2024 09:05
BushyKnob....The cycle has turned for Serabi....Have you not noticed the cashpile.....The cash generation.....Every dollar increase in the goldprice adds extra profit to the bottom line....how much extra profit being generated now......Yes it is cyclical....and the cycle has turned to favour Serabi....
Noel. . look back at how long it took me to filter Pedro back in April, was within three posts I think.
Pedro's are two a penny on these boards, they're always wrong and suffer fantasy and social personality disorders.
Filter him and carry on making money your way. People who actually know the score appreciate that profit and loss opportunities are cyclical in nature, irrespective of some grad designs 5 years down the line.
NoelShempsky......I see you following the "30 rules for bashing a stock"...deflection,manipulation,fear mongering.....well done.....This cash rich and cash generative business is not one to easily "bash" as the value is so evident....Cash pile is being added to by the day....A cash machine....Only one way this is going ...UP....
MrBond proves that is not a mature adult.
"Several posters on here acting in unison" - so pedro see a plot against him. Who does he think he is - Julius Caesar? His sense of self-importance must be very high.
Did you notice how this started? He made a baseless claim against someone else on here. I called him out on that, I asked him for evidence to back up his claim, so he immediately gets nasty with me.
He did that because he has no evidence. Getting nasty with me was a deflection tactic - to deflect attention away from baseless claim.
Now he says "You have been "outed" by posters on this board" - he is the one who has been outed as I said above - he attacks people with baseless claims.
Note the difference between me and him - he makes baseless accusations, but I say things based on evidence - the evidence of his own words.
Oh, I've just thought - in seeing plots against him, perhaps he is paranoid. In either case - paranoid or thinking he is so important that people plot against him - he needs medical help.
He produces irrationally optimistic posts trying to make people buy when the price if going to fall. How does he sleep at night?
Started: DPWGonzo, 14 May 2024 20:07
Last post: Taverham, 15 May 2024 09:02
Any spill over from the idea that Vale's fine should be increased , do we think? Hostility to miners?
Labour stoppages by 4,000 public servants disrupt wide range of industries and infrastructure...
As the strike drags on to its fifth month, it has begun to hit several key sectors, which require licences and stamps of approval, including the oil and gas industry and power sector...
I don't have time to delv deeper but I bet this is related...
Taken from start of a recent Financial Times article...
Started: austrochris, 17 Apr 2024 10:45
Last post: NoelShempsky, 11 May 2024 07:01
"GOLD, SILVER MANIA: One Of Michael Oliver’s Most Important Interviews Ever"
"... fasten your seatbelt, this is the acceleration phase. This is the point in the gold bull trend where if you’re not there, you’re going to miss it ..."
https://kingworldnews.com/gold-silver-mania-one-of-michael-olivers-most-important-interviews-ever/
Will he be proved right? I think so.
"to potentially bring forward plans " - SHG had plans and with years of hard work they successfully carried them out - but the long-term shareholders didn't get their just rewards. Buyers stepped in and snatched the company away from them.
Please bear in mind austrochris that in today's Crux interview the CEO indicated that they were looking to potentially bring forward plans for a ball mill installation at Palito. Currently scheduled for 2027 (which was news to me).
This could potentially increase production to 70 Koz in 2026 rather than the current 60 Koz. This still needs to be proven but high gold prices drive better options for producers who are in the expansion phase.
That aside today's update majorly de-risks the plans associated with getting to 60 Koz with a strong belief from management that close to 50 Koz will be hit in 2025.
Cash levels are proving strong enough to feed both the expansion at Coringa and exploration at Sao Domingos where in 2021 Serabi returned 7.15 metres at 258.24 g/t. It was one of the top 10 gold intercepts for a TSX-listed company that year. Since then exploration has gone dead because Serabi had no spare funds. So the fact they are returning there whilst also building out Coringa is significant. It says cash flows are strong. What it also indicates is that exploration news will ramp up which could be a strong additional SP driver.
The ore sorter clearing customs quickly should also not be overlooked. Brazil can be difficult on this front. It means the build-out at Coringa now sits entirely with Serabi. Hence why the end of Q3 is being earmarked for ramp-up.
So funding and equipment both de-risked.
Coringa mine development is next. Strong progress on that front means more confidence in forward production plans = more confidence in guidance for both 2024 and 2025.
USD/BRL is also favourable driving down costs and raising margins at just the right time.
