Member Info for MarginMiner

Plenty of news to drop: Geo survey progress; Lab assays; Kalayi MRE update; Binding share deal; Canada assay data. All can assist to move the needle. Exciting times for Rome over the next weeks/month or so.

Thanks Daisan. I better hold my breath on that downside! Last time, it didn't pop back up for 10 years, I was feeling a little dizzy by the end! I’ve always been happy with gold in the mid-$4,000s; anything above that is just a bonus.

I noticed Rick mentioned on a recent podcast that he’s getting back into the junior mining market, which is a great sign. I'm expecting a little turbulence over the summer, but hopefully, it's onwards and upwards from there. GLA.

Https://www.miningreview.com/magazine-article/rome-resources-maiden-mre-is-a-milestone-for-bisie-north-project/

Hey Edzi,

Thanks for your note.

While a project-wide exploration target of 102k to 260k tonnes of tin makes for an incredibly exciting finish line at $55,000 per tonne, we have to look at the reality of the drilling data. That massive aspirational range (from that RNS you mention) covers the entire Bisie North footprint, combining both Kalayi and Mont Agoma. Given that 91% of the recent drilling campaign was focused strictly on Kalayi, it is mathematically unrealistic to attribute that entire 102k-tonne baseline to Kalayi alone right now. We cannot treat an unproven, project-wide geological target as concrete proof for a single hill until the final lab assays map out the actual boundaries.

Basically, I'd prefer to stick to a strong, realistic uplift without hitting total blue sky at this moment, I think this is much more in tune with Paul's dialogue. Looking at my numbers, we should probably move away from peak spot pricing of $55,000 and move towards a baseline of $42,500 to $45,000, as corporate buyouts are usually modelled on expected metal prices over a 5 to 10-year curve.

Of course, I could be wrong and am being way too conservative, but you can see where I'm going with this: conservative all the way, and then we can scale up the models once the resources are officially confirmed. When the actual numbers come out, we can easily re-run. Must say, I'm rather bullish now and expect a lovely re-rate in due course. The NPV could be amazing!

Regarding how the market would perceive a structured deal, like a substantial cash downpayment paired with a retained moving percentage forward, I think it would be incredibly well-received. An upfront cash downpayment completely eliminates the risk of cheap equity dilution for existing shareholders, while a retained percentage/royalty gives us an explosive, free-carried call option on the asset's long-term growth. Lets see how this plays out.

The timing aligns perfectly with what is happening on the ground. Once the small-scale process is actively running from the adit and defining the physical material, any remaining doubts regarding metallurgical viability vanish. Following that up with the upcoming round of drilling at the bottom of the hill should answer the final questions on scale. If those deeper holes prove the mineralisation remains wide open at both ends, the ceiling on what this asset can produce completely disappears. You keep taking me back to blue sky! Here's hoping!

My current view on the board: I'd be a buyer of ALTN around the 930p range, though I am keeping a lookout for entry points in the 800s if volatility persists.

On the macro front, expectations for a US rate cut this year are fading fast. A sustainable gold rally might have to wait until H1 2027. Despite the institutional hype and those aggressive $5,400–$6,000 year-end predictions, the maths to me just doesn't add up right now.

On the positive side, gold is defending the $4,200 mark beautifully, exactly as noted here a few weeks back. A bit of sector rotation from energy back to metals would go a long way. Ultimately, we need oil to bottom out to break the back of sticky inflation, which clears the path for lower rates, stronger bullion, and better days for ALTN.

Still waiting on news for the second mine and processing plant. Right now, we’re just drifting, the gold price is dictating our direction. Hopefully, bullion holds up after the US-Iran deal, but US interest rates remain the number one driver.

Central bank buying is great, but management has lost the short-term impetus to drive this share price forward and control our own destiny. Disagree? Feel free to ignore. I'm just keeping it balanced.

We need material updates. The move to a 2.5 mtpa plant should deliver over 100k ounces a year (ideally 110k–115k), and we know the open pit has serious volume. We are nearing the end of H2, management, time to drive this forward. Get it done.

