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I too remember the £20 days of 2018, my initial investment in February that year had doubled in six months.
I'm really surprised it has taken so long to get back to toward that level. Still the intervening period has allowed me to top slice and average down, so I shouldn't grumble. Even more so when you consider that in sterling terms the eps in last month's RNS is more dramatic $3.80 vs $3.06 equates to £3.17 vs £2.27 when you factor in the 2022 exchange rate and then there are the share buybacks. I do wonder what would happen if they re-listed in London.
... would we immediately jump to £25
Everything DC does stinks. I'm only staying invested because there is a small (getting smaller) chance that this share could spike and re-coup my losses. In the meantime I get to watch how toothless a regulator the FCA is and how much corruption is permitted by BoD members to the disadvantage of their shareholders.
For those thinking this latest 25% drop is a chance to average down ... it might be ... but I'm pretty sure much more likely is that Jason Lee will be re-assessing his commitment to purchase 25mm shares @3p before March '23.
This company is the plaything for a few nobodies and we're the suckers for thinking otherwise
This share has certainly not performed the way I had hoped over the years, but the 50%+ rise this past month is only the start of better times I'm sure. Hopefully we get a Q4 update this week which should state that revenue is over $60m and profit around the same as last year. Our mining will be slightly below the 650kt projected for the year, but still up on 2021 and hopefully Assaubayev will continue to predict 700-800kt for 2023 and on target for 1mt in 2024. On a p/e of <3 and projection to also double output within 24months we should see continued rising of the share price to levels not seen for a few years. To 3p and beyond !!! gla
I'm really surprised we didn't get mention of an interim dividend. I'm expecting Penny to announce 0.25-0.3p per share dividend which will certainly get a lot of focus and still leave plenty of cash for working capital in 2023.
Mark - you need to make your own decisions but here are a few "facts" for you to consider
- an offer for 7.7p was rejected by the BoD as too low
- we've subsequently been told 'multiple' new credible offers have been made
- we know that H1 Revenue was $160m and PaT was $67m
- we know that H2 Revenue was $151m (FY revenue $311m) and 2022 ave price was $97pb vs $67pb in 2021
I'd suggest those facts make it a no-brainer to buy at 7.4p ... but those of us who've been around this stock for a few years know that Maris is a conniving piece of work who is looking after No.1 only and has no concern for the small private investors. Thankfully Crystal Amber have held him in check to a large extent.
I have no idea what skullduggery is playing out behind the scenes, but my sense is
- that Maris is looking for a sale which will keep him on as CEO on $$$$
- that CA want out at a half decent level (atleast 10p)
- or else to be included in the stitch up of PI's
- that there is no regulatory oversight to prevent such a stitch-up occurring
If we ever get to see 2022 FY results we should have PaT > $100m and a cash balance almost equal to current market cap
Even if this field has limited future life and nothing further is developed there ought to be another $100m of profit available at current oil prices ... and then there is the tax loss, which could be worth a further $100m in the right hands.
Something stinks horribly here, but I feel there is 90-95% upside and only 5-10% downside so I'm keeping my overweight position running !
We're due a Q4 update any day now ... which I suspect is going to show a steady 8-9k oz production.
That will equate to 2022 revenue around $60m and profit above $20m.
That sort of consistency is what we've all been hoping for over the years.
It doesn't take a genius to figure that even on a p/e of 5 we should be around £80-100m market cap and that's without factoring in any increased production or continued rise in the gold price.
If gold breaks through $2k and stays there, or BoD project 40-60k oz for 2023 then we really should see a massive boost in share price on top of the 50% rise over the past 2-3mths ... I'm still targetting 250p before I top-slice
"Can you recommend another Company to me that has a prospect to double its share price within next three months? "
Stach - with the usual caveats about DYOR etc I have to plug Bisichi (BISI) ... I already have 10% of my "punting" SIPP invested in this S.African coal miner, having doubled my holding in the past month, but still think I should sell virtually everything else and go all in !!! I cannot understand how a company can trade on a p/e < 1 (yes I mean it ... they have already as good as announced that the 2022 results will show net profit greater than current market cap). It wouldn't be inconceivable (if the BoD haven't made some dreadful 'investment' decisions) for them to declare an FY dividend of 50% before the end of April
Real think that FY revenue of £450m and Net Profit of £40m ought to support a Mkt Cap of atleast £400m so I see continued rise to 120p without even considering the growth that still exists
Think we're starting to approach fair value here now. Just wish they had accelerated their share buyback scheme when we were still trading at 170-200p. Right now I'd rather they kept cash for another special dividend.
Quite amazing that only 12% of shareholders voted at the GM for the capital reduction ... 88% apathy or holdings by small private investors through online brokers who don't cast their votes !!!
However I do feel this will get approval later this week and then we'll get an FY update and then I suspect an interim dividend of 0.1p with an announcement that 50% of all future profits will either be paid as dividends or used for share buy backs. That's how I hope we'll see the sp bounce back to 2p
Spot RBCT coal price is now back where it was before the Ukraine invasion a year ago ...but this sp is still much higher.
Coal price has halved since August '22 so at these prices our net profit is down about 75-80%. Question is how much 2023 production was forward sold in Q3/Q4 last year. It's possible management have locked in a price above $250 p.t for the whole year in which case this drop is irrelevant, or they stayed fully unhedged in which case things could get worse. But FY results for 2022 will be incredible and will get the attention of private investors chasing a quick buck, who don't fully understand the pricing dynamics of this market. You can't report £40m+ annual profit and be valued at £25m so I'm expecting a spike regardless of where spot coal goes in the next month or two.