Then think about just how large a stockpile of material must already be sitting at Coringa following 2 years of selective grade transport to Palito due to the 50,000-ton trial license transportation limit.
£44m enterprise value for a company with little or no debt that currently requires no further debt to reach 60,000 oz production and post today's update is much closer to achieving its initial growth goals than the valuation currently allows for. If they push to 70 Koz all the better, If they hit big on exploration it's a bonus. As is the signing up a large gold producer as partner to reall push exploration but it may end up being the beginning of the end. be it the SP should have a good run before it comes.
Strong hold for me this one.
60 000 ounces / year - first stage for serabi next two years . Brazilian Real down 7 % in April / Us Dollar . Ore sorter in Q4 . Great future !
Last post: ViciousHippo, 29 Apr 2024 17:41
Achieving 200k in the next few years would be through an acquisition or merger. No debt and lots of cash opens up options.
'But we continue to look to grow further in a financially prudent manner. Our vision is to become the premier, Brazil focussed, gold growth company generating superior returns to our investors. In parallel with organic opportunities, we continue to explore appropriate corporate opportunities to accelerate our objective of transitioning to a 200,000 ounce per year producer over the next few years.'
The next few years?! I think that's pushing it but get to even 100,000 ounces within the next few years with minimal additional debt/equity and show a clear path to 200,000 ounces and surely SRB would be far closer to £500m mcap than today's £50m.
You are being conservative with 20%...more like 100% with so much going right and with a big future...surely 100% more would be justified.
At current gold prices profits will double this year and I believe sp should be up 20% on current levels.
Great set of results for 2023. Well done Serabi team. Most excited about the next couple of years though and the huge increase in production. ATB
Started: BigBiteNow, 18 Apr 2024 08:26
Last post: NoelShempsky, 28 Apr 2024 21:07
Thanks BushyTailed. and thank you too ripley94 and DPWGonzo for your replies.
Lol I see the stamp duty issue keeps catching the new lambs out....
Not all AIM is SDRT exempt, the company must apply for exemption but for some reason SRB never did.
I paid stamp duty buying via Barclays Smart Investor
Tomorrow, I will log in to my II account and send a secure message to ask about this, but they take three or four days to reply, so it would very helpful and much appreciated if anyone can check their contract notes and confirm that they did NOT pay stamp duty.
Hi ripley, may I ask which broker. I'm wondering if this is just a mistake by Interactive Investor.
Correction 67 to 62 = approx 7.5%
Bought half the slice of 28th March back today for 62p
68 to 62 = approx 8.5% in a couple of days short of one month.
Had spare funds on acc looking for somewhere .
I'm still waiting for you to put your argument down in realistic numbers instead of reacting to the justified negativity to your random number generator mumbling rounded to the nearest quarter! Show me the math!
I don't need to read it again... Your comment imprinted instantly because it was so bad... You're in line with the £6 brigade when it had just breached 40p. Noone is going to use billion in an argument either way on this share yet some how you dropped a quarter of one using your divide by 4 resolution calculator to inform people on this chat that someone's valuation was crazy. Why would you do that? I wake up when people start swinging big unrealistic things at small realistic things. At £3.3 you are correct in your statement but £2 is high end realistic and £1.50 probably on the nose according to calculators capable of 1p resolution. You basically had a right to lay £2's worth of argument but decided to use more weight(£3.3) and bigger words(billion). You're just noise where a whisper is needed.
Why don't you stop crying as soon you see something you don't like, read my post again and then try to be an adult by discussing or contradicting something that I actually said?
Started: DPWGonzo, 11 Apr 2024 19:45
Last post: NoelShempsky, 18 Apr 2024 10:56
"If management were planning a buyout they would not have interviews with financial journalistic promoting the company would they?" - I believe that Eric Zurin, the boss of SHG did hold interviews, so you are wrong.
My comments are not intended to imply anything about the management of SRB, nor about the integrity of Eric Zurin. He might well have believed that the offer price was fair, after all "fair" is a matter of opinion.
The Shanta acquirers were very clever to get the ball rolling through 2023 and pouncing in December before the really big moves in gold were seen and looking back you can start to see that Eric took his foot off the gas from about the summer onwards, presumedly because he was incentivised to keep attention off Shanta.
If the same had been attempted at Serabi then i'm sure they'd have got a sale away at around 60p but now the gold bull run is well and truly happening by the time something similar is worked the Serabi share price will probably already be close to a pound and a premium on that would be needed - whatever happens SHs will gain by holding at these levels.
