The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Just freed up some cash in my SIPP to add to my ALTN holding
This RNS is a joke on many fronts, not least why they didn't request immediate suspension to have this technical issue sorted by the time trading resumes. Nevertheless I've added £10k expecting a 25% profit within the week.
Hopefully Littlejohn publish next Thursday and suspension lifted on Friday 5th with the sp returning to 150p instantly.
... but we might have to wait for the Coronation holiday on 8th to pass before the resumption in trading.
IMHO everybody invested should add on this aberration
Eski "Imagine getting HUR for 0.83p per a share" ... it's very easy to imagine this - just look at the share price 2yrs ago this month when Maris tried to sellout the shareholders for his own self interest. Thankfully Crystal Amber were able to force him to back track and keep the company in the hands of the existing shareholders. That's one of the main reasons why I think this is a fair (if not overtly generous offer) - CA have better knowledge than most of us as to what is truly going on inside the Boardroom and they have decided this is the best offer available
Nice to see the sp almost back to where it was in May '22, which itself was 50% down on Apr-May '21.
Most of the slide in price over the past year was a result of the truly appalling AISC figures which accompanied quarterly earnings, culminating in DB telling us that in Q1 '22 : 15.5k oz were produced @ $2235 = $34.8mm cost, whereas Q1 '23 : 27.3k oz were produced @ $1109 = $30.2mm total cost. I think these figures defy credibility - so are DB / TH incompetent or deceptive ? Do they simply not know how to strip out development costs on Kouroussa from Yanfolia AISC or did they want to crush the sp in order to get a new major shareholder on board, increase their own holdings and dilute existing holders.
I've been holding for years and expecting a return to 40p for a long time, with the dilution this only becomes 30p, but I'm slightly hopeful that the sheenanigans are behind us and we do hit that 30p target even without Kouroussa fully operational. Get us to 160-200k oz production and a £300-400m mkt cap is very realisable, despite DB's best efforts !
One week until results ... then we re-rate above MOON price !
Higher revenue ; more profitable and faster growth. At some point this has to get recognised by the wider market ... a solid single digit p/e ratio ... we just need dividend restored
Monty - the new issuance i) will go ahead ; ii) will be priced below 100p (probably 75p tops) and the only thing we as small private investors need to know is iii) will it be offered as a 1:5 existing shares to ALL shareholders or will JD have lined up a couple of institutional buddies to take 75% of the new issuance, whilst he takes the other 25% to maintain his % and we all get diluted .... I suspect the latter - and the share price has responded accordingly (20% increase in shares = 17% drop in price to remain at same value)
It seems to me that this share is really being priced for the most pessimistic outlook for S.Africa.
Assume we drop another £1.50 (ish) on ex-div date and we're trading around £7.25-7.50. So around the £1bn mkt cap.
Now av coal price in 2021 was still well below current level, so even if we see coal stick around 140p.t we should make around £500m net profit ... a p/e of 2 and every likelihood of another dividend return well in excess of 25% yield
What's not to like !!! If by some chance the BoD decided to buy some put options in Q3 last year then we'd really be sitting pretty - I'm assuming they didn't otherwise they would have mentionned it in the annual report
TAF - I think you'd do well to put your money on ALTN again ... even with the recent rise I still feel ALTN deserves a price north of 250p not the current sub 150p ... it's one of my Top Three holdings in my SIPP. Another one worth researching is TGA (S.African Coalminer ludicrously under-appreciated imho ... with a lot of ESG concerns preventing the big boys seeing the value)
I do wonder what prompts all these ridiculous transactions for single or double digit share volumes when the investment is less than £10. Looks like the proper spread is around 10.1 - 10.4 .... so around 3% which is quite tight
I've long thought HUM is massively undervalued ... hoping we now rise steadily back towards 20p
TAF - I'm still here - though now highly diluted.
Just looked back to 1/1/23 and the mkt cap is almost identical ... but with 3.5x the #shares !