Https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/g7-sets-up-critical-minerals-alliance-crisis-platform-2026-06-17/

If you're thinking of the five rare earths that have been most discussed recently in G7 and supply-chain discussions, they are often:

Neodymium (Nd)

Praseodymium (Pr)

Dysprosium (Dy)

Terbium (Tb)

Samarium (Sm)

Https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/g7-sets-up-critical-minerals-alliance-crisis-platform-2026-06-17/

Made a little top-up this afternoon. With under a month to wait for the official numbers and after re-reviewing the geological footprint, I'm betting we are looking at one larger mineralisation link straight into Alphamin's tin trend. It cut off my finish on the last post, but oh well! These are obviously very high-level example numbers for the sake of the calculation, and it is always best to DYOR.

Hi all,

Paul seems to be a little more upbeat on this most recent podcast. The 17% tin headline number is just crazy to be honest, but because it is from a handheld XRF reading, it could easily be a localized sweet spot and incorrect for the wider deposit. It is vital that we keep a level head here. Paul is obviously having a few problems getting the official laboratory assays back, it sounds like he has been on the phone chasing the team in Johannesburg after the third-party provider missed a number of internally agreed deadlines. Ultimately, there is nothing to worry about here, a few weeks of administrative delay getting the results out is frustrating, but it is certainly not the end of the world.

What I really like from the presentation are the words "fairly big uplifts" and "strong." Given that 91% of the recent drilling campaign was focused squarely at Kalayi, it is safe to say that the bulk of this work is sitting directly under known tin mineralisation. Commencing the small-scale mining tunnel allows them to legally trigger the conversion of their exploration permit into a full exploitation (Mining) Licence under DRC law. Fair enough, let's get it done, while also using the extracted bulk data for crucial metallurgical and mineralogical testing, which makes total sense. Moving their net project ownership up to 79% via the partner buyout is incredibly handy too, offering a very nice paper resource uplift for shareholders right out of the gate.

Looking at the big picture macro economics, the global tin price is at roughly $55,000 per tonne. If we use the company's baseline targets and go with a proven resource of 50,000 tonnes of contained tin, that gives the project an in-situ gross metal value of $2.75 billion. Factoring in an 80% metallurgical recovery rate leaves us with 40,000 tonnes of recoverable tin, and once we apply Rome's target 79% ownership stake, shareholders' net share sits at roughly 31,600 tonnes of recoverable tin, valued at $1.74 billion (approximately £1.36 billion). Even if we play it safe and move the average grade down to a conservative 1% tier, slightly lower than the earlier 1.36% audited Kalayi data, the project remains highly lucrative.

While a standalone stock market listing might only command a basic exploration multiple, a corporate buyout by our neighbor Alphamin changes the calculation completely. Because Alphamin operates the world's premier, lowest-cost tin complex just 8km down the road, they can bypass building a new processing mill entirely and truck our high-grade ore straight to their existing infrastructure. This massive operational synergy justifies a strategic M&A multiple of 10% to 15% on our £1.36 billion net share of recoverable metal, translating to an acquisition market cap of £136 million to £204 million. Directly factoring in the partner buyout dilution to an expanded 8.87 billion share count, a strategic trade sale to Alphamin yields a realistic assett buyout target of 1.53p - 2

Need to do the kids’ food, so I’ll be quick! Thanks for the questions.

The most significant development for me is probably the indication that mineralisation continues along strike towards Alphamin’s ground. That’s a strong validation of the broader geological model and supports the idea that this is a district-scale tin system rather than something isolated.

That said, I understand why attention is on the deeper holes down the hill. Those are important because they can demonstrate continuity at depth and potentially show that the system is still open. If grades and thicknesses hold up there, those could end up being some of the most value-accretive results yet.

On the MRE, that’s the big unknown, so any estimate from me is purely speculative. Paul has talked about a “meaningful” resource update, although his more recent tone has felt slightly more measured.

If I had to put a very broad framework around expectations, I’d probably think in terms of a 40–60% increase as a base case, with anything above that starting to feel like a strong outcome. Personally, I’d be surprised if that wording was being used if only a marginal uplift was expected, but that’s just interpretation rather than anything concrete. The key point is we’ll only know once the numbers are actually out.

