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Ark87 and all - if you're old enough to know better - then you will be well aware that the more outlandish the claim by HF managers the better. If they guess it right they are lauded as geniuses, if they get it wrong everybody conveniently forgets the drivel they speak. Witness Goldman Sachs 2020 predictions for the year ... by Mid Feb 10 out of 11 were so far off the mark that nothing was ever said again. As for this Pierre Andurand - a very successful hedgefund manager - that Ark87 quotes, well his current fund is mimicking his previoous one, a couple of years of fantastic growth then shots down in flames and quietly closed down .... that was the fate of BlueGold in 2011 when it was one of the worst performing funds on the planet.
However I will say this ... oil prices fluctuate far more than oil usage ... and even the idiots in OPEC are starting to cotton on.
Added to which the "green brigade" is making their lives easier by deterring Western investment in still critical fuel sources.
If you are OPEC Cartel members and have a choice between selling 90m b.p.d @ $100 or 110m b.p.d @ $40 it shouldn't be a difficult choice. Especially when US shale oil isn't going to fill the deficit anymore. However with oil at $110 and Russian supplies not being fully utilised, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Putin going to Xi or Modi and saying "psst want an extra 1m b.p.d at $90 payable in Roubles" is going to i) find a willing buyer and ii) keep some cap on prices. Frankly if oil goes above $150 and petrol at the pumps above $5 p.g for Yanks then even Biden will be taking Putin's behind the scenes calls !
As Darola is correct in stating and understanding - this is all about how DC behaves.
I had hoped that with a couple of II's buying in here, we might get some better management discipline, but we could equally get some mgmt collusion. Just as DC arbitrarily assigned a value to St.Art and had LVCG pay ¢1m for 16% stake he could equally do the opposite with K.flex ... he could arbitrarily decide that 50% of LVCG interest in the venture will be sold to him personally to cover assorted nebulous consultancy expenses.... or he might decide that he and his German partner have created a new company which will be taking 90% of the streaming rights and not LVCG.
Darola should have said "Much of the 'institutional' market is once bitten twice shy here - only the gullible private investors are hoping for some honest and equitable behaviour from the CEO"
MrG - I think you're missing the size of the physical card market.
Forget about your 7000 Facebook friends and instead concentrate on Mum / Dad / 2 kids / 3 living Grandparents and a Dog.
That family is going to give / receive physical cards. Do some simple Math and just the handful of recognised card giving days means that the "family" UK market alone is for about 500m - 1bn cards @ £3-5 each that's a £1.5bn to £5bn market and CARD is a major player. Add in the spurning of social media effect and we could even see a renaissance in giving.
My wife's a bit younger than me but the eldest of three siblings in her family ... her sisters each have 3 kids and because they've all been given every conceivable toy / game / present imaginable and because iphones / Xboxes etc cost way more than we're going to give as presents to nieces / nephews ... the obvious present is a crisp bank note in a card !!!!
So that's another 20 cards per year my wife alone sends. I think the fundamentals are solid here ! CARD is vying to be my #1 holding in my SIPPs
We don't have a clear history of the level of communication this BoD intends to give.
But we do know that interims were published in Mid Aug and finals in Mid Feb, so if the BoD does decide to provide a Q1 update it should be coming within the next week ... and I for one would really like to see the announcement that Q1 revenue is 1bn and net profit 250m ... share price could rise above £30 !
This is already a multi-bagger for me, but could soon overtake EUA as my best return ever.
I was lucky enough to get into EUA at 2.5p (missed the 0.6p by a month !) and top sliced my way to an overall 8-bagger before I close out. Here I bought below 250p and have top sliced 1/3rd crystalising 150% profit but still expect to double my money within the next few months. We made our profits in H2 last year when coal averaged around $150p.ton; Q1 has averaged around $250p.t and Q2 is shaping up to be around $300p.t. The profit margins at the moment are simply astronomical. We could make our current market cap in profit in 2022 if coal stays around the $350-400 mark for the remainder of the year. Truly astronomical !
We should be getting 2021 FY results any day now.
Looking back at that Sept '21 presentation I think they should show Revenue $50m ; PBT $15m.
They should also announce that 2022 production is estimated at 36-40k oz.
But the million dollar question is where is the projected $62.9m Capex in '22 and $42.7m in '23 coming from ?
If they can make any credible announcement on that front then this rockets.
I'd love to hear something like this ...