I had hoped that the price might rise in 2023 from the 2-3p level back up to the heady heights of 7.5p and that I might reduce my losses from 90% to merely 60%, but I'm really not sure. The reality is that Hamish has kept his 50% stake whilst finding some mugs to invest £250k ... but that's all that has happened, an additional £250k of working capital.
This company still has around $4-5mm of operating expense and financing costs to cover ; it has a gross margin of around 20-25% so it needs to get revenue up to around $20-25mm just to breakeven. In 20years of trading this has accumulated $140mm of retained losses ... average $7mm per year ; sadly I feel continuing that trend is much more likely than achieving profitability. But take a punt if you're a gambler ; this could go from 1p to 2p before the PILOWs get exercised and add another 45mm shares to the mkt cap
There is huge amount of speculation going on here, so I'll throw in my tuppence worth based on some of what we know, some of what we presume and some of the things which are totally unknown.
For starters, we know that Maris has no interest in protecting small shareholders and is looking after #1 - but he can't be a complete liar in official pronouncements. We also know that Crystal Amber rebuffed him in 2021 when he tried to gift the company to the bondholders but for some reason didn't force him to resign ! We can presume that when they heard about the 7.7p offer in November they thought this wasn't bad, given their desire to crystalise their investment. We can also presume that they feel this offer is a 'better' deal than 7.7p since they (and Kerogen) are voting in favor.
The Q&A suggests a realistic valuation of 8.17-8.98p .... with possible further upside to 12.5p.
The Q&A also states 12 companies involved in FSP with 5 offers made ; presumably CA knew of all the offers and agreed this was best for them (and us) and didn't think another round of chicken was going to illicit a better offer.
We don't know the life of the field or future production, we don't know the future price of oil, we don't know how the tax losses can be used and we don't know what the future tax regime on North Sea oil is going to be, but we can guess that UK government will continue to tax oil & gas excessively to raise revenue and show "green" credentials.
We know that we haven't seen a share price of 12.5p in the past 4yrs, even after the excellent 2021 results and Ukraine spike in Mar 2022. For my part - I had a target of 15p to make a very healthy profit on my 4.3p average.
I'm sure Prax believe they can get atleast 15p value out of HUR, so they're offerring about 1/2 that now with some further upside over the next 3yrs should everything work out well for them. Given the history of this company I'm going to be pragmatic and hope that I get 9p out of this. 6p in 2023 and then 1-2p for each of the next 3 yrs via the DCUs
So a week ago the company announced that profit would exceed £750m and we move from trading on a p/e of three to 1.5 but the sp still keeps fallings ... perhaps they should hold back some of the cash so that next year they can announce a dividend greater than mkt cap to see how the "intelligent" fund management / market making community react
As always with LVCG real facts and figures are hard to come by.
If I'm not mistaken the last time we were given any proper numbers were the interims reported on 30th Sept showing a net loss for the six months. It also took until end of June to report the Dec 2021 finals ... so I'm not expecting anything useful to come from DC for a while. However, in theory we have just two weeks to go before Jason Lee will have paid over £750k for 25mm shares taking his holding to 20% of the company. I feel everything really hinges on whether he is going ahead with that investment given current share price. Unless we get the "change in major holding" RNS before 5th April, I think we must assume the worst ... I really hope that DC appreciates that radio silence on important facts & figures is doing huge harm, which all the "touchy feely" updates do nothing to allay. I still believe this is a worthwhile punt, but I'd prefer if DC took a break from jet-setting around the world to nice sports & arts events and instead got down to the serious CEO job of publishing 2022 results and penning a worthwhile outlook update which investors could take seriously
It's all about patience.
I'm very, very confident that CARD share price will converge with MOON at some point this year.
I'm hoping the convergence will be at a Mkt Cap around £400m, such that our sp rises to 125p to match theirs rather than vice-versa, all the updates would suggest to me, we're still undervalued
Sadly it doesn't look as thought Assaubayev or BoD is going to give a Q4 update.
