Member Info for RetiredBanker

Really don't know why this is still trading below 1100p rather than closer to 1700p. Several of my other miners have re-tested their highs from late February (SRB / AAZ / AAU etc) with the announcement of Q1 results. I think some of the comments others have made regarding the lack of progress in expanding the mine or progressing Teren Sai do account for some of the inertia. The relatively small float is another reason and Q1 output being well below 1/4 of FY production expectations could also be a factor. However I am quite confident in the Assaubayevs ... they have been much better stewards of my money than most 'western' CEOs of AIM listed miners ... and I feel they will continue to be so. Whilst Donald Trump is distracting the world from US domestic debt issues with his endless stream of wars, slush funds, gerrymandering etc, etc it is worth sitting back and being patient whilst one of the few 'real' assets - gold, re-asserts itself.

We're starting to see some investors recognizing that AAZ is no longer a gold miner but instead a copper play. We've now hit an all time high share price even though gold has fallen $1000 per oz since end of February. My target market cap is around £750m if they deliver 2026 output as stated.

Average price over the past 90days (prior to this week) was about 45p ... so offering a 50% premium to that price wouldn't get you any more than the current share price. Don't think going private will make the trading environment any easier for the brothers, but reduced Audit & Compliance fees might make a difference when seeking out a 1% increase in net margin is now worth 5%+ of market capital. Hope Labour is proud of itself for 'soaking the rich' like the Smiths !

... and the joy is, thinks can only get worse under Burnham, Rayner or Streeting

Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and the whole Labour Cabinet should be shown the SHOE share chart since they took office two years ago and asked one simple question.

"why do you hate British Businesses so much ?"

Been doing a little review on the comments made about the TSF over the years. After all it is now a decade since the 80k oz reserve was announced. There seems to have been limited progress with DRDGold and the S.African authorities in getting this sludge "de-watered" and turned into actual gold bars ! But interestingly this comment was in the Aug '24 update

"Since the completion of the JORC resource, circa 800,000 metric tonnes of material have been added to the facility at grades of circa 1.45g/t (subject to confirmation)".

That would suggest the reserve is now nearer to 120k oz ; around 1/2 billion dollar value !

At the Q2 update I said that GDP was hiding in plain sight for anybody wishing to do a little research. I also suggested movement towards a mkt cap of £50m was my expectation. Let's hope that happens in early August with the Q4 results update.

To be honest my biggest fear right now is just how annoying it would be if DRDGold came in with a buyout offer at 20p ... with the backing of our BoD, knowing they would get some tidy salary / bonus contracts given to them in the enlarged company. Let's all hope Martin Ooi can't be bought that cheaply.

Mike, the market definitely agrees with you on a p/e of 5. But with entire US market on p/e >25 and the Magnificent Seven on p/e of around 35, and a number of AI darlings on p/e above 100 I think a consistent 5yr track record should count for a bit more. Add in rampant debt funded support as the only means to keep most Western economies growing, with a total inability to service that debt unless interest rates start to fall and you can see why every Emerging Nation is building up it's Central Bank gold reserves instead of US Treasuries. With that as the backdrop, why do you feel "forward PE of 4.5 to 5 sounds about right" ?

It's interesting to compare the timeline charts from the La India updates on 9th Dec vs 30th March. Appears to me to be some clear over-runs with the completion of the foundations which Darren didn't comment on in the quarterly update. My fear, as I mentioned a week ago, is a nefarious action by the main shareholders and BoD to dilute us smaller shareholders. I no longer think we'll see a linear run up in the share price here between now and December, instead fear we could flatline / decrease until a 'first pour' announcement. Which if it does arrive in Q4 should see a very marked increase - probably to around 25p imho !

".... so why now and why only 10p"

As a 30% owning insider, AMG know we are on the cusp of some serious revenue generation with very high degree of certainty after several years of gradual decline, so now is the time to takeover ; and 10p is a price they feel confident will get accepted but still make them handsome profits.

This is what happens on AIM all too frequently ... but nice for anybody who recognized the issuance last June as a likely floor price and has doubled their money in under a year

I've just bought back in here, having trimmed my exposure to SRB (which is still a great bet for the future). Seems to me that AAU is being valued solely on its 23% stake in Turkey and that the Dokwe project is effectively valued at zero. Or alternatively the value is attributable to Dokwe at just a couple of hundred dollars per ounce for resources in the ground ... and the money generating Turkish operations are being valued at zero. Either way, this is now both generating some revenue and developing new mines

The real question that needs answering is not how valuable this mine might be when it reaches 100k oz + production, but rather, who is going to provide the capital to achieve that production and how much are they going to ask for in return. It's not going to help any of us existing shareholders if the price reaches 6p on initial production if we have been diluted 75% in the meantime.