"Today we have issued 5mm new shares to Freedom Finance for gross proceeds of $7.5m. In addition Freedom Finance have extended a $75m line of credit to ALTN @ 10%. With this additional capital injection and funding secured we believe we can reach our target of 60k oz production by 2025 and then fund future growth to our 100k oz target organically."
Share price rises to 250p instantly ... FF get a paper profit of $7.5m plus $7.5m annual loan interest ... and the prospect of owning a 33% stake in a company well on its way to a $250m market cap. Wouldn't that be nice !
Always worth reading different opinions, especially when they have some thought behind them rather than name calling / sledging that goes on some of these bb's. I read through Simes posting history to try to understand his negativity and can see some merit, but do think he's missing just how much CARD sp has been crushed by Covid unjustly.
I think that just taking the FY figures recently projected and deducting the HY actuals you can see something like : Rev 240m ; EBITDA 45m ; Net Profit 15m for H2 ... when all stores open and online functioning at higher levels than pre Covid.
So for 2022 I can easily see 480m ; 90m and 30m respectively. That seems to suggest that growth to 600m by 2026 isn't unobtainable and margins might not be quite as good as a few years ago. However the sp gradually dropped from 200p to 160p as net profit reduced from 58m to 50m between 2018 and 2020. So I think a re-rate to 100p is pricing in a fairly negative assessment of the future prospects. If any of the expedited transition to online sales is maintained then the price should be higher ... and any semblance of Moonpig type valuation would add even more. I'd be very happy to guess that CARD & MOON converge in a couple of years at around 400m market cap ... and I'll happily stay invested here waiting for that result
I'm a long suffering ARDN holder and have seen the sp drop 2/3rd since I first purchased. However I averaged down aggressively in 2020 and so am actually sitting on a profit even at these deflated prices. I just wish they had managed to get this takeover completed before the financial year end, although perhaps Biles has deliberately delayed so he can show further growth in 2022. Combined he should be able to report Revenue of 110m and Net profit of 8mm.
He knows that a lot of professional services firms are bought out on around 1x revenue.
So with his 16% stake in the company I'm sure he'd like to sell out for £100m +
If he grows revenue 10% p.a for next 5yrs and gets to sell for £150m then he personally benefits by almost £10m and he can retire wealthy before he turns 60. In that context his £500k bonus isn't that exciting ... I think his interests are reasonably aligned with ours. I'm sticking with this stock for atleast a return to the price when the takeover was announced
Only when we get some accurate figures for Q1 attendances will we have a better idea whether CINE is going to survive & thrive. Q3 '21 was at 54% of 2019 ... and Q4 at 81% ... if we return to 85-90% of 2019 during 2022 then we should be able to make 100mm net profit and we're trading on a p/e below 5. It's a waiting game
Lawrence - i think you're quite correct in saying BoD has no desire to save shareholders ... other than themselves and some crony insiders .... this could easily go the same way as 2014 ... but without Hambro giving small PI's some option to heavily invest to save their stake. What gets me is why BoD don't simply forward sell the Gold to a new "royalty stream" customer ?
I'm sure that if they offered up a stream of just 1k oz p.m of gold from 1/1/23 to 1/1/28 somebody would pay $80-90m upfront into a UK bank account for 60k oz of gold spread over 5yrs and it would solve all the issues regarding payment of bond coupons etc.
This is just Transnet ratcheting up the pressure on their "customers" to help pay for the costs of extra private security.
It worked for them last year and they're assuming that TGA / Exxaro and others will do the same again.
If we move an extra 1mt when prices are $250 instead of $150p.t then we make an extra $100m profit.
Transnet are guessing our BoD would happily give up $20-30m to buy extra security
Seems to me we have achieved revenue well in excess of $175m so on target for over $700mm for 2022 ... which means net profit should easily beat $140m ... out this on a p/e of just eight and we should have a market cap closer to £800m
This is definitely a company where any shareholders can see that the BoD owe NO allegiance to the shareholders whatsoever and merely draw their salaries and take their stock options.
However as a long suffering and large loss holding investor I have to consider is there a future ?
... and at this price I have to conclude YES.
There is a very real risk of yet another placing to a group of preferred insiders ... but that would need to be with the collusion of several of the large holders .... and would need to be designed to wipe out everybody else
They'd need to issue 400mm shares at 2p to make it worthwhile !
On the flip side 15m revenue and 1m net profit with 20% annual growth is very much possible making this a p/e below 5
I've chased a few stocks all the way to zero, but equally I've averaged down sufficiently to turn 80-90% losses into good profits. Doubled my holding again today and got my average down from an original investment in 2020 @ 250p to below 20p. Hopefully this is a better than 50:50 bet on survival !