Useful information has always been in short supply with this company in first quarter of the year.
However I feel patience is all that is needed here.
With luck we'll get audited results sometime in April and then a Q1 update in May.
By my calculations Assaubayev's own around 70% of the total equity at an average around 250p (in new money)
There interests are very much aligned with ours ... I'm confident we'll get back to 3p (=300p now)
... ideally I'd like to see it before June 30th - but I can wait.
Where else do you have such a good chance of 100%+ upside in 2023 !!!
Bunsen - you only need to read two pages of comments on this BB to get a 4yr history of the company.
MD owns 50% of the equity ; it's a food producer in Africa and if it was capable of making just 3% net profit on sales then it would be on a p/e of 2. Sadly for many, many years it has failed to deliver
... Africa continues to be a basket case place to invest ... Not being ****** just a realist
I've averaged down, many times on this over the years and now own a declarable % interest in the company ... but have still lost 90% ... it's a DelBoy stock - "maybe next year Rodney" ! but DYOR
So the CA / Maris bunfight continues behind closed doors with all us PI's in the dark.
Clearly by now they know what 2022 FY results look like.
BTW - does anybody know whether we managed 2,3 or 4 liftings in H2 '22 ?
Interim results were $160m revenue ; $67mm PAT and throwing off $100mm of free cash
August announcement had us repaying all convertibles and still having $75mm cash
Assume H2 simply mirrors H1 (i.e only 2 liftings Aug - Dec) and we should see FY Revenue $320m ; PAT of $130mm and free cash above the current Mkt Cap. We could also have seen a lifting in early Jan and maybe have a second one scheduled in Q1 ... with each lifting throwing off $25mm free cash I'd say that Maris is in a very weak position to try to **** shareholders again, but I've been on the receiving end of too many shady insider deals to feel comfortable.
Have just added back a thousand shares I top sliced a while ago. This price is too good to be true.
Going to get 300p dividend announced quite soon so I'll get more than 1/3rd my purchase price straight back.
Yes coal price in 2023 isn't likely to match 2022, but the profit for last year is very real, the cash generated is real and the amount used to purchase an alternate asset in Australia isn't going to make a big dent in the finances.
S.Africa is a bit of a basket case right now, but it's a risk well worth taking in my opinion
"Love him or hate him, DC is a VERY clever business man"
HandspringGuy ... I beg to differ.
DC has taken a solid business based off the lego product valued at £40m in 2018 and turned it into a hotch-potch of his favorite Art fads worth £6m ... nothing clever there in my opinion. He is a show-man as you yourself say, but his business acumen is in very short supply. We get endless soundbites about wonderful new ventures but we never get actual $/¢ figures about profitability. He jets around the world with his wife, living the good life at our expense. He's no doubt in discussions with the auditors about how much of his business expenses he can capitalise as R&D to make the reported loss appear less than it is. He's DelBoy Trotter with a caviar canape ! Buy, hey, if there are enough people like you who think he's a clever businessman then this might bounce back and give me a chance to get out at a lower loss ! It went from 4p - 8p in a week in April 2021 and 8p - 12p in a week in April 2022 so I'm hoping for the same irrational spike as my exit strategy
very true ... I bought both SHOE & CARD when they were in the Covid doldrums, so often compare both
... SHOE has recovered 4-fold ; CARD only doubled - but it still has plenty to offer
Well the two share prices continue to converge. I've only just noticed that they have almost exactly the same number of shares in issuance so a direct comparison of value is very easy. Over past 12 mths MOON has dropped from 300 - 130p and SHOE risen from 50 - 100p. SHOE revenue is above MOON and despite (or because of) high street presence the net margins are similar. Read a very interesting article recently about how woefully inefficient / administratively burdensome UBER / LYFT are compared with good old fashioned taxi companies. Seems the same can be true for bricks & mortar vs online retailers. Only question is whether the convergence happens above or below 120p and when. My guess is Q2 rather than Q1.