I think the re-rate is underway, we're already up 30% since end of Q1, but only getting started. The beautiful thing here, is that it's a copper play now not gold and yet has moved in line with the gold price and other goldmines. Once the ANALysts figure out this is >50% copper miner and that copper production each quarter is expected to be the same as the whole of last year then the buyers will come flooding in. I'd say a £400m valuation based on current prices and production expectations for 2026 is fair value

It looks like gold price is stabilizing around $4700 in Q2 '26 which is $600 higher than the Q4 '25 average. That should ensure that even as production at Runraro reduces this year, cashflow and profitability stay high. A lot does depend on La India coming into production in Q4, but I don't see this not happening. My only real fear is if the BoD plus the major shareholders decide to stiff us smaller shareholders. An orchestrated effort to delay La India and lower the sp over the next few months and then a dilutive new issuance below market value to increase Drach & Candy percentage holdings of the pot of gold could easily dent the gains we stand to make ... and it would only be the 4th or 5th time in the last decade that I have personally been taken for a ride by devious directors of gold mines.

So it very much looks like gold price is stabilizing around $4700 which is $600 higher than the Q4 '25 average. Based on that valuation alone then 2026 results for ALTYN would be something like $250m revenue and over $90m PaT. Seems to me that a p/e of five is far too low for a company that has shown consistent, disciplined growth for the past 5yrs, is debt-free and will have close to $100m in the bank by Dec 2026 .... and that's without any further growth or development.

The Summary Financial Statement shows Altyn throwing off $90m free cash each year for the next three years provided they do nothing to grow the business and the gold price retreats to $4k. Let's hope they decide to use less than half of that cash to pay a 10% dividend ! .... or better yet, resist in the US and see the share price re-rate from £11 to $30

The company really do need to get these results published on the RNS so that stupid analysts can see them. The BoD are stating that net profit rises from $62m to $85m based on $4000 gold price ... so based on real gold price that means more than $100m ... or a P/E ratio below 4. .... and that's valuing Teren Sai at zero !

Lee, I buy most of your narrative, but I'm very cynical about the motives of most CEO's and BoD of AIM listed miners ... I've been taken for a ride far too often to care over the past 10-20yrs. What's to stop the following happening. DB announces Q2 Runruno production drops to 10k oz and AISC rises ; same in Q3 down to 8-9k oz and further rise. FCF drops in both quarters and some teething problems at La India mean first pour will be end of Q4. Share price drifts towards 10p. Then early in Q4 he announces first pour delayed into Q1 '27 and 'out of an abundance of caution' the major investors Candy & Drachs have offered to shore up MTL finances by purchasing an additional 800m shares between them at 5p to provide £40m liquidity to deal with the 3 month delay in production at LaIndia as Runruno stops production. Hey - Ho a nice 25% dilution for us suckers !

Does anybody know how many warrants we still have outstanding and also the terms of the Copper Price Bonus ?

Warrant exercise revaluation cost us $50m in 2025 accounts and the Copper bonus is showing as another $50m liability ($30m cost in 2025) before we have even produced any copper. Might need to re-evaluate my calculation of future earnings if these two components will again dwarf actual profitability in 2026 onwards

Last week of April / first week of May is when we typically get Annual Results and Q1 updates. We are now trading below the Y/E share price, but we're through Q1 2026 where the gold price averaged $4800. It's pretty much guaranteed that FY 2025 will show revenue around $150m and Net Profit around $50m. If Q1 production hits the bottom end of target, 13k oz, we should be showing a net profit for the quarter around $40m. At current prices that represents a 2026 p/e ratio below THREE ... a sharp rise should be imminent !

Decided to look in on this BB and the RNS from this company after ignoring it for a couple of months. Seems little has changed, but the store conversion program is going to have to accelerate if they wish to reach 200 integrated store by end of 2027 ... seven more quarters and sixty more stores needed !

Even at 200 stores they don't seem to be raising the revenue per store significantly. But maybe, just maybe they can get revenue to $90m and net margin to 10% = $9m .... and then get rated on a p/e of TEN .... now what would that make the market cap .... oh £67m, exactly where we are now !