Coal Futures are still trading above $250 out to Feb '23.
So TGA could lock in a price 60% than 2021 average for the remainder of this year
... ALL of that would be pure profit vs last year
Only real question that needs answering is HOW the company intends to use all the cash it is generating
I first bought here in April 2019 at 57p.
The sp had sold off 20% and I thought it had good prospects for growth purely on Lego.
There were a total of 69mm shares in issue, market cap was £40m and DC owned a 40% stake.
I saw the potential for a nice value stock - growing revenue in double digits and paying a 5-6% yield.
For a couple of months things looked good (sp rose back above 70p) ... then growth faltered in late 2019.
I picked up my next tranche of shares at 15p ... and then Covid hit and we dropped to below 10p !
DC started to dabble in all sorts of other random stuff (Art / E-sports / NFTs and KPOP) but I continued to think that Lego installations would be a good market when eventually we came out of lockdown, so I doubled my holding at 5p in early 2021 but we kept going down, so I doubled it again below 4p getting my average below 6p and so I too turned a profit last week for the first time. However we now have 182mm shares in issue, DC has been diluted to around 20% and we're all talking about "streaming rights" for Korean pop music !!!
I can't decide if DC is a genius or an idiot ... but I do know that he wants to make himself money and at the moment he is well down on the last few years. Some consistent revenue streams ; sensible profit margins and a rational p/e ratio and this should easily return to being a £50m mkt cap company. Which suggests to me that we could get back to 25-30p share price.
But who knows what happens next week ; maybe DC announces that we have sold those "streaming rights" to Apple Music for £50m or that we've bought a piece of digital art from Beeple in exchange for issuing another 100m shares.
This really is a lottery ticket right now, but I believe DC will take whatever gambles he thinks are likely to return his personal stake to above £25mm in the shortest possible time ... enjoy the ride. For the first time in 3yrs I am !!!
Leem1 - the "rise is now plain stupid" only if you have no understanding of the business and current conditions
2022 revenue and profit could easily double on 2021 even if coal drops back to $200 p.t.
We would need to see coal being universally vilified again ... not likely to happen when people are experiencing power cuts and coal price to crash ... not likely when alternate energy supplies are scarce and increasing in cost
Compared with Arthur Scargill days, thermal coal is clean energy ... I see a steady rise from here, especially with dividends and / or buybacks to use the free cashflow
Even at current production I would expect the sp to be closer to 75p not sub 50p.
But so much depends on production at Coringa
... if they can give a target date to start mining and if it is as productive as Palito then sp doubles almost instantly
My guess is next week not this for the Q1 update. Don't really understand why this isn't rated more highly - probably the potential for them to get burned on the trading account. However if they keep churning out $100m profit per quarter on the underlying business flow and don't **** it away on the trading account then we should consistently get 5%+ dividends and sooner or later all the share buybacks have to start increasing the sp. This should be above 1500p and really hitting new post Covid highs every quarter the results are stable
Sharelad - it certainly does !
It would be really nice if in a couple of weeks they announced some Q1 earnings figures !
Most of the annual results for 2021 were from the final 6mths
... and coal prices have been much higher in Q1 '22 than H2 '21
It wouldn't surprise me if Q1 showed revenue of $1bn and profit of $350m ... just for the quarter !
Seems to me that POG is perfectly placed to use a "currency" (that has been a stable medium of exchange for thousands of years) to pay their debts which is acceptable to both the West and Russia ... and China / Africa / Latam and Mars for that matter ! My bigger concern is whether a repeat bondholder stitch up like 2015 is on the cards. This can't be ruled out, but I believe our shareholder base is much more diverse than those bad old days ... and the current BoD less keen to save their own skin at others expense - although I might well be wrong on that front !
How long before the suspension is lifted is anybody's guess.
But what isn't guesswork is the price of related stocks on 10th March when this was suspended
POG @ 2.75p ; POLY @ 150p and JRS @ 125p ... and on 18th Feb before this all kicked off
POG @ 16p ; POLY @ 1170p and JRS @ 680p
If the suspension was lifted tomorrow my guess is the price would be 125p by c.o.b
If POG / POLY & JRS all rise to 70% of 18th Feb prices then EVR would be around 325p, but EVR had already lost half its value from 1/1/22 by mid Feb so the markets were already pricing in some distress.
I think if Putin declares victory and withdraws and Zelensky acknowledges neutrality and business resumes then £4 by end of Q2 is near guaranteed