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For the past couple of years after the attempt by Maris to destroy the company we have had regular monthly updates.
But we've had silence in Sept / Oct so far ... this must be spooking the market.
However if I take the "worst" case scenario that they only get a 5th cargo sold in 2022, we're still going to see higher revenue than from 2021 seven cargo's and much higher profits ... even in that scenario we're still trading on a p/e around 4.
The downward drift for much of this year is just crazy, double figure sp is barely fair value imho
The reduction in share price in 2022 is truly depressing, but I have seen nothing in the business to make me believe that we won't get a further 235p of dividends in 2023 in relation to 2022 earnings. I can live with the 50% catipal reduction if I'm going to be earning 20% plus dividend yield until a few Fund Managers figure out how crazy this is !
pop31 - the share price dropped on the "ex-div" date it won't drop again on the "payment" date
.... that date is an irrelevant date for pricing purposes.
However if many shareholders have this in brokerage accounts with automatic DRIP (dividend re-investment programs). Then since the div is 20% of share price there will be huge buying taking place on Monday which should push the price up
Crawshaw - you're quite correct.
However I believe in not having all my eggs in one basket.
I'm made six-fold so far on my original investment in TGA and have crystallised about 1/3rd
... yes I would have made more by holding on, but I'm also reminded of EUA, I ten-bagged on that one and sold out fully between 25-40p ... now it's around 5p. I don't expect TGA to slide radically but I do think £20 is around fair value, so when I see 20% upside and the ability to free up some cash to chase 100%+ upside, I'm happy. Nobody is going to get every decision spot on and I've made some howlers, but I'm happy with the side of my TGA holding relative to my total portfolio
Edward - I appreciate you mentioning this stock on the TGA BB - I've just done a bit of quick research and decided to crystalise a little of my profits of TGA and switch a few grand into BISI. I need to research more thoroughly, but on the surface BISI is currently mining about 1/15th the coal of TGA but the market cap is 1/100th .... and I thought TGA still had some room to grow as well as to pay extraordinary dividends
Tintin, you seem to be holding a discussion with yourself about "major transactions" on this BB and ramping that this must be positive. So here's a possible negative transaction for you, perfectly in keeping with DC's persona.
.... he announces Friday that in lieu of cash / stock payment for StartArt he and Raj will instead be partitioning off BrickLive and KPOPFlex into a separate entity which they will now "re-own" 100% and we will be left with 224m NFTs of his Middle Finger as the assets of StartArt, one for each shareholder. With the StartArt coup, DC is extracting more from LVCG than he has put in ... so he's got a free ride on a company which he seems to debase regularly. I just hope that Miton have some sway with their stake to help protect us small shareholders from his most egregiously crooked actions
ThereSheGoes - suggest you name your "very large accountancy firm" and source if it really exists.
DC wasn't prepared to name who supposedly "independently valued" StartArt at £5m .... but he was only too willing to drop the price by £1m when some concern was raised by genuine shareholders.
LVCG could easily go back to double figures ... or go bankrupt ; treble your money from here or nothing !
So provided you think there is less than 50:50 chance DC is a complete charlatan, it's still a worthwhile punt ... but that doesn't mean I have any faith in DC's competence as a CEO
Anybody have any idea why no RNS have been added to this site since April ?
Pop - where your analysis is very simplistic is in stating that Europe will go green. Even if the Ukraine War ended within a month I don't think EU will return to using Russian Gas ... and Russia is set up to pump gas to Europe not China & India, so a large amount of their capacity will stay off market for a prolonged period ... and it takes a prolonged period to bring new sources of energy online. So fossil fuels will remain in use for longer. Also the Green brigade might start to come round to accepting that sourcing fossil fuels from countries / companies that deploy some environmental standards is far better for the planet than outsourcing to China etc. Finally when Americans/Europeans don't get their air conditioning in the Summer or heaters in the Winter they'll put comfort and cost ahead of "Greenery"
I think we'll see a repeat of last year with the share price rising rapidly into the Q4 update.
With net profit for 2022 north of £150m this really needs to get valued more highly.
The long bond rates from Covid hysteria were the true anomalies at sub 2%. From 1980 to 2010 the rates dropped from 10% to 4% as governments used increasing amounts of deficit spending to keep the chimera of growth going and needed ever lower rates to provide affordable financing. That overall theme hasn't changed so I see long bond rates stabilising between 2.5 - 4% for the next decade. The US Gov't can't afford to pay higher on it's deficit. Also the USA is much more "socialist" than it likes to let on ... especially those Trump supporting public sector employees like the Police & Firemen whose pension DB entitlements run close to 100% of base salary and would make European Socialists cry if only they knew. Trump & Biden both used the cover of Covid Funny Money to shore up State & Local Gov't finances for another few years but this Ponzi scheme will pop ... and when it does gold will have it's day
We live in ever stranger times, when following trends is the only thing Fund Managers know and quick profits on meme stocks is all private investors are after. I did a bit of top-slicing both here and in THS last Summer and have sat and watched this slide as PGM prices have retraced. However at some point rationality must return. We already know FY results will be $60m net profit on $150m revenue ... soon or later a few buyers will notice that a p/e below 4 is ridiculously undervalued.
