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Interesting to see how SVML / Rio play this out. My understanding (though I haven’t verified it) is that the Government may not want ore simply sold off, but instead refined to maximise the tax take through higher-value processing stages.

From Rio’s perspective, SVML is likely to be a strong addition to their ESG profile, helping reduce overall emissions intensity and strengthen their green credentials.

There are also clear financial differences across the three stages, along with the potential requirement for additional capex. To me, it feels like a logical long-term path could be a phased approach, potentially incorporating a third-stage monazite processing plant further down the line. Start with ore production, then gradually work through the value chain over a number of years.

That said, we do need to factor in the scale and timing of capex required for downstream processing, particularly on a 5+ year view. It’s not a straightforward decision in terms of the optimal route. Of course, we also don’t yet have confirmed rare earth production numbers. I previously gave an indication of potential revenue ranges as an example of how materially outcomes can vary across the different stages.

Great news and more to come! Delighted!!

Just to be clear, I am NOT saying we shall get to 2.62%, nor do I expect it. If that happens, champers all round lol.

Weighted average at 2.62, from the latest x drilling. Just being conservative, and cautious until we have the latest data. I know this could blow, but I’ll be seen as a ramper! Fun times, and looking forward to the update. GLA

I just like to take it a step at a time and used the numbers put up. I'm looking for more than 2 pence! Rome will be purchased, within 2 years.

Sorry had tonnage at 60,000t below. Take the RMR ownership at 73% too comes in at the 1.30P figure.

If you see the tin projections and valuation in fig 5 from the Allenby capital report, lets bring the EV/t valuation basis down to say Cornish metals level, so £2,000/t, now if the RME shows 50,000 tons of mineable Tin, we come to a total market cap of £120 million, so ~1.57 pence per share. Now Cornish metals grade is 50% better than Rome's, however I believe we can close that gap between 0.9% and 1.41%. Now if we reach 1.41% (which is considered high grade), well worth 1.57 pence as fair price. So a lovely RME target using that note: 50,000 and 1.4% grade. That's a massive upgrade if we get anywhere near these figures!! Grade is powerful here! I think we have a shot at 1.4% grade! Fingers crossed, GLA and hopefully a re-rate on the way!

Https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q1-2026/central-banks?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Solid post gumboot and thanks for sharing.

As we await the DFS (or amendment / addendum etc) for the final monazite grade to run the implied monazite content, but we can already piece together a very compelling picture. What we know so far is world-class: NdPr at 21.8%, DyTb at 2.9%, and Yttrium at 11.9%. With other rare earths like Cerium and Lanthanum likely making up another 25% to 30%, the Total Rare Earth Oxide (TREO) typically accounts for about 62.5% of the total mass.

To reverse engineer the potential, we look at the grades. With Rutile at 0.96% and Graphite at 0.95%, we can imply a monazite ratio of roughly 1:40. This suggests a monazite grade of 0.024%. If Heavy Minerals (HM) make up ~6% of the ore, that equates to 0.40% Monazite in HM. For comparison, Fortuna—just 20km away—measures 0.32%, while we benefit from a higher magnetic delta of 2.9 amps versus their 2.4 amps.

Based on a 12,000,000 tpa ore throughput, a 2.51% combined grade, and an 85% recovery (which might be a touch aggressive, but possible), we get roughly 1,024 tonnes of concentrate per year. Because of the high quality, this sand would likely fetch $10,500 per tonne rather than the standard $8,500, generating $10.7 million per year just from selling the raw concentrate.

While my understanding is that SVML isn't currently looking at the later stages, the full picture is staggering. Moving to Stage 2 (chemical acid leaching) moves the price to $45,000/t ($46m/yr). Moving to Stage 3 (refined oxides via solvent extraction) hits $125,000/t, or $128m/yr. These revenue figures effectively double after the year 5 ramp-up, potentially reaching $260 million a year if SVML and Rio decide to become a refining powerhouse.

The Capex to reach Stage 3 would be around $520 million, offering a lightning-fast 2-year payback. This is a high-margin "add-on" with an incremental IRR of 45% to 50%—which is unheard of. When you blend that with the base 23% IRR, the total project IRR jumps to ~36%. That brings the total capital cost to $1.75 billion against an annual profit of $736 million.

