Member Info for RetiredBanker

I'll be very interested to see whether MOON H1 results tomorrow do anything to justify their mkt cap being 2.5 x higher than CARD on lower revenue, lower profit and slower growth. I am however worried about the cost increases coming through in April from the Budget by probably the most anti-business government we've had in my lifetime !

Does anybody know much about Fratelli Investments Ltd and Greenstone Capital LLP ?

These are our two major shareholders with 25% stake each. Could they collude to force through an offer at £1 and take this company private just as the value is coming to fruition ? I've been screwed so many times on gold miners being bought out on the cheap just as the value is starting to accrue. I see SRB as worth atleast 150p just on current production, but am ever fearful that us private investors won't get to see that value

One word of caution. Even though I have come to realise the efficient market theorem is b*****ks. The actions of the investment community need to be considered. When this "offer" was first announced the price of HUM gapped down to 2.15p. Today on "re-confirmation" of the offer it gapped up to 2.15p initially but has already dropped to 1.9p. Suggesting that the market thinks the 2.67p offer is less certain today than it was a month ago

Bushy, whilst I haven't agreed with your excessive optimism about a positive outcome, your observation "Administration here isn't a bad thing... Coris would cede all control of the assets to an independent operator who would treat all shareholders equally" is truly delusional. The Administrator has no interest in the private investors, they generally care about keeping the employees in work and as many elements of the business operating as possible. To that end they are ALWAYS willing to let the insider management team or significant creditors or shareholders take the assets at derisory prices so long as they guarantee jobs. In this instance they could probably be convinced to let YAN go to the Mali Gov't for nothing but to free any obligations. They'd also sell Dugbe for 20¢ on the $ to CORIS (or Betts if he stumped up $5m). Which then leaves KOU ... an Asset with $300m+ of capex investment already spent to make it a functioning (lets say, merely 60k oz ) gold mine. At the moment Coris are going to get that for around $30m ... they might have competition if the Administrator allows others to bid !!! They will pay 2.67p for exclusivity

gi ryan, i write on these bb's to give my opinion and get alternate perspectives to challenge my thinking. over the years i've put about £90k into hum and it's now worth less than 1/10th that ... so i'm willing to go to zero or double my money from here, just to see how this **** show plays out. liquidity has been a concern all along ... if the latest bout was really thottling kou production why still state that 20k oz is expected q4 production ... the liar betts might have said that knowing it wasn't true, don't think geoff eyre would. also this goes to administration and coris / cig / nioko lose pasafino. why not simply ask for pasafino 50% stake as full payment for the $30m unsecured loan ? as a 'minor' part of the total business the bod can probably authorise this without any shareholder involvement and that way coris have an asset valued at $37.5m regardless of hum mining activities. this is all about liquidity through h2 '25 ... a 100k oz mine at kou is now a reality. even with just a six year life and a 20% discount rate that's worth over $330m !

GI Ryan - I sympathise with you for taking a large loss, but don't fully understand your sudden change of heart on an RNS which I don't feel is nearly as negative as you think. Accepting DB was incompetent the announcements re KOU have for a long time been a 100k oz producer ... which is 52 wks at a little over 1900k oz p.w, so they are at their target run-rate. Also selling at $2450 with AISC below $1500 and producing close to 20k oz in Q4 means they throw off $20m cash.

So mothball YAN, keep the Mali gov't at bay with lawyers for a few years ... or give them 50% stake for full settlement of liabilities, sell Dugbe or not and just focus on KOU for six months. Q1 net profit $20m same as Q4 with hedges in place, and Q2 throws off $24m unhedged at current spot price. Seems to me somebody should be willing to lend $30m on Dec 31st for six months at 50% interest and be pretty sure of getting their money back.

Ryan, everything you said about Coris et al not wanting to go to Administration last week still stands. My loss on this pos is worse than yours from the past week, but mine is over 8yrs of investing and hoping they could grow successfully. Over the past few years they've borrowed about $300m to build KOU and now they have a functioning 100koz producing mine. I still believe somebody other than the current shysters see servicing the debt as worthwhile when you're making atleast $60m net profit annually

Price is dropping because enough shareholders are bailing out to get something rather than nothing.

I personally feel GoldInvestor Ryan has made the right call ... but incredibly brave to put 200k on the line to get a 50k profit.

Frankly I'm invested in several other gold miners which I feel have much more than 25% upside.

I don't see this going to administration - Coris want it too badly on the cheap to risk a third party getting involved

As for Nioko/Coris offerring less than 2.67p well we need to merely read the RNS to see how this would be possible "In accordance with Rule 2.5(a) of the Code, Nioko reserves the right to make an offer for the Company at a lower value than the Offer Price: (i) with the agreement or recommendation of the Board of the Company; or (ii) if a third party announces a firm intention to make an offer for the Company which, at that date, is of a value less than the value of the Offer Price."

Either ii) a lower third party bid - not going to happen or i) with BoD agreement. So the question is whether Dan & Co having told Nioko / Coris they're going to allow them to rape PI's with derisory offer, now collude to let them sodomise us too !

Thank you both for identifying what I was missing ...and the link to the YouTube video.

