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I don't think this drop will last long. Seems Betts is actually coming through for us long suffering PI's this time.
If Yan makes 90k oz (i.e just 40k oz for H2) and Kou hits 30k oz in H2 then we will be at 120k oz for the year.
Keep AISC below $1500 and gold price around $1900 and I would put a value closer to £200m on HUM at year end !
How many old timers (like Ian) are still active on this forum ?
I bought in Dec '19 @ 3p and finally closed out in Jan '22 @ 25p+ for an overall 8-bagger
I never bought the multi-billion dollar valuations some were hoping for, but I'm back in at 3p again, hoping that a sale of Russian assets is going to happen this year. To the right autocrat buyer these assets could easily sell for $250m and still provide them with huge upside whilst also allowing most current holders to get a healthy profit. There's also a very small chance that Putin will get ousted and Russia will become an investible country again in which case this would leap, so as a pure punt I'm happy to risk a few bucks
Today must mark a new low in the Efficient Market Hypothesis economic theory !
A single trade for 88 pence has caused the "bid" to be remarked from 1.35p down to 1.10p ... an 18.5% drop !!!
So for the DC supporters, who speak to him daily and monitor the TicketMaster KPOP seating plans
... is Madrid "nearly sold out" or "at 50%" ... it can't be both !
I hope the webinar provides some real guidance, but I'm not holding my breath
Hughes - I'm with you on this one. DC is a devious little S**t.
But my guess is that he'll make the announcement that he has magnanimously agreed to replace Jason Lee funding with his own funding on the same terms ... and with the 10day vwap from now to 3rd July being 1.35p, he will get a further 36mm shares for £500k, taking his personal holding to 29.99% ... oh and Ranjit has also agreed to provide £150k funding to get a further 11m shares !
Problem with AIM companies like this, is the only way you can possibly get out of your accumulating losses is to continually average down and hope the company turns around instead of going bust ... I've had a few big wins this way, but also several painful losses
The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at Langham Court Hotel, 31-35 Langham Street, London W1W 6BU, United Kingdom on Thursday 22 June 2023 at 11.00am.
It's a pity there wasn't a Q1 update in Mid May ... I suspect the lack of announcement has caused the downward drift.
However if production has increased as expected and talked about in early May and knowing that gold has averaged around $1950 so far this year, we really should be looking at 2023 profit not far off the current market cap !!!
I still see fair value somewhere around 275p on current 2023 forecast
I'm also down 95% on this p.o.s ... but we were all warned almost 200 years ago by Mark Twain that a "gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it" .... KAT CEO fits the bill perfectly !
Gerald - hard to know if you're just joking or for real.
If you have really just bought then of the roughly 7.60p per share you paid today, you're going to be given 6.02p right back within a couple of weeks. Your remaining 1.6p "share" is going to be converted into something called a DCU which is an unlisted instrument, you won't be able to sell it on any exchange but you may (or may not) get upto six payments of about 1p every six months over the next 3 years. Hope you like what you've bought !!!
I think it is self evident that you will still receive the 6.02p dividend on the 22nd June if you buy today.
Why do I say this, simply because every single Market Maker in London would have to be stupid if they were offering to buy these shares at 7.5p NOT 1p if all they are entitled to is the prospect of maybe getting 6.48p sometime over the next 3yrs and NOTHING else
50% gap now between Card and Moonpig mkt cap and yet Card has higher revenue ; higher profit and faster growth
Efficient Market Hypothesis HaHa !
For those who are super backers of DC and this stock, I'd just like to say I'm heavily invested (and underwater) and a lth from early 2019. I top sliced a bit in the 8-10p range and have subsequently re-invested to get my average down. I'll get out of this alive at around 3.75-4p so I really do want it to succeed ... and I see some potential.
However, again, for those who think Kpop will make millions for us ... I have three questions for you
i) why haven't any firm financial figures from the events that have already taken place been published if they're so good
ii) why have several 2023 events been delayed / postponed if they're such moneyspinners
iii) most importantly ... why can't Jason Lee do everything that DC / LVCG do in Korea independently, with I suspect much better local knowledge and contacts in the Kpop space
It's a nice note to see ... but it doesn't seemed to have grabbed the attention of many actual investors.
I'm also not convinced it's really that "conservative"
I'm glad to see they show Admin Expenses growing 20% per annum, that's one thing we can we fairly confident will rise with DC involved. But getting to 2025 Op Inc of 6.1m with 5.2m Admin expense, seems to suggest to me they're going to need 18mm revenue whilst maintaining 60%+ gross margins !!! I'd suggest that from last reported 2.67m Revenue that's quite a stretch. Maybe 2022 will come in around 5-6m; then 9m 2023 ; 13m 2024 and 18m 2025 requires about 50% growth rate.