Pedro I have been invested here since early 2013 and never out.
Obviously i have brought and sold some at times but im massively invested here and elsewhere .
Having fingers in many pies is a good thing and i sleep incredibly well at night.
In my time investing i have seen so much and as i stated before and im fully behind it and say again when it comes to money ZERO loyalty.
The cash in bank and rising production allied with a rampant gold price,must be more reassurance for you to sleep at night,surely?
SilverSlippy. If you feel like that it must be difficult to sleep at night whatever share you hold. Management here actively supporting the share price by actions in the business and in the media.What more reassurance can you get? Totally the opposite of SHG,would you not say?
Started: pacifico, 17 Apr 2024 20:48
Last post: formerlyeasyp, 18 Apr 2024 08:23
Back on board but with less shares than in 2023. Confident we will see 80p a share in 2024.
The stock, up 37% in the year to date, advanced a further 5.5p to 64p. Peel Hunt reckons there is further to go for the share price as it set an 80p target and reiterated its 'buy' advice.
"We are now beginning to see the fruits of Serabi’s development work at Coringa, with the new GUIA trial mining licence providing the comfort of three more years of operation on site," said the broker in a note to clients.
"We believe the market continues to underestimate Serabi’s value proposition, especially the increase in mine life and the efficiency impact of the new ore sorter at Coringa."
Started: pacifico, 17 Apr 2024 10:36
Last post: pacifico, 17 Apr 2024 10:36
An interview with Mike Hodgson, CEO by Crux Investor can be accessed using the following link –
https://youtu.be/8ez5vVY2Fz0
An interview with Mike Hodgson, CEO by BRR Media can be accessed using the following link - https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/661d1cd8591bc168ede76734/serabi-gold/?popup=true
Started: formerlyeasyp, 17 Apr 2024 07:12
Last post: formerlyeasyp, 17 Apr 2024 07:12
Production figures up, good grades and mine improvements on schedule.
It will be interesting to see the increase in gold price dropping straight to the bottom line...
10,000k oz? That's quite a lot.
Buyers returning after the over done sell off of the past 2 days on the Vale news which is peripheral to Serabi's main business of gold production . With hindsight it might be seen as a good thing to have the news out of the way ahead of Q1 production results which should be very encouraging (10,000k oz?) and getting the year off to a good start with much improved cash flow and confidence in the ramp up in production this year/next year.
Results were 19th last year so not long
So much to look forward to. Gold price is transformational. Still around half the price of 2-3 years ago. My conservative and realistic target is 150p this year.It seams only results will be good enough to get it there. Results soon.
Started: minty77, 9 Apr 2024 09:24
Last post: minty77, 9 Apr 2024 09:24
Can anyone tell me if any of the gold is hedged?
Started: formerlyeasyp, 8 Apr 2024 07:39
Last post: pedro61, 8 Apr 2024 10:50
Big support at this level as should be well north of 100p....possibly 150p+ by year end
I put in a fill or kill to sell my holding this morning.
Not because I think this is terrible news but because I had cleared 130% profit, SRB was my largest single holding and it was about time to take some profits. I will almost certainly buy a smaller stake later this week.
To summarise the RNS - Matilda drilling so far hasnt really uncovered any copper worthwhile for Vale. There is a little gold in the area, but it's mostly not significant, notwithstanding the 18.46 g/t in one area. The news therefore is there is not going to be a significant upside on a copper partnership with Vale, but that was never priced into the shares anyway.
This RNS is neutral for existing Palito and Coringa, which remain undervalued at the current share price...
Minor news today as the gold is what matters at the moment for our profits and cash generation,and that is still to be priced in to the s.p.
“Whilst Vale have, during this week, informed us that they wish to withdraw from the exploration alliance, we do have a number of other groups keen to partner with us on the exploration for copper mineralisation. We remain excited, and these other companies seem to share our optimism, for discovering commercial copper porphyry mineralisation in our Tapajos tenements. We have very much enjoyed working with Vale and from Serabi’s perspective achieved a key objective of significantly advancing our understanding of Matilda as well as identifying other potential targets for copper porphyry mineralisation during the past 12 months”.
Last post: Cnutgoestheeasal, 8 Apr 2024 09:59
I can't remember from the original RNS, if Vale withdraw does that mean they maintain any residual rights/claims over the areas they have drilled?
Anybody remember?
Agree with you ViciousHippo. Only thing that matters here for the foreseeable is gold production. And should get 1st Q results within the next week. ATB