I was trying to understand why this was still so lowly valued and trying to find a reason. The video actually states that they are deliberately expensing capex to make the current year results seem worse than they are. Even as a 38k oz producer I expect this to be on a mkt cap around 140m. As a 48k oz producer in 2025 and 60k oz in 2026 the mkt cap really ought to move towards 225m over next two years ... and with the Hodgson interview showing a future path to 70k oz - 100k oz I really feel this is going to make us a lot of money unless a nefarious takeover occurs like I've suffered with SHG / HUM

Does anybody know why SRB are predicting 2025 output to fall 25%, before returning to current level of around 40k oz in 2026 onwards ? I can't find anything to explain this pessimistic perspective.

MOON now trading on 3x the p/e of CARD ! When they announced a less generous dividend than CARD the sp rose 15%. If they were to offer 1 MOON share for every 2 CARD shares they would be getting the steal of the century and yet we would still profit handsomely ... so much for efficient markets

So good to see consistent results again. It would seem to me that we are on target for FY Revenue of $90m and PaT of $23m putting us on a current p/e ratio of 4 ! I've long felt a PE of 8 is fair for miners with their inherent risks, but even if you think the PE should be six we deserve to be priced around 375p without considering growth potential. However I've had large potential profits 'stolen' from me on SHG & HUM this year ... so I'll remain fearful of the risk of a nefarious takeover

Skint, You almost certainly won't get the option to stay in the private unlisted company.

The Coris parties want 100% of this money printer for themselves. Offering 2.6777p is there way of securing a £300m company for 1/10th that price. They will have sufficient votes to complete a compulsory takeover.

Sadly this is yet another example of why AIM is merely a den of thieves, barely fit to be called a market

Sadly this is another example of why shareholders (especially on AIM) don't really own the company. The BoD can dictate what happens and BondHolders can wipe out shareholders with impunity. As G7 said it happened with Shanta. It's absurd that the holders of 30m debt can get 50% equity in this company for that price. As a functioning 100k oz producer HUM should be throwing off 60m net profit annually. But DB & Co somehow couldn't service the debt even with gold hitting $2750. G7's gamble will almost certainly pay off ... I no longer have funds to double down on this bet ... but I would suggest 2.6777p is the floor price now. Coris might however still find some competition ... this was valued above 9p as recently as 3mths ago. A counter-offer to pay back all of the debt at par and then offer 4p per share would enable somebody to get HUM for £180m when it's worth double that if run properly

Buster, I have indeed raised concerns about being taken private in the past and still don't understand how the Assaubayev's are permitted to have 65% stake without making an offer. My understanding is that any such offer would have to be atleast the highest price they have paid over the past 12mths ... but they haven't been buying and 12mths ago we were around £1. So there must be a small chance we could get screwed. Conversely even at 40k oz production level, which is what we are now we should be worth double the current market cap ... and if they achieve there goal of 100k oz producer in the next 2-3yrs then we should be much closer to a £500m mkt cap company. So a whole lot depends on whether us private investors have any protection by the regulator or not from unscrupulous actions. In the past I've assigned weightings to various outcomes and then derived a 'fair value' ... so here goes

For y/e 2024 : 25% we get screwed @ £1 ; 75% we get valued as 40k oz low cost producer @ £5 => £4

For 2-3yrs : 25%@ £1 ; 25% @ £5 as above ; 50% a 100k oz producer @ £12 => £7.50

I wonder if some people put 10% trailing stop losses onto their holdings and these got triggered when price fell from 260p to 234p ... causing further fall. Definitely feel this isn't based on underlying business. Also don't feel this the result of leaked Q3 update ... the Assaubayev's don't go in for that sh*t

Just got a top slice executed at 250p ... a price we haven't seen since Aug 2020 !

Still have great faith we're heading over £3 but wanted to crystalise some profits on, what is now, the largest holding in my SIPP

I've lost more than I care to mention on this stock. But saga's like this give you a chance to reflect on whether stock markets actually serve any useful purpose. When the rules allow charlatans like DC to continue in business when they're clearly not capable. All the more so when he will probably be permitted to buy the assets for pennies on the pound and still make out like a bandit. Sadly AIM is full of such companies and the regulatory oversight is non-existent. One redeeming outcome for my personal portfolio is that value is at last being recognised in another of my long term holdings ALTN. Who would have thought that a Kazak Nepo Oligarch would make a more trustworthy CEO than an Old School English Gent like DC. Funny world we live in.

Put in a top slice limit order at 300p a couple of weeks ago and got executed this morning. Happy to bank a few grand on 10% of my holding, but equally happy to hold and see whether they will rise further on any budget announcements incentivising housebuilding ... and with my average around £1, I'm receiving almost 10% div on my original investment.

Made lots of duff investments over the years, this is proving one of my better ones

I agree - great results, although I'd like to understand the foreign currency fluctuations better as they have turned $8m vs $3m profit for the period vs prior year into almost identical $4.xxm attributable profit. However in another couple of weeks we should get Q3 production update which will hopefully show 12-13k oz. Ideally we sell some of the gold stock, reduce debt and re-finance in lower cost $ debt and then we might see this reach true value going into 2025. Let's look forward to £3 per share before Xmas

Bought here many moons ago at 37p and decided to cut my losses today and take a punt on a minnow called FIN

Rather than watching the slow grind on MHC I can now compare returns from FIN ... hope I've made a good punt