If the endgame is a potential sale to Alphamin, then the MRE becomes less about a headline figure and more about valuation and quality. Continuity, scale, and evidence of growth at depth probably matter as much as the tonnage number itself. If Kalayi is shown to be a growing system adjacent to an existing producer, that obviously strengthens the strategic case.

On the airborne survey, I think it works for both sides. It helps Rome refine targets and prioritise exploration, but it would also clearly be useful to any potential acquirer. Either way, it reduces uncertainty, and that’s valuable in itself. I understand Charles’s view that this could support a relatively near-term corporate outcome.

On the DRC, I get why some investors are cautious. Jurisdiction risk is real, but Alphamin has operated successfully there for years.

On strategy more broadly, it really comes down to timing. If drilling continues to add meaningful value, keep going. If the asset reaches a point where value is better realised via sale or partnership, then that option should be on the table. The key is flexibility and focusing on shareholder value.

More drilling supports a stronger strategic outcome, but there is always a balance between waiting for greater definition and crystallising value earlier.

Personally, I’d like to see Alphamin involved if it is driven by strike extension and geological continuity, effectively making Kalayi part of the same broader system. That’s where the strategic logic really strengthens.

Yes, Seawitch, like a few of us, I was initially hoping all the outstanding assay results would have landed last week (as per Paul's previously podcasted timelines) to give the technical team a totally clear runway for the end-of-June MRE target. Paul confirmed they aren't all in just yet, but are expected to trickle in over the next two weeks. I understand the geological framework should already be built, so hopefully it's simply a case of plugging in the final holes and, if so, it is still entirely achievable for the end of June.

There is a little historical drilling data on the Canadian side of things. I guess Paul will complete this low-cost reconnaissance programme designed to generate enough geological information to justify a larger commitment later. I'm not entirely sure how much the New Brunswick scheme reimburses, perhaps 30–40%, so around CA$50,000 of the total CA$150,000 programme cost as a very rough guide.

Thanks lost in the dark, any particular talk regarding zone/section 5 by the board regarding teren sai? Also, were all three family members attending?

So lets use 10mt. Grade 1.5%, so 150,000 tonnes of rare earth, lets use 75% recovery, gives 112,500 tonnes, x 27% (NdPr content) = 30,375 tonnes of recoverable NdPr Oxide. NdPr Oxide Equivalent: ~$145,000 per tonne, but lets use the NdPr Alloy Equivalent: ~$109,550 per tonne. So for NdPr only ~£2.48 billion GBP. So for us now as an exploration company, lets range it £2.5 - £4 / tonne REO. The project sits at £260 to £410 million range. Should sit closer toward the higher end of the range due to the project’s advantageous 27% NdPr ratio. This site on the conservative 10mt, Ndpr only. Can someone please double check my figures please, they look rather bullish.

Based on a back-of-the-envelope calculation using the limited 2017/2018 drilling data, we can estimate the project's potential by establishing a conservative geometric model. Using a strike length of 2,000 metres, an effective mineralised width of 30 metres (I'm guessing here, can anyone help confirm?), and a stop depth of 100 metres, which is chosen due to the limited drilling results below that depth rather than an actual geological termination of the ore, we arrive at a total volume of 6,000,000 cubic metres. Applying a standard, conservative density of 2.75 $t/m^3 for carbonatite ore, we reach a theoretical maximum of 16,500,000 tonnes. After applying a 40% reduction to account for geological factors such as "pinch and swell" in the dyke structures, the model yields a conservative estimate of 10 Mt. While this figure is highly conservative given the 100-metre depth constraint, the potential upside is significant; if the mineralization remains consistent at depth, as evidenced by the 215-metre open drill result, that tonnage could effectively be doubled. Furthermore, given the geological profile, an open-pit operation would likely remain feasible to those deeper levels. Looking at the 215-metre and no evidence of a geological base, there is a strong possiblity the minerliazed system extends to 300 meres and beyond. Is this a fair representation at this point?

