Member Info for MarginMiner

The logic for targeting the United States is driven by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the 2027 "Foreign Entity of Concern" (FEOC) deadline. Currently, the US government provides a $7,500 tax credit for EVs, but there is a strict requirement: the battery minerals cannot come from "entities of concern" (essentially China). While the US granted a grace period for graphite until 2027, that cliff is fast approaching. Even though SVML’s production is stated for 2030, US automakers like Ford and GM need to sign offtakes now. They aren't just buying graphite; they are buying long-term "Tax Credit Eligibility" to ensure their cars remain $7,500 cheaper than competitors for the next decade.

Hi IBABFO - I didn't think anything is frozen. We have restricted matters which from my understanding does allow us to proceed with Rio's consent. Leadership have been in the U.S. as offtake agreements can get to memo of understanding so can all be lined up very nicely, without falling foul of the restricted clause. Of course IPO, debt and the chicken and egg debate will all be >82 days, or even the extension, if applied. No reason to stop the offtakes etc... Hope that makes sense? Here for the long term, GLA.

The Sirius case was driven by financing failure, not just opportunistic acquisition. I don’t see Rio bidding in the next ~82 days for a number of reasons. Svml will find the capex funding via an ipo, debt, offtake agreements and any other variable to get to 750 million. Expect offtake agreements to trickle in one by one…. . Hoping for the long game here. I don’t know if we will get that either…

70pence. Nope. For a development-stage critical minerals project with:

DFS completed (de-risked but not producing)

strategic importance (graphite / possible rare earth upside)

long-life asset potential

A large miner typically values it at:

NPV (risk-adjusted) + 30–100% strategic premium

In practical market terms, that often translates into:

~A$1.0bn to A$2.0bn acquisition range (ballpark) in a competitive/strategic scenario.

Going to hide tomz morning. Expecting a bumpy week.

Paul, I’ll have a go at £1.11 per share. Have you run some numbers? What are you going for?

Think they have a divi policy from 2025 where they follow a specific formula. As I understand the ceo mentioned any surplus divi will be advised at year end so they have full details of all moving parts before committing.

Browns - I suspect the 23% IRR moves towards 30% territory within the next 70 days... and that payback period reducing from 6.2 years to ~4.5 years! All my assumptions, of course.

If you're running your own figures, remember: Monazite is early money. As soon as Phase 1 starts, the REE cash rolls in. With no major Capex, it adds pure profit to the early years, which directly crushes that payback window. We're looking at a super-tier, optimized, high-margin future.

I’d suggest SVML drop a Monazite addendum in 60/70 days. This puts the ball firmly in Rio’s court before the initial 90-day election window closes. With the REE inclusion we are a tri-commodity powerhouse with ~70% operating margins (even on conservative Monazite pricing). This moves Kasiya from 'Great Project' to 'Super-Tier' status. Well done to the SVML team so far, great job.

Hardly anyone wants to hold the gold, more than 1%, I have no idea! Wont the other "89" be paid the cash equiv? Do agree market shift to the east

If production hits 13,750 to 15,000 oz and sustains that level for the year at an average gold price of $4,876, the forward EPS would reach £3.50, leaving the stock on a bargain forward P/E of just 3.5x at current prices; adjusting to a more realistic fair value benchmark of 6x–7x P/E, reflecting its single-mine and jurisdictional profile, implies a share price of approximately £23.50.

Expecting >13,750 Oz in the first quarter, of course my blue sky thinking, if correct, we could almost touch 15,000 Oz. Average gold price in Q1 is ~$4,876. Take of adjusted AISC, lets go for $1,400 (includes march oil spike). So total revenue $73 million - operating costs $21 million. EBITDA $52 million. In just three months ALTN would generate 75% of revenue they made in the entire year of 2024. Cash printing press with a $3,476 margin per oz. 71% profit margin.

Slightly off subject, culpepper, any family link to Leeds castle? Was there today and saw the name …

For those wondering about the Q1 drill results mentioned in the Jan 13th update: SL specifically said they looked forward to announcing results for both Segilola (Nigeria) and Côte d’Ivoire 'later in Q1 2026.'

While we haven't seen them yet, keep in mind they just cleared the massive Douta PFS and Technical Report filings this month. With the gold price sitting at nice elevated prices, I'd rather they take an extra week or two to get the data right than rush it. The CEO did mention a 'backlog' of results in a recent investor meet, so the pipe is definitely full...

Let me be clear, we are awaiting a decision from management to progress. But expect with each month that passes at these gold prices it becomes a no brainer… I also have another theory regarding rare earths… but nothing solid and only a wild theory on my part, I’ll leave it there.

Altn is transitioning toward processing capacity of ~2.5Mt. There is currently no dividend, with capital required for both plant enhancements and the development of the open pit. Production is expected to increase from ~55kt to approximately 115–120kt. (My figs, I’m sure we will see a slight tick up on g/t in the next update compared to previous quarters).

The owners, who retain around 65% ownership, have built the business steadily over a long period and have done a solid job advancing the asset. Near-term news flow is expected.

The current carnage in gold miners is systemic, not isolated, a classic sector-wide washout. Given our leveraged positioning, the eventual reversal should be as violent as the decline. I am viewing this as a major accumulation phase. The key here is emotional detachment. I’ve reached a point where short-term volatility is noise. If the fundamentals and the gold price align, the rest is just waiting. I’ve been in this game far too long to let a temporary dip rattle my conviction.

It’s a talent, really. My buy button has a direct link to the 'market crash' lever...

I decided to top up my position today. While my portfolio is currently quite overweight in the mining sector, I remain confident in the underlying fundamentals here.

I’ve been reviewing the recent production data and noticed that the gold grade ($g/t$) dipped slightly in the last quarter. Based on my analysis, this appears to be a temporary side effect of the mine development, specifically the work to secure new access points at lower levels. As this newly accessed ore is fed through the mill, I’m anticipating a significant recovery. My personal expectation is for a 6% to 8% uplift in gold grade in the upcoming quarterly results. I appreciate the profit predictions shared by others. The key variable for me remains that grade improvement; if we hit that 6%/8% grade increase, it should provide a very healthy boost to the bottom line alongside the current gold price environment.

Let’s look at the numbers: even the low-end guidance at $4,000 gold brings in $208M. At today’s spot, we're talking $270M, and if JP Morgan is right about $6,300, we could hit $346M. That last figure might be the 'top,' but it shows how much upside is possible. I have to keep the market cap in perspective and tune out the daily fluctuations... please be careful and mind the valuation gap!

Https://altyngold.uk/operations/ then click on Teren-Sai with the 65K Oz/Yr targeted run rate showing. Is this new or have I missed it before? 65+52/55, blasts well north of the 100K target. I've topped up today, first time since HMB days.