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Uninformative spread 3.0 - 5.5 based on very low trading volume
We must patiently wait for real news, even though the price appears to have dropped alarmingly
Alfreddie - I certainly won't be apologising to DC ... LVCG is currently valued at £7m because of a core Lego business as well as a couple of potentially lucrative sidelines in KPop and E-sports (neither of which have yet shown any proven revenue generating potential). £5m of that $7m valuation is most certainly NOT for StartArt which DC has sold to us from his personal account. Now if it turns out that DC purchased 1000 Bored Ape NFTs @$500 each last summer and that is the $500k asset sitting in StartArt then I will eat all the humble pie imaginable .... but that ain't gonna happen ! More likely he purchased two last November at $250k each .... missing the NFT boat !
bangrak, if the penny has dropped among 'experts' it certainly hasn't yet dropped among fund managers !
Coal was range bound between $50-90 per tonne for a decade upto the beginning of 2021.
Anglo offloaded this is early '21 because it was marginally profitable and the ESG crowd were giving them grief for still investing in coal. Those of us who bought in last year have lucked into one of the most amazing turn-arounds in history.
But this still isn't on the radar of many fund managers. I seriously expect an annual dividend this year greater than my initial purchase price. The BoD have already told us we have £3 net profit per share from H1 earnings : Q1 ave price was around $180pt, Q2 around $300 and Q3 is already at $350 and the forward price is above $300 into 2023 ! It's not inconceivable we will show £8 per share profit this year. Now this clearly can't last indefinitely, but 3-5yrs is surely possible. How long can a dividend yield of 20% and p/e <2 last before a financial expert twigs !
Alfreddie, being negative on the BoD is not the same as being negative on the company prospects. This rose above 12p on the prospect of some good revenue from KPOP ... I think the revenue attributable to LVCG from this will be much less than expected because DC will have taken a cut for himself through one of his nebulous side ventures, but there will never-the-less be some benefit for us shareholders. The placing through Monecor or OvalX as he's now calling it will give 15m new shares to somebody ... maybe DC himself, maybe Miton to keep them sweet or maybe another of DC's buddies ... we'll probably never know. The purported purpose of the placing for capital raising is clearly a sick joke, this is merely a mechanism to get lots of new shares to DC for StartArt. I can't see any private investors taking up the broker option because they can buy shares for less already ... again this might be a mechanism for Miton / DC or one of his buddies to get extra shares, but I think it will just wither away. What DC fails to mention in the RNS is what his and Ranjit's shareholdings will be after the balance of the consideration has been settled in shares in June '23 !
At the moment the share register looks like this
DC 37m ; RM 6m ; Miton 19m ; Monecor 17m ; everybody else 105m = total 184m
in a year's time after we've paid for StartArt fully in shares
DC 77m ; RM 22m ; Miton 19m; Monecor / OvalX 32m ; everybody else 105-115m = total 255-265m
I'm going to guess that Miton are getting the placing shares and maybe the broker option shares so that they don't get diluted like the rest of us ... and hey presto DC has 29.9% holding with three friendly / related parties in RM / Monecor and Miton holding a further 30% so that everybody else has no say in any decisions !
But we already have a BoD that comprises DC and a few of his buddies as non-execs ... we're probably the only listed company ever to NOT have any of the CEO / CFO or COO on the Board.
Our collective share holding gets diluted from 57% to 40%, which conveniently means that if the market cap were to return to it's level when existing shares traded at 12p ; the enlarged share capital would equate to a price of 8p ... at which point the warrants kick-in to keep the insiders happy.
Given what we've seen these past 2 months I'll be happy to return to 8p within 12mths but with DC and cronies at the helm this will never reach 15-20p for the private investors !
A long term holder here, seeing this as a highly cash generative, sustainable and steady income producing company.
The price drop since the interim results in February has no basis in reality. I hope we get a trading update in Mid July like we have in previous years, when the BoD have first indication of full year outcome and they re-affirm £90m revenue and £7-10m net profit ... that should support a return to 225p share price !
Well hopefully this has been a lesson for some of the recent contributors to this BB who were full of praise for DC and doubted some of us older investors who voiced concerns about his behaviour. I've considered StartArt a joke from day one and cannot believe he is able to simply name the price at which he wishes to "sell" his stake to us without any consultation ... but that is our the stock market and BoD's work. The only good thing to come out of this fiasco is that DC has now increased his own holding in LVCG quite considerably at both 6p and presumably 4p (via the accelerated placing to insiders.
I for my part have increased my holding by 30% today at below 4p .... I still believe there is a prospect for some good returns here, but we must all be suspicious of DC antics. I'd love to know what the Fund Managers at Miton have to say about this !