The Kieshöhe carbonatites of southwestern Namibia, the post-magmatic role of silicate xenoliths on REE mobilisation" (published in Communications – Geological Survey of Namibia, 2022). You can view the specific core log in the figures of this paper.

There was a 215metre hole. This hole is critical because it allowed scientists to see exactly how the carbonatite dykes behave at depth. Specifically, the logs from this hole revealed:

Orientation: The hole was inclined at 30° to penetrate a 60° dipping carbonatite dyke perpendicularly, providing a clear look at the internal structure of the dyke.

Deep Mineralisation: It confirmed that the system is not just a surface phenomenon. The logs detail cross-cutting relationships between breccia and carbonatite veins at depths as far down as 150m to 201m.

Visual Evidence: The paper includes high-resolution images of the drill core from various depths within this 215.3m hole, such as:

152.8m: Cross-cutting relationships between xenolith-rich breccia and carbonatite veins.

181.2m: Dolomite-carbonatite dyke intruding into the gneiss basement rock.

201.4m: Multi-stage, fine-grained dolomite-carbonatite breccia.

The original 14-hole diamond drilling program conducted by the Shali Group in 2017/2018

The recent drilling program, which was dispatched for analysis starting around May 13–14 and drip-fed over a three-week period, suggests that Rome Resources should now be in possession of all final data. With the geophysical survey having commenced in mid-May and allowing for a six-week completion window, we are likely approaching a point, potentially week commencing June 29, where the company could issue a comprehensive, triple-pronged announcement. Ideally, this would include the MRE, the new geophysical findings, and hopefully a structural interpretation confirming that the mineralized strike follows the granite contact as it bends around the riverbed. Whether the system ultimately trends west-to-east or follows this contact, both scenarios would represent significant structural validations for the project. If you are in the 'B' camp, you should expect to see a third RNS over the coming weeks; I’m not sure how fast Paul can move on this, but it is arguably possible that it could be released as early as next week.

In regards to Ken, Martyn Churchouse mentioned in a podcast in May that he suspects the 14mt at TK (it's actually poking out of the earth) is ~20% of the resource. He can see the visual carbonatites in the trenching. At grades, which I keep hearing time and time again of consistency between 3% to 3.5% TREO, also from Colin Bird more recently, then we see that PrNd makes up ~25% to 27%. Then we have a secondary area, different to TK, more at surface and lower grade (1.5% to 1.9%), which is still upper quartile for rare earths. Then we see that PrNd makes up ~25% here. We could be looking at 100mt.

Maiden JORC resource is due Q3. I get the price flux, but suspect anywhere around 7 pence could be a floor due to recent market support. I believe the story, as a couple of drill results show rare earths @ 80m and 112m depths open, and still seeing >3% rare earth grade. Could be an inverted cone.

Appreciate lots of ifs, whats, and maybes, but thought I'd share, as if anyone hasn't taken a look, I believe it's well worth an investigation. DYOR of course. Now I have shared with you guys, I hope it does well.

Sorry for going off subject.

That's the last I'll say on it. Now back to ALTN.

News, agree relevant. What's colin suggesting:

Validation: "Look, my strategy is exactly what companies in the world are doing. $7 million prepayment for 100% offtake is a highly standard, highly valuable deal structure."

Frustration setting in, venting his own annoyance that a massive tier-one conglomerate like Samsung can wrap up due diligence and deploy $7 million to a Mexican silver mine in weeks, while Bezant's financier has dragged the Hope & Gorob paperwork out for over half a year.

My interpretation is that one of the following is likely:

An heir, family member, or representative has challenged ownership of shares. Or Someone has alleged that a shareholding was transferred improperly. Or Someone has requested a regulatory, legal, or corporate investigation connected to the beneficial ownership of a significant stake. Or there is a dispute over who ultimately controls a family holding vehicle, by placing it in the agm is a red flag. Legal drew it up, investigation is underway make no bones about it. Reminds me of MML back in the day. Power hungry rich family members, disgruntled and lawyers getting involved. Not ideal. Still holding and await further updates.