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https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/australias-newcrest-rejects-169-bln-bid-newmont-2023-02-15/
So heres a scenario...
NCM bids for Solgold...the share price soars, as investors anticipate a battle with Jiangxi, BHP (and others...)
So at the worst the price rises above 35p and NCM can at least get its money back...money that could be useful in defending itself against an unwanted bid, or...
The concept of the 'poison pill' defence is that the targeted company buys another company that the predator does not necessarily wish to own...
It also makes the target company significantly bigger, thereby inflating the potential cost to the predator.
Beneficial outcomes for NCM...?
1 It wards off unwanted interest from Newmont or
2 It fordces them to pay a much higher price (after all the Board is supposed to look after its shareholdewr interests...?)
£ It succeeds in acquiring Solgold, which surely was the whole point of taking a stake in the first place...remember they were in there first...
$ Or at the very least, another bidder is successful at a price very much higher than NCM paid for their stake...after all they decided 2 years ago to retain that stake as a 'strategic investment'...
Great Redknight a real deluded fantasy.
Why on earth would NCM bid for Solgold.
That's the most ridiculous post you have ever made and believe me that is really saying something.
At this stage in proceedings it's whatever gets you through the day I suppose.
Maybe day dreaming helps.
So Jezzoo...please share with us your experience of using a poison pill bid defence...or any bid defence for that matter...?
I've worked with both J P Morgan and Goildman Sachs on bid defence...at companies worth up to £850 million...
I apologise if you have rich experience in this area and will gladly defer to anyone les on this Board who does...
Cheers
Please Jezzoo let me answer Redknights question once I stop laughing. ????????????????.
Okay here goes. No I have no related experience, but if you say you do I don't believe you.
You don't carry out a poison pill defense by bidding for a company that has no revenue, no means of generating revenue in the near future and where there is no interest in a rival bid.
But I left the funniest bit till last.
NCM bids for a company that it has 10% in which is a minnow of a company compared to NCM and suddenly their share price increases to stop a takeover.
Sorry Redknight you may have convinced some on here that you have had this illustrious career on here.
But thinking like that would get you sacked even if you were CEO of the burger van sitting outside a pub on a cold wet Friday night.
RK, stick with the kiddies fiction!
Suits you better!
Interesting faces laughing hard translate into question marks on here. Pity.
Squabbles aside the SP is bouncing today, which is nice to see! Decks cleared, onwards and upwards!
Shorters will be scrambling to close :-)
Cant believe that I am about to say this, but Quady I agree with you!
That RK post is one of his more daft ideas. To think that NC are giving much consideration to its stake in Solgold is quite preposterous. They have given no clue that they are thinking about a poison pill, but a lot of clues about getting NM to just upping the bid a bit and they will go quietly. Its a very strange attitude by NC but when you have so little support from your institutional investors, you really dont have much future. They are definitely sellers of assets, not buyers.
There is a lot more chance of NC selling its stake to BHP and they launch a bid, though I wouldnt rate that highly either. IMO!
Thank you Jerry, although I doubt NCM will sell its stake in Solgold, more likely to look to acquiring more if another fund raise takes place next year.
Quady, my guess is that there is about a 50% chance of them selling, versus about a 10% chance of them buying. But its just a guess. NC dont have much of a future, and if they escape NMs clutches they will be selling assets imo.
This poison pill nonsense is more dungeons and dragons fantasy ….. absolute garbage
Redknight:
I think the response you've had so far is adequate without me adding to it.
Have a nice day.
get a hobby rk1 - honestly, for you own sake
All I've had is opinion that my idea is nonsense...
Its a talking point, but nobody with bid defence experience has responded...
And why is my suggestion any more nonsensical than some of the things that people like Quady keep banging on...?
"Quady, my guess is that there is about a 50% chance of them selling, versus about a 10% chance of them buying."
"To think that NC are giving much consideration to its stake in Solgold is quite preposterous. They have given no clue that they are thinking about a poison pill..."
You have absolutely no clue whatsoever what NCM is thinking...
"this latest RNS is just a case of delaying the inevitable drop down to circa 5p at which point a 20p per share takeover by 1 of the 3 main interested parties will look fantastic..."
"
Aah...sire...do you remember making this nonsensical statement...?
"RK1 we are selling the CGP shares, the RNS specifically metions 155m investment shares."
Not sure how someone else misreading something and susbequently correcting their own error in anyway justifies your dilusion?
Yep and there it's at 15:10...code 1 trade lol!!:):)
Personally, I think we have just been taken for a ride, big and small PIs. As it stands, any narrative we choose to believe is largely subjective and sadly we can just hope that our interest is aligned with the other parties selling rather than those possibly trying to buy us cheap. End of.
Poison pill defences aren't allowed in the UK under the takeover code. As they allow the board of the company to frustrate an offer without it being put to shareholders.
Also it involves issuing more shares to existing shareholders.
Looks like NM will up their offer and NCM will be no more. NM will then be holding 10% of Solg... This just feels like any competitive tension as between NCM and BHP for Solg is now gone, can't see NCM bidding for Solg now and could see NM dumping the stake as non-core/low priority and without really having to worry about taking a loss on it since it would have been acquired through the takeover and not by them directly.
So good job we have Jiangxi onboard now to crank up the tension with BHP again!
rcgl2,
Newmont are no fools and no real fans of BHP so you never know.... they might just offload the 10% SOLG stake (should they acquire NCM) to the chinese. Or... in a back scratching exercise (I'm sure there are many between BHP and NM) they could sell BHP the 10% stake. Now just imagine that... just when SOLG were keen to see BHP diluted... BHP could end up with an even greater stake than they had before.
Much depends on Newmont/NCM deal and how they see non core assets. Certainly interesting to watch it unfold.
Fort, if you think much depends on the NCM/NM deal, when do you see a bid for solg arriving? Still this year, I assume?
I don't think much depends on the NCM/NM deal. Apart from the confirmed reality that NCM won't be buying SOLG. There was a time when a possible NCM v BHP fight was on the cards. But not likely now.
With Chinese influence building in Ecuador and major history breaking Trade deal expected soon... I think it's down to the Chinese and whether BHP or any other super major out there fancies taking them on.
Sorry Fort, you said 'Much depends on Newmont/NCM deal' and I read that as you saying 'much depends on Newmont/NCM deal', but now you say 'I don't think much depends on the NCM/NM deal.' I think this might be the source of confusion.
Takeover this year though, right? You've been certain of that previously and it's only late Feb.