Yes - I wonder if any company has ever paid out more in it's first annual dividend than it's market cap !
It might not be a case of illogical - rather lack of volume !
If 99% of shareholders are unwilling to sell, then the odd person caving will set the share price.
What I'd really like to know is who actually owns this stock.
I use 4Traders to get an accurate picture of major shareholders on most stocks but for this I just get confusion.
We know DC has about 20% and Monecor a further 10%, but according to 4Traders the free float is only 50% of total stock and nobody has above a 3% reportable holding ... not even HL or one of the other platforms for private investors.
The small market cap means next to no fund managers will hold, unless they can get an insider deal done with DC to take a significant stake, which I doubt he's willing to do because it would limit his ability to treat the company as his personal piggybank. Only hard figures for 2022 will change the perception - but I'm willing to wait on that happening
Q2 '22 average coal price considerably higher than Q1 '22 which itself was a record high
... Monthly Futures all the way through 2022 are now in the $300's
... plenty more juice in this tank !
Well the results largely confirm what those of us who are overweight this stock already know.
This is a gold producer (not just a speculative hole in the ground explorer) which is now capable of generating consistent profits and yet trading on a p/e below 2 ! IMHO A doubling of the sp could easily happen with no further news !
The new information seems to be that Assaubayev's would rather slow the rate of increase in future production than dilute their shareholding or take on overbearing debt burden. That almost sounds prudent and fiscally responsible, terms you rarely hear these days from anybody let alone BoD of mining companies. I'll be happy with 15% increase in production and flatlining profit (if gold reverts to $1700 as they are using for budget calculations) ... or 25% increase in profits if gold goes back towards $2000. I've top-sliced this a few times and then bought back at lower prices. Best price I ever achieved was £2.50, think I'll be getting that again before too long !
This BB has deteriorated into a slanging match which is a shame. SimpleInvestor either you're incredibly naive or just up for an argument for argument's sake - I think the latter. We in the UK have basically the same rights to free speech as the US, we just use a legal system of precedent to form our Judicial Framework rather than a doctrinaire Bill of Rights (which the US anyway based almost entirely on the UK one of the same name from 1689)
However getting back to HUR share price, as I've commented earlier this month I find the fall from 11p to 7p baffling based on known facts about company performance. As for the past two days this is bizarre if it is anything other than manipulation. To drop from 7p to 6.3p to 5.75p after a good RNS update was published is strange to say the least.
But I do fear some BoD sheenanigans again - the investigation might have not found evidence of failings by Maris and Co but they have certainly failed in my eyes as a shareholder ... and I wouldn't trust them to try something else to disadvantage small PI's for their own gain and that of a few selected insiders. That is how business works, whether we like it or not.
So what could be happening ? My fear is this price drop was manipulated so that the BoD can announce that the Bondholders are being paid off via the issuance of 1bn new shares at 7.5p (20% above the closing price on 20th June) to make it look like they're not simply diluting us at what we all know is an undervalued price. My bigger fear is they then also announce another 1bn share issuance via an accelerated bookbuild to a few preferred insiders, also at this 20% above market price under the pretense that they will used the money raised as well as cash saved from the bond repayment to accelerate their capital expenditure and exploration program, thereby avoiding having to pay any Windfall Tax.
But in reality all they have really done is dilute the small shareholders like us by 60% !
I saw this stock mentionned on another BB I keep tabs on and decided to do a little research. As a result I've just bought in here. I think the lack of formal results showing that this is a mid level producer now means that it is still undervalued.
I think there is about 60% upside just based on the low end estimates for 2022 and with no further exploration finds.
It seems to me that the gold stream and borrowings from AFC can be easily serviced with current production and that AFC as major shareholder will want to see this company grow and succeed. Looking forward to hitting new sp highs quite soon
Good to see a range on "thoughtful" views on this BB - on so many there is just a stream on inane rants.
I do believe this is seriously undervalued, but I do acknowledge the high country risk in S.Africa ... although with Trump's mob potentially fighting to overcome a legitimate democratic election result in USA ... where isn't there country risk now !
I also agree with GamblingAddict that the price of coal is way too high. In a post about a year ago I gave my explanation why Anglo offloaded this at such a low price ... they had been nursing losses for years when coal was stuck in the $60-80 range. Given how poorly mining company management control costs (and that applies to just about every miner - gold, oil, coal) we would struggle if coal reverted to $125, which it could do within 1-2yr ! But a p/e below 2 without accounting gerrymandering and throwing off the cash that this does, really cannot be ignored. I'd probably resume top-slicing again around £15.
pop31 - i think you'll find it's £3 eps for these six months (rand to GBP is around 20).