I'll resume top slicing around 125-135p ... hopefully this side of Xmas !
We're basically back at the low we hit in Mar '20 as Covid was freaking everybody and NO homes could be sold, because nobody was allowed outside. This is getting laughable, no matter how much you think we'll have a recession. Long bond rates which dictate mortgages simply can't rise much above 4%, because the Gov't won't be able to service it's own debt. That is the main driver for the housing market - stopping the UK Gov't from going bankrupt. So assuming you want a risky return 2-3% above 10-30yr Govvies then you should look for a dependable stock which can trade on a p/e around 15. Now imagine PSN selling 30-50% fewer homes and we still make £500m net profit so mkt cap should be £7bn. Can we continue to pay 235p dividends : No ; should we be trading above 2000p and paying 100p div : YES. I've been invested since Mar 2018 at an average of 2750p, so this Covid period has been hugely disappointing, but in that time my DRIP has added almost 50% to my initial share holding ... and I can't see much downside now. Five years of 'only' £500m net profit ; 'only' £1 div and 'only' reversion to mkt cap of £7bn is hardly a disaster for us shareholders and there's probably 95% chance things will turn out much better. I'll stick with my housebuilders for solidity and use miners (oil/coal/gold) for my risky returns
Drop of 20%+ in one week on no news is indeed not logical - unless some insiders have been alerted to bad news, which I think unlikely unless SHOE haven't been able to get hold of shipments to sell, but that would contradict the announcement at end of July. With schools restarting and this being the busy season for them, I would really expect some bumper results.
Possibly a few are selling to lock in profits having been spooked by the continued fall ... but I'm looking for £2 with the early Oct full year update !
With the benefit of hindsight - the Regal acquisition was an expansion too far.
Yes this company was valued at £2bn, but in reality that was at best 10x multiplier on a net profit around £200m.
We now have $8bn debt and rising interest rates ... servicing this debt is going to cost well over our foreseeable net profit.
The company won't be allowed to go bust and destroy the movie industry and all the associated jobs ... but I can see a restructuring where the bondholders are asked to take 60-70% haircut and equity is wiped out.
This is a punt of mine that I'm now certain is a total loss ... £30k gambled over the past 12 mths is now <2k so barely worth selling. Luckily I've got TGA to compensate !
I'm quite confident it will 'dip' around 300p on 9/22 ... ex-div date ... question is how much it rises first.
ho55 - I agree with your sentiment that this is lousy communication and dilution is bad for us PI's but I still feel the underlying business is profitable. Not really sure that £3mm quid fundraising on a project supposed to generate £592m NPV is necessary, but if PG wants a bigger stake and it gets another insider a 10%+ holding then I'm willing to buyback with some of my profits from last year's top-slicing. Just bought back 80k shares for half the price I sold them, so I'm happy.
My target was 18p on 300m total shares so I guess I reset my expectations at 15p on 360mm
pop31, the fundamental reason that MM's haven't been buying this through the roof as you put it ... is that they are now guided more by ESG principals than generating returns for their investors. So, many, many MM's won't be allowed to buy TGA ... add to that Transnet issues and general S.Africa political situation and you have reason to pause. So if you've been in this for a while and have multi-bagged you might think 1500p is a good time to take some profits. Even if you bought at previous peak price around 1350p in Apr-Jun you will have made 10% profit quickly... and if you're a nervous newbie dropping back 10% this past week or so, might have caused you to quit. All, very short term, sources of downward price pressure ... but the economics of this company do suggest further upward movement when "real" results get published.
Unless of course a few insiders know something we don't ahead of results !!!
I'd certainly recommend top-slicing to lock in some profits if you feel over-exposed here ... but I think there is still 20% upside potential short term. Also if your average is below £1 then you're likely to be looking at a 10% ++ dividend yield on your original investment for the foreseeable future. So where could you find better ?
Well if you're purely in for a punt you could research these and pick the one you like best (I hold all and feel all are heavily under-rated) I3E ; ALTN ; INCE & LVCG ... very different industries but each could double overnight with the right RNS !
It is amazing that this sits around 100p ... I can't see any reason for it not to re-test highs around 175p ... just based on existing 2022 revenue and profits. Even if profitability dropped to around $100m you're still looking at a very cheap company paying a healthy dividend, near debt free which on a multiple of 8-10 should be worth much closer to £1bn mkt cap