Spot RBCT coal price is now back where it was before the Ukraine invasion a year ago ...but our sp is still much higher.
Coal price has halved since August '22 so at these prices our net profit is down about 75-80%. Question is how much 2023 production was forward sold in Q3/Q4 last year. It's possible management have locked in a price above $250 p.t for the whole year in which case this drop is irrelevant, or they stayed fully unhedged in which case things could get worse. But FY results for 2022 will be incredible and will get the attention of private investors chasing a quick buck, who don't fully understand the pricing dynamics of this market. I'm expecting a spike regardless of where spot coal goes in the next month or two.
"99.56% for and 0.44% against capital reduction, thats one hell of a result and puts paid to the first set of conspiracy theories. Lets see whats next"
What I took from the GM vote was that only 29% of eligible shares voted ... so if CA attended the meeting, which I suspect they did then basically, they voted in favour and nobody else voted.
Which seems to indicate that if the BoD grant them their EGM then they just need same degree of apathy from the other three main shareholders to remove Maris etc.
So only question is whether Maris & Co can just blatantly ignore their biggest shareholder ... when they tried to disolve the company in 2021 and gift it to their cronies - CA were able to rebuff them, I'm hoping for an announcement tomorrow of an EGM in a week's time and the ousting of Maris by month-end
Vegas - can't criticise you for locking in some profits ... but can't help feeling you should have atleast waited until CARD mkt cap exceeded Moonpig ... should happen this month !
Well we could be in for an interest general meeting tomorrow
From MarketScreener, which I find is generally accurate the main HUR shareholders are :
Crystal Amber 29% ; Butterfield Bank (22%) ; Kerogen Capital 16% & Shanghai Pidong Dev Bank (SPDB) 16%
{if anybody knows otherwise please provide the latest holders}
Now Crystal Amber & Kerogen are both lth who want to get some return on their historically poor investment ; Butterfield is clearly a front for somebody who wants to use an offshore entity to stay anonymous and SPDB is state owned, so we can presume looking for access to cheap foreign natural resources. So if one or two of these side with CA then CA will get what they want from this meeting. Our votes are unimportant.
Question is whether a "sale" gets announced which CA agree to ... maybe SPDB is behind the 7.7p offer and they up it to 10-12p to get CA support ... or perhaps Kerogen join forces with CA and oust Maris and his cronies !!!
Whatever happens I don't see the sp staying at 8p on Thursday
Not sure what I'd prefer myself - an immediate payout of 10p+ or 6p returned over course of Q1 and a new sp of 2p which might rise fourfold over the remainder of 2023 ... I just hope Maris gets the boot
I'm hoping for profitability in 2023, but still fear that DC will play his tricks on us small shareholders and manipulate figures to his advantage. However he seems to have been willing in Q4 '22 to give Ranjit Murugason a chunk of equity to try to grow the NFT / StartArt business ; to sell a very large stake to Jason Lee (who will hold more equity than DC by end of Q1 '23) to drive KPop and employ bona fide CEO & CFO to run the day to day business.
I first bought in 2019 at 57p (more fool me) ... spent 2020 averaging down to 8p ... traded a bit in 2021 ; H1 '22 to get my average to 5p and have recently upped my holding significantly to get to 1mm shares below 4p.
I'm reasonably optimistic that once Jason has his full position bought in Q1 @ 3p then the share price will rise, but until we get some real numbers and forecasts this remains a pure gamblers punt ... good luck All
Beza - don't know why you feel you've missed the boat with TGA (sure it has risen from under £2) but it has 50% upside just to return to previous high and a near guaranteed £3 dividend coming this quarter. Since Aug '21 (when I first bought TGA) the sp has gone from £2.50 to £18 and back to £12 ; BISI has gone from 75p to £3.50 and back to £3 ... not so very different, but I do agree that on coal production basis, BISI is still relatively undervalued ... but it needs to pay a dividend to get the attention it deserves
From what I can see Jim North made £2.5mm in total comp in 2021 as interim CEO and has bought 80k shares (about £125k) this year ... so his "skin in the game" is 5% of his annual comp. I'm not going to let that guide my views ... maybe if he buys a million shares next week @£1.00 I'll have the conviction to follow suit
Past few years they have released a FY update about 12th Jan so I would expect something end of next week
.... and there is no wa it's going to be pretty. H2 production practically zero and Q4 sales from reserves about 1/4 usual level.
Add in a further impairment reserve and I think we'll show a big loss ... maybe designed to force Zhevago to sell at a huge discount. Either way I've sold down 80% of my position over the past couple of weeks, crystalising a loss, but hopeful that the price will drop back below 100p. But whether it's worth repurchasing is the tricky question, given we have no idea when / whether they will ever be able to sustain good level of production.
Tri-Connex was the most profitable component, but it wasn't showing rapid growth in H1 ... so I'm not too disappointed by this surprise announcement. Looks as though the market cap is now equal to the sale price, so we keep Tamdown for free.
We're likely to see about 150p per share returned to us next year and assuming the Balance Sheet breakdown in the interim results is fair then Tamdown in isolation will have net assets around £15-20m plus the £10m cash retained from the sale.
That should really give rise to a residual value of above 50p per share and a business generating about £100m annual revenue. If efficiency and sensible operating can give rise to just 3% net margin then we own a company valued at around £20m with £3m net profit and the prospect to grow as housebuilding inevitably recovers. In the current climate I'll take that