The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Just had a quick look at the option prices available on CME. They could place Mar / Jun & Sept '24 zero cost collars with strikes of 2080 - 2100 at spreads of 50 - 100. So downside floored at around 2020p at the expense of not gaining if price rises above 2200p ... a very sensible strategy which I suspect CIG are imposing on DB to protect their sizable investment
Nobody seems to have considered that CIG held a gun to DB's head and told him to manufacture an offer that gave them a much higher stake but threw enough of a bone for other shareholders to accept the placing. Perhaps they said "do this or you don't have a job - we'll use our 23% stake to vote you out".
I'm a little perplexed that the price has dropped well below the offer price, I think this shows that CIG know what a money spinner they have bought into. I'm too heavily overweight and don't have spare cash to add more at this price but I do feel 11.2p is a new floor. With 200k oz production my belief is we're worth between £300-400m ... so instead of rising back to 40p we achieved in 2020 we're now diluted to only rise to 28p ... I can live with that.
Especially knowing that DB is now the puppet in charge, but CIG run the show. I'm also happy to see a zero cost collar being deployed to limit our downside. With the price and trajectory of gold as it is currently, I suspect they will be able to achieve a floor price above $1800, which will pretty much guarantee profitable production regardless of future hiccups
It's sad how this company operates and the sp moves.
B/O spread of 7 - 10p yesterday replaced by spread of 9 - 11p today causes the price here to show a supposed 17.65% increase ! ... and when I put a dummy sell into HL I get offered a price of 10.1p
Hopefully at some point some of the intrinsic value will accure to us "little people"
Let's hope we see a repeat of Q4 '22. Last year when FY trading update given the sp was 180p it drifted upwards to 205p the day before FY results announced on 9th Jan, then 20% up in week following. This year with better FY trading update we start at 215p ... so a nice drift to 230-240p before a hike to 280-290p would be a great start to the New Year and fully justified
I hope a repeat of Apr / early May is on the cards to take us rapidly back to 20p.
What would be really nice on 4th Dec would be for Dan to put out a release stating Kou production for Oct was XXX oz and for Nov YYY oz and we believe Dec will exceed 6k oz setting us up for full production in 2024.
An announcement like that with gold staying above $2k could see us back into the 30-40p range like Q3 2020
A 10% rise in the minimum wage from April is going to put added cost pressure on every high street retailer that hires junior staff on under £15p.h
A 10% rise in the minimum wage from April is going to put added cost pressure on every high street retailer that hires junior staff on under £15p.h
We had a Mid Nov trading update last year ... really wish the BoD published the same again this year
Still believe we're only approaching fair value when our sp converges with MOON (currently 180p)
I think the BoD would not have bought the equipment for Coringa if they thought the licensing agreement wasn't going to be finalised. But when it does get announced that Coringa will start production in 2024 then the sp will gap back to 75p
Bennster, if anybody had started buying in quantity at 2.05p the sp would have quickly risen. Only way to get near that price is to make an offer (to be put to the shareholders by a BoD that actually cares to exercise it's fiduciary duties which DC doesn't). Forget about all the fluff and nonsense DC has bolted on in the past couple of year's ... give him any assets connected to StartArt to make him complete on what he claims he's owed (remember he's the one who valued StartArt at £5m). Try to find a buyer for LCSE S.A Formula E & Ocean Race fluff , see if Jason Lee believes there is any value whatsoever in the KPop 'property' ... then the buyer has a viable Bricklive business .... heck even The Lego Group might want to own the rights to that piece as a very small part of it's overall marketing strategy
I think the only thing preventing DC from delisting and then asset stripping the company to start over without all "us" pesky shareholders trying to hold him to account ... is if a wholly independent party goes to the liquidators and offers a higher price for the assets / company !
For all we know DC has had an offer at 2.5-3p per share which he doesn't want to tell us about because he would then lose his golden egg.
Definitely don't think anybody should sell until CARD sp exceeds MOON.
