The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"Simple, it's ridiculous, DC just needs to communicate the current position with facts. it would then stop all the speculation." .... and that is the crux of the problem "DC communication" & "facts" have nothing whatsoever in common and haven't for about 2yrs now. There are so many gaps in the recent RNS that need explaining that it is impossible to make any rational judgements about the viability or not of LVCG. Only thing for all of us to be concerned by right now is : if we relist and at what price ! I still hope it will happen, but frankly every day that passes makes me less comfortable
Dofmeister, that would be very nice, and would possibly even tempt the Assaubayev family to relinquish control, but I won't be holding my breathe ! Instead I'll just continue to wait for the 2023 FY results : 60m revenue ; 15m (ish) profit. We will then have generated $45m net profit off of $170m revenue in a highly consistent manner over the past 3 yrs. Surely those sort of figures will make somebody recognise that this company is worth more than £27m. But you have to go all the way back to Aug 2020 to see a share price above £2 equiv !
The final maturity date for tranche 'A' of the term loans WAS 31 January 2024.
Darcy has already told us that 30th April is when we get the 2024 results, but we have also already been told that revenue is 500m and net profit 60m. What I'm really looking for on 30th April is an announcement of 8p dividend for 2025. With that I sincerely hope this revalues from pe
Well said Private Ryan ... we will not be included in this capital raising, it has already been filled by the BOD & insiders to dilute us substantially. Like I wrote previously 80m new shares from debt conversion @3p and 150m new shares issued at 1p. Only remaining question is whether they propose a further "open placing" of one share for each of the now existing 500m shares 0.5p to raise a further £2.5mm working capital. We either are forced to subscribe or get even further diluted
I suspect the RNS today might have been in response to the drivel being spouted on this BB and others.
Our shares were suspended on 3rd July, we had six months leeway to file the accounts and then a further one month extension was granted because of 'technical' issues with processing backlog ... that got us to 3rd Feb 2024, a Saturday so the cessation of trading will take place on Monday 5th Feb ... this RNS merely re-iterates that.
As for the nonsense Tintin claims he is being told by DC - well we all know DC is incompetent as a CEO but he is not so stupid as to believe he can pass insider information on to selected shareholders. I'll find out via a bona fide RNS whether this company still exists either late Friday or early Monday, until then nothing worth saying
I think we're all in agreement that this is the company's last week in existence unless the accounts get published and the suspension lifted by cob Friday. Now it's my belief that DC will want to keep this gravy train running to fund his social life and will do what is necessary to perpetuate that. The last update eluded to some of the ways to reduce debt and increase working capital. It mentionned amounts that he and others were willing to convert debt to equity at 3p per share as well as a fund raising at 1p per share. I'm pretty certain that none of those directors are going to convert at 3p unless they are also getting same again atleast at 1p. So my guess is we see 80m new shares at 3p and a minimum of 150m new shares at 1p.
The new company has around 500m shares ; maybe 1.5m of working capital and still an awful lot of work to do to make enough money to service the remaining debt ... In so doing we've been diluted a minimum 50%. Those who have been invested long enough know that LVCG bricklive business has been valued at £50m. Let's assume that we could return to £25m valuation, on the enlarged share capital that would equate to 5p per share. It's just about possible we don't lose everything !
I believe the reason for the negative market reaction is that profitability has flatlined these past two quarters, even with gold at $1900. That's the problem of a small miner with large(ish) overheads. However if we could just replicate H1 and achieve around $60m revenue and $10m net profit over the course of a full year then this really ought to be worth double current price.
Coal at
"thin gruel" indeed .... which is why Anglo offloaded in 2021 after many years of achieving nothing. The subsequent coal price surge made money for those of us lucky enough to get in early, but we going to need another price shock to return this to serious profitability. Just a shame that they didn't forward sell a few year's production in early 2022 !
Still £400mm in the bank gives them some leeway
The real competition is MOON .... CARD dominate the "in person" market.
What I cannot understand is just how much higher revenue, better margins, higher profitability and faster growth than MOON does CARD have to achieve before it is given even the same valuation.
Change the name to AiCard ... state they're using Ai to write all the drivel inside the cards and relist on the Nasdaq and we would instantaneously get revalued from a p/e of 7 to 37 on the hype ... how does a $6.00 share price sound !
Well CIG are firmly in control of HUM now ! They have 42% of the enlarged 800mm share capital and have willingly just paid 11.26p for over 100mm shares ... suggest they know more than the average 'fund manager'
Graham, it's not the company itself which sets up DRIP, it's the investment platform you are using
Chem - delisting would occur on 1st Feb - correct.