I wouldn't call that conservative given DC's wheeler/ dealer track record
TerryMC1 - I appreciate your negativity and understand your concerns that things could get a lot worse in SA and coal price could fall further, although I think too much negativity is already priced in.
But accepting the above, this company has negligible debt and a cash balance greater than mkt cap. The BoD could literally hand-over the entire $1bn operation to the SA gov't or the employees and leave the country and they would have sufficient funds to repay every shareholder about 750p ... why in those circumstances would a 'rational' market keep pricing this down ?
Even with current coal price lasting throughout the rest of 2023 and Transnet issues, TGA would likely generate revenue and earnings comparable to 2021 this year. That still puts the company on a p/e of 2 with an awful lot of negatives thrown in. Yes it is possible for things to get worse, but also possible for things to get much, much better ... and don't forget we now have a mine in Oz !!!
Good spot to those who realised my calculations were for 10,000 shares ... a factor of 10x out !!!
Lots of talk on this BB but very little useful commentary.
Seems to me the situation is reasonably clear.
For every 1000 shares in HUR you own you could sell today and get £775 in your SIPP or ISA or other tax free wrapper.
... or you could wait a month and get £602 cash plus a DCU. So for £175 ish you get a certificate that will paid somewhere between Nil & £648 over the next 3yrs, maybe taxable at your marginal tax rate. So if you believe you'll get six s.a payments of £50 or more then no matter what yur tax rate is you'll be better off ... if you don't think this is going to happen sell out now. For my part I'm likely to leave things as they are and use this as another learning exercise. I'll take the £30k on my 1/2 million shares and leave around £7k on the table with the potential for it to 4-bag to £30k in 3yrs. Down £7k ; up £30k means I need to believe that PRAX think they have more than 30% chance of making $$$$ on this transaction. That's my logic atb.
Personally think this is a big over-reaction today. H2 is always much better than H1 for SHOE and parents are going to continue to need to buy kids new school shoes in August. I did feel a few months ago 250p was close to fair value, I don't think much as changed. I believe many PI's might have had trailing stop-losses triggered and others will have taken profits to get into more exciting prospects. I would expect this to reverse to 220p over the next few months and for now the share buybacks will be back at sub 200p
Tintin200 or 56 or whatever other # you go by ... have you ever actually spoken to DC and if so has anything he's actually said turned out to be truthful. We have had a stream of "touchy feely" RNS about all sorts of activity and investment in 2023, but most of them turn out to be deceptive and come to nothing. LVCG wait until the absolute last minute to publish reports that AIM guidelines permit ... we won't see final audited accounts for 2022 until 26th-30th June and we'll get a half year report on 28th/29th Sept. Otherwise nothing of value gets published. DC purports to only take about £150k as salary but hidden within admin expenses are probably £500k of travel and entertainment for he and the missus to jet around the world attending concerts and art galleries, sports events and festivals. It's a grand life with no accountability. If he had a good news story to tell we would have been given some indication of y/e 2022 revenue and maybe even profit ... instead the new CFO only lasted from November to Feb before deciding to quit. A lot of hype in Mar/Apr '22 took this into double digits and it could happen again, but DC has lost all credibility so the number capable of being sucked into the hype is ever diminishing ... which is sad because Bricklive was a great little business
Buster - looks like we're back on track !
I'm invested with a few "oily cowboys" as you put it .... not least Maris at HUR and Ciclitira at LVCG who amply demonstrate that the FCA is toothless as a regulator, that shareholders don't really own the company and that scheming BoD members can get away with murder. However I've never got this impression from Assaubayev's ... they just don't want to be diluted themselves by some "oily" VC or outsider. The annual report states the £3.5m was spent on "community" projects at the government's recommendation as a one-off ... greasing the wheels of greasy governments is unfortunately how business works in third world countries. I don't like it ethically but we have to live with it or invest elsewhere. I'm rather more interested in mining tonnage increasing from 527t to 760t in 2023 ... that could see us hit $100m revenue this year.
Onward and upward, the rewards of patiences are coming !
Surprised to see a 5% fall today. Results were as good as expected and no dividend also expected. Perhaps the statement that capex going to run around £24m for next few years has caused some to sell. However I still can't rationalise why this is trading below MOON. We have strong revenue and profit growth and plans to expand; MOON is stagnant and yet sp rises. One or other of these two stocks has to move 30p to bridge the price gap. I'm hoping we rise more than MOON falls and that we overtake them around the 125p mark !