Sure MOON made some gains in 2020/21 when nobody was allowed outdoors to go shopping, but if you look at 2022/23 it's pretty obvious that CARD has 50% higher revenue and profit than MOON ... at some stage the market must recognise this and give CARD a higher Mkt Cap. If H2 just matches last year then we'll be around £480m Rev & £55m net profit, if it shows growth at same rate as H1 yoy then revenue £500m+ and profit could exceed £60m ... MC > £500m would be conservative
I'd say it's very disturbing that just £15k of buys can move the sp by over 10%. Guess this is a sign that the investor presentation was well received. I've held for a very long time and still believe this is atleast 50% undervalued. Let's hope another £100k of buy orders come in and push the price back into the 80's
Doesn't seem there are too many experts in the financial markets though ! Even with today's 10% rise our market cap is still lower then the worst case valuation of the remaining 67% stake we would continue to own in Phalaborwa. Hopefully we have merely set a new floor to the price of this stock ... and that the next investor will have to pay a significant premium to TechMet
Following Paul Scott's gushing praise and a little research I've taken a small punt here.
I've also done a review of the history (over the past decade) and note that the heady price of 250p was reached in 2013 when there were 85m shares in issue and revenue had increased yoy by 25% to 25m and PaT of around 3m ... so a p/e ratio around 70 ! Even a few years later in Oct '16 the sp was still 150p+ and MC around 150m on Rev of 28.5m and PaT of 5.5m so a rather more sane p/e of 30. Then the oil price collapsed from $120+ to
EUA won't be wound down over $108k fees !
CS could simply use the profit he has just made on exercising his options to cover the cost.
He and DS have far too much invested to let this fold - they know the Monchetundra assets are worth $$$ for the right entity. But by the same token the potential Chinese / Russian or Indian billionaires know they can squeeze them hard at the current time ... DS basically needs to acknowledge he won't be minting a billion from this and decide what figure is tolerable to him ... at that point a sale is finalised
With Long Term Gilt yields returning to the 4-5% range and with an equity risk premium of, say, 3% ... this should mean that a "Solid but unexciting" stock like SHOE should be trading on a p/e around 12 .... which translates to a price closer to 300p. I still firmly believe we'll top 250p again when FY results are announced ... I will take a 'boring' 10% gain in the next two months
In the Q2 update just 3mths ago DB stated "Gold ounces poured at Kouroussa are scheduled to increase during H2-2023. The operation is anticipated to reach steady state production in Q4-2023 and expected to produce circa 30,000 oz for H2-2023.
Today he tells us " In Q3-2023, Kouroussa produced 1,047 oz of gold, and another 614 oz shortly after. The Company's updated production expectations for H2-2023 is c.10,000 oz, and on track for a full year of commercial production from FY-2024."
It's not surprising the market reaction was negative when production for FY23 has been reduced by 20k oz or around 25%.
However we're still being told that Kouroussa production is expected to hit constant monthly run-rate of around 8k oz in 2024 ... and that production of 614oz in 3weeks of Oct will become 2-3k oz (ish) in Nov and 5-6k oz in Dec to get to 10k oz for H2 '23. He was blissfully ignorant of production capability in Q3, but 1/3rd of the way into Q4 is he still blissfully ignorant or will production now ramp up as planned / hoped. If Q4 only realises 1-2k oz per month then prospects of 200k oz production in 2024 are in tatters and DB needs to get his marching orders ... if targets are reached (or even only hit 75%) then this is grossly undervalued ... but even at 160-180k oz production in 2024, repaying of $77m debt is going to be a tall order
Oi-Oi, keep the faith ! Most good quality company shares have been grinding lower for the past 2yrs because cash / bonds have started to offer an alternate. But when you have a share like PLUS trading on a p/e of 5 you're well positioned for an exceptional performance ... SBB's give you implicit 5% return, div add 3% and cap gains will add 10%+ when the market catches up. For some reason 'tech' is still king in the US ... get rid of the Big 7 techhies and the S&P has gone nowhere in 2023. When the tech reversal happens, and it must, there will be plenty of money looking for quality companies on low p/e.
I've set myself a reminder to top slice at 1800p - whether that's this year or next I'm in no hurry
BidOffer spread showing as 15% here, which is ridiculous. however when I just placed a dummy trade I got 19.9 to sell and 21.64 to buy ... a slightly more credible 8% spread