But company has just re-stated it will get 2023 accounts issued in January to prevent that from happening.
Issue is DC says a lot of rubbish in his RNS ... so have to treat this with a pinch of salt.
Most likely, imho, is that we survive past 1st Feb .... but probably at no more than 2.05p !
Buster - keep the faith !
I've only been invested since 2016 and on a few occasions top sliced when price was around 250p (equiv) so am only slightly down on the trade ... but I really see potential to return to that level quite soon. It would be nice if they gave a Q4 update this month and then got the final results published in early Q2. Also nice if they restructured the capital to use the share premium account to wipeout retained losses and start paying a dividend a.s.a.p. This share could be on a p/e of one by the end of 2024 if something doesn't change !
Bennster - one thing you need to remember is that back in 2019 (pre Covid) the Bricks business generated $5m revenue at about 50% gross margin ... it was the excessive admin costs that were killing the business .... mostly servicing DC lifestyle.
With some oversight from outside investors, I believed it would be possible for just that business to create value for us. The past few years have led me to lose any faith in DC but with a non-corrupt BoD I still think this could be worth 6-8p
Just seen that HL has marked my holding in LVCG down to zero !
Hope this is administrative error rather than sign of what is to come when the markets re-open
Happy New Year !
As I've mentionned many times before - CARD & MOON have almost identical number of shares in issue, so direct comparison of the share prices is valid. CARD is consistently 25% more revenue and profit than MOON and yet trades at 70% discount ... this is madness ! At some point the share prices must converge .... hopefully around the 150p mark before the end of January
The impairment booked in FY23 to record a net loss, masks the fact that operating results were in fact better than FY22.
So if you look at the sp chart in Aug '22 when those results were reported, I think you have a much better assessment of the true value here. I believe over the next six months we can rise back to 15-20p .... and even if the market doesn't see this value, we keep getting a 10%+ dividend !!!
So much of the assumed value here depends on the development of Kou in 2024 (forget Dugbe). DB has got this wrong on a number of occasions over the past 12 mths and had to resort to new issuances to bail out his inability to bring the production levels up. However we've had a consistent narrative about 200k oz producer in 2024 for a while now and a promise to give FY update and proper guidance for 2024 in January ... I think we're too close to that date for completely misleading production figures to be still being quoted. The debt is a major concern for HUM and I've been involved in AIM miners where all the shareholder value has been wiped out by letting the bondholders take control on the cheap. It seems to me that CIG have prevented that from happening. They got a large stake at 7.79p in Feb and are now willing to pay 11.2p, seems to me they could have simply taken a 40% gain in 9mths if they didn't have faith in even larger returns by increasing their stake. I can see why some people are bailing out, but I think this is the wrong time. My paper losses on HUM are significant but I genuinely believe that CIG involvement should act as a foil to DB's actions ... not least I hope they teach him how to calculate AISC ; you cannot possibly have AISC jump from $1100 to $2300 and back to $1500 within the space of a few quarters, but that is what DB has reported to us. I'm reminded here of Hurricane Energy where the shyster CEO tried to destroy the shareholders until Crystal Amber hedge fund stepped in and curtailed his power. I eventually got out about 50% ahead and it could have been so much more if I had held my nerve entirely. This could drop back to 7.8p where CIG bought in, or could rise above 20p, maybe no longer by Xmas ... but certainly end of Q1 '24 ... I'll hold firm
Kenj - a name from the past at Petropavlovsk - welcome to this ****show !
It doesn't seem as though anybody on this BB is considering CIG actions at the moment. They have convinced DB to let them increase their stake in the company massively at a price of 11.26p. A price which no doubt they have been negotiating for a while. Now HUM sp was below this level for the whole of Q4 until 27th Nov when it spiked to 12.9p. Why the spike ? Probably some insider fund got wind of the CIG increase in stake and assumed it would be at a much higher price ... or maybe they bought in at 11p and other small PI's pushed the price to 12.9p. Either way the salient point is surely that CIG are willing to pay 11.26p for 20%+ of the company, shortly before HUM are expected to double production. Maybe they haven't done any due diligence and maybe they're being taken for a ride by DB, but I suspect they have much greater knowledge of the real position they we do and have made an educated decision. 2021 & 2022 were relentlessly grim for us lth with free money sloshing around the Western world and interest rates at near zero. But we started 2023 below 7p and rocketed to almost 20p with the demise of cheap money and gold returning to favour. That enthusiasm has been put in check, but any form of half decent production at Kou is going to make this highly undervalued. Even if Yan & Kou each only managed 60k oz in 2024 then I'd still value HUM at about 3x it's current Mkt Cap