Of course, these are the usual caveats as I'm piecing together what could be, rather than what is currently fact. We await the final details to re-run the numbers. For now, the focus is on getting the ESIA ready and submitted, easier said than done, I know! Good luck to the team. If a Rio decision lands around 14 July (hopefully!), they may see this as a Tier 2 prospect on their radar, but the positives at SVML are simply becoming too big to ignore. GLA

Bangrak, I’m long ALTN. the reason for the drop is progression in the numbers, ALTN putting out a sustained gold production Yoy. If I’m critical, the strategy from management should be one of gradual gold production progression Yoy and of course this late licence, which brings us back to question of managements ability to look forward and navigate with the objective mentioned above.

Suspect if classed as the annual divi, it will need sign off at the next AGM, so 26 May. Say mid June Ex-Divi date and record date. Late June payment date best guess.

I've just crunched some numbers. If the price stays around here, share buys backs are vastly superior to any divi. The increase in EPS in one year could be between 8% to 13% .. and that compounds if repeated. So a ~13% upside on our fair value without any re-rating. Can I sell it another way. On a P/E of 2.5, its like getting a 40% earnings yield. The market needs to stay asleep! And management can exploit the undervaluation.

I think Ratboy is talking about the possibility of the 2026 FY numbers. So lets run that: 55,000oz x $4,600 = $253 million. Minus AISC 55,000 oz x ~$1,500* = £82.5 million. Est EBITDA $178 million. Est Net profit $119.2 million. EPS: $119.2 / 75.7M = $1.57 .... *The aim is $1,500, but currently running higher. So this is when everything aligns. I guess some here my argue gold could well be higher (well it has been!) and could well go higher again, who knows!. So 20% or 30% of FCF Divi = $0.29/23p per share to $0.44/35p per share. Using a 330p share price, gives between a 7% to 10.6% yield. So its got a shot. Numbers run roughly, so please don't shoot me down. I found the earlier talk of the divi (between 20/30% of FCF), compare to what the CEO mentioned: "The Board announces the 2026 shareholder return policy will be a targeted return of up to 20 - 30% of the Group’s free cash flow to shareholders through dividends or buy-backs." to what the chair says about the divi: ". The Board currently expects to adopt a similar payout range for the financial year 2026." ... a little confusing to me, as there is a significant difference on my number in terms of % yield between what has been paid to what will be paid here. In the above calcs you have 20/30% of FCF going 100% into dividends (I guess here if the price stays at a low PE, and POG stays high, we could see share buybacks, it makes sense if POG has a new floor and we dont re-rate - do both right, Divi and buyback, they have flexability). Major M&A move possible, so they are looking for even more potential! Great to see organic potential too. Nice to see extra money put towards H&S, look after the staff, and they look after you. Debt free. Massive liquidity. Fourth ball mill incoming. We need a license! Longhole open stoping, this will assist lowering pre ounce mining costs. Sao Chico re-evaluation. Significant brownfield drilling. Plenty to get stuck into.

Monazite (tpa) =

Ore Throughput (tpa)

× HM Grade (%)

× Monazite in HM (%)

× Recovery (%)

Revenue ($/yr) =

Monazite (tpa)

× Price ($/t)

In Fortuna’s announcement, did the 0.32% monazite figure refers to the percentage found in Mineral Concentrate?

We should expect around 6% of the 2025 gold production to shift into Q1. From the results, AISC appears to have been left within the 2025 full-year figures, which suggests slightly stronger Q1 performance going forward. The cost impact is likely around $80 favourable, give or take.

It’s also unclear why dividends were brought up at this stage. The priority should be upgrading the processing unit as soon as possible, securing the TS mining licence, and beginning stripping operations.

A dividend can wait. What ALTN needs to focus on is capitalising on the current POG, scaling up, and getting production running at roughly 120–125k per year.

Nice to know we have a price cap shield. Kazakhstan is linked to the world market, hence hurting their exports because imports are maxed out. Let’s hope for more peaceful times soon. In the meantime, Thank you to the Kazakhstan government. Thanks for sharing Righton.

FY 2025 Annual Financial Report should be any day now. Last year was April 24th. Q1 results last year were released 11 May.

If AltynGold’s fuel costs aren't hedged, we should likely brace for an AISC increase of approximately ~$200/oz starting in Q2 (I'm told 40% on 40% of the AISC). While we might see a brief result-day bump, the stock will likely follow the broader mining sector and settle back into value territory until Middle East geopolitical tensions ease.

Howard - Do you think Simon Trott can resist the urge to secure full Tier-1 rights with a mining life for the next century, its a great excuse to have an exception, that’s where the narrative might shift... And I think it will, we humans can't help it, a juicy carrot is dangling in front of your eyes each and every day, you only need to bite once! ... Just down the road please...