Even so p/e ratio of 2 seems way too cheap.
I'm exceptionally fortunate to have an average below £2.50 here and have top sliced to cover my entire original cost - but even I have decided to buy back a few hundred shares that I sold a month ago higher, because I feel £11.50 must surely be a floor price !
Crystal Amber announced that they would be selling all of their holdings over a 2yr period last December after they lost a "continuation vote" at their AGM by 49.6 % to 50.4%. The HUR share price at the time was below 4p and they don't appear to have sold out when it rose to 11p+ ... so I suspect they won't be forced into a "fire-sale liquidation".
Their desire is to maximise the returns to their own shareholders through these sales, so I'm happy to have them onboard.
For all I know they might use their 28% voting weight to insist that all surplus cash earned over the next 18mths is returned to shareholders as special dividends and NOT re-invested in a future which they won't be participating in and which will involve speculative drilling for new oil ... or perhaps they have another vote and decide to "continue" in business as an active hedge fund again. I just don't know, but if HUR is considerably undervalued (and I think it is) then should CRS get to a point where they need to sell then we should expect to have multiple buyers competing to acquire this asset, bidding each other UP
Like Mirasol I expect news of the lifting around 18th/19th so end of next week or two weeks today.
Why we have dropped so much since the 19th May update is really hard to fathom, unless the BoD are hiding some terrible news, which has been leaked to a few priviledged insider II's. Rationally we should be hearing about a 3rd lifting of 500+Mbbls generating revenue >$60m ... so already $160mm of revenue in 2022 ... which should be doubled even if they only accomplish three more liftings in the next seven months. Free cash must now be in excess of $50pbbl so just those three liftings have generated enough cash to repay the Convertibles.
So Arden was valued at £10m at the time of the offer, which I thought undervalued the company. Now INCE + Arden only worth £14m. Even if half the staff quit for pastures new, this should be valued more highly. But I do suspect that Biles and Co are figuring out a way to take it private and shaft the small PI shareholders. Problem for them is ... who will continue to use their "professional" services if they demonstrate that they are simple crooks !
The most impressive part of the RNS to me was not the announcement itself but rather that Alan Aubrey will be subscribing for 200mm shares at the placement price from January. That's putting some skin in the game, which makes me hope he will act on behalf of shareholders. I got taken for about 10k on the insider deal in Jan, but decided to put a few quid back in last week ... no reason this couldn't return to being a "penny share" !
Ark87 and all - if you're old enough to know better - then you will be well aware that the more outlandish the claim by HF managers the better. If they guess it right they are lauded as geniuses, if they get it wrong everybody conveniently forgets the drivel they speak. Witness Goldman Sachs 2020 predictions for the year ... by Mid Feb 10 out of 11 were so far off the mark that nothing was ever said again. As for this Pierre Andurand - a very successful hedgefund manager - that Ark87 quotes, well his current fund is mimicking his previoous one, a couple of years of fantastic growth then shots down in flames and quietly closed down .... that was the fate of BlueGold in 2011 when it was one of the worst performing funds on the planet.
However I will say this ... oil prices fluctuate far more than oil usage ... and even the idiots in OPEC are starting to cotton on.
Added to which the "green brigade" is making their lives easier by deterring Western investment in still critical fuel sources.
If you are OPEC Cartel members and have a choice between selling 90m b.p.d @ $100 or 110m b.p.d @ $40 it shouldn't be a difficult choice. Especially when US shale oil isn't going to fill the deficit anymore. However with oil at $110 and Russian supplies not being fully utilised, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Putin going to Xi or Modi and saying "psst want an extra 1m b.p.d at $90 payable in Roubles" is going to i) find a willing buyer and ii) keep some cap on prices. Frankly if oil goes above $150 and petrol at the pumps above $5 p.g for Yanks then even Biden will be taking Putin's behind the scenes calls !
As Darola is correct in stating and understanding - this is all about how DC behaves.
I had hoped that with a couple of II's buying in here, we might get some better management discipline, but we could equally get some mgmt collusion. Just as DC arbitrarily assigned a value to St.Art and had LVCG pay ¢1m for 16% stake he could equally do the opposite with K.flex ... he could arbitrarily decide that 50% of LVCG interest in the venture will be sold to him personally to cover assorted nebulous consultancy expenses.... or he might decide that he and his German partner have created a new company which will be taking 90% of the streaming rights and not LVCG.
Darola should have said "Much of the 'institutional' market is once bitten twice shy here - only the gullible private investors are hoping for some honest and equitable behaviour from the CEO"