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I didn't subscribe in the wrap.
Will average down a bit in next year's isa early doors as long as though dastardly Mms don't hike the price up first day and play with a spread as wide as Runley Road lills nickers
If the offer is oversubscribed is there any facility to issue more shares to soak up the excess. I recall PRD doing a placing last August via a book build aiming to raise £7 million which was oversubscribed and they ended up raising £10 million!!
Yes
Hello SOG. I enjoy your posts but have you maybe considered making them a little more succinct?? I sometimes have to shave twice between starting and finishing reading them. 🤣
At least if the WRAP is over-subscribed the BoD can use it as yardstick for any future raises as it'll indicate a level of support from punters.
I put in for 55,000 shares. Like you I think I’ll have to buy most from the market. I expect the WRAP to be 4 times or so over subscribed.
fingers crossed for you warty that you have had op today and all is well.
i know how you feel 4 yrs ago i fell off ladder in my kitchen and broke my leg /ankle in 7 places. now got rod and 11 screws in my leg./ ankle.
rehab was a ***** but on the positive side i now know when it's going to rain. it's like my ankle is a barometer.!!
good luck!!
elcap
Breprocitinib was discontinued or to be more precise passed on to Priovant.
Breprocitinib Tyk2 Jak1
We are Tyk2 Jak1.
Difference here of vast importance is selectivity over.
Breprocitinib Tyk2 Jak1 around equal or 50 50
We are around 80% Tyk2 20% Jak 1 with Jak 1 being 4 to 5 fold over Jak2 and Jak3.
Interaction with Jaks
Jak1 is Tyk 2 and Jak3
Jak2 is Tyk 2 and Jak2
Jak3 will only pair with Jak1
Selectivity is all important as very difficult to gain sufficient degree of selectivity
Tyk 2 as an allosteric route can be considered as specific ( minimal ie over a thousand times more selective over other jaks.
We are informed that Jak 2 can have adverse off target effects.
Ropsacitinib an inhibitor now in development is a Tyk2 Jak2 inhibitor aimed at Psoriasis.
Very odd!
Allosteric Tyk2 albeit with good safety effects is not the be all and end all as was made out to be.
The pseudo domain that regulates the active site.
Good from a marketing point of view, nothing marvelous in Psoriasis as so many companies think they can do better of which ours is one.
Regulation over and actual contact with active site although sounding similar are streets apart.
Regards to all LTH and those genuinely newly aboard.
I put in for 85k shares.
I think l am going to have to get most of them via open market.
Will see what happens.
Regards
I think the very short time frame and the modest amount to be be raised would have been a factor.
I've done my allocation through ii. I find them to be very efficient and on the ball.
I think it will be hugely oversubscribed and I hope it is as a vote of confidence and to create a floor for the SP.
A fair distribution would be to allocate as many people as possible a maximum allotment. A thousand pounds will gain you a nice 10000 shares.
I do wonder why so many of the large institutions are not enabling this offer to be utilised
If they did i think subscription would be way over - but as i have said i have several accounts and Lloyds wont do it - i believe Barclays too - so is this going to hinder ?
i think we will still be over subscribed however
There is certainly additional value with SDC-1802 being patented up in Autoimmune. Was interesting reading on why Brepocitinib TYK2/JAK1 failed its Lupus registration intent Phase 2 Unlucky for them and a bonus for SDC-180 (SAR20347) / SDC-1802 (SAR20351) https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/trecms/pdf/AD1087498.pdf
“Gline blamed the failure on high placebo response in the trial, according to a statement. Brepocitinib was tested in adult patients with moderate to severe active systemic lupus erythematosus. Efficacy was measured using a common scale for lupus called the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Responder Index change of 4 (SRI-4).
We saw some of the highest SRI-4 responder rates ever observed in a lupus study in the active arm of this trial, along with a favorable safety and tolerability profile,” Gline said in the Monday release. “Unfortunately, we also saw the highest placebo response rate observed in any significant SLE study, and as such it was not possible to truly assess the impact of the drug, or to establish sufficient differentiation from other therapies in lupus patients.”
------------------------------
I agree the finance situation has been abysmal but the science has been progressing, slower than ideal but we are very much on the cusp, I agree that the BOD were probably naively expecting 737 to deliver value earlier, but news should be coming on that front and MAD will finish shortly. As has been rightly said we are not a new molecule but we are 2nd generation with hopefully a significantly better safety profile, these results will be available this quarter and deal discussions can start. IMO this could result in a licence deal or TO. I feel the later is most likely given our low MCap, the open question in my mind is how much news we can release before that happens to drive the SP up and then achieve a decent multiple. Whether a TO or a licence we clearly though need multiple interested parties to get the best return, let's hope that there's 'a queue'. Anyway wishing SAR a far more positive new tax year than last. GLA
Hi Damion - I think the way they arranged the raise was for the following reasons
1. Allow the HNWs to get very cheap shares to take some of the sting out of their paper losses
2. Allow some of the BoD to show faith in the compound
3. Offer just £300k to punters simply to cover the loss of the RF drawdown
From what I've seen over the years is the BoD only raise enough cash to cover their short/mid term aims. The current dilution would be far greater if the raise had been effectively open-ended.
Presuming RF dump all their shares from next Friday through to the end of the following week, I have no idea what the sp will do as punters hoover up shares into the new tax year ISAs - will it rise or remain fairly static? The BoD perhaps hope with RF out of the picture the sp will return to a more representative level. If it does, then another raise later in the year will come with less dilution.
Unless a partner comes along prior to a P2a trial with an offer we can't refuse, I think the BoD would do well to start the P2a phase in order to give support to a hopefully increasing sp i.e. even the trolls can't deny that getting a drug that far isn't a remarkable achievement for 2 blokes in a shed.
I hope you lol are right and I get my money back, but I feel if there was the slightest chance of this realising that much money someone would take us out at these levels imo
Good afternoon Potnak,
800 million not out of the question for 1801, 1802 l .think would need trialling but interestingly also is the recently added patent protection for 1802 in immuno therapy.
1 to 2 billion for the lot later this year is again not out of the question.
All that from a company that has MC of just under 8 million.
Have they become aware of other Indications outside of immuno oncology that 1802 may prove to be of benefit?
737 we need news on and as such have not included this in any value whatsover.
News on 737 direction would open doors to takeover l think. All compounds would be know about including Aurora + FLT3 which has its solubility issue preventing it to be administered by the oral route.
First things first is the 300k raise.
Regards
A link to a very long text below with regards to why 90% of drugs fail.
Not being negative here, it us just that l believe we have most of these areas now covered. Indeed we have already experienced some of them.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9293739/
Seen this before or something very similar. This is, why I think we could be around 2 billion at the end of a successful 1801 P2 trial. Roughly made up of 800 million for each of the the TYK2 and 400 million for our share of 737. The above assumes outstanding data from all 3 compounds and a clear runway but even half that would be an amazing return for everyone here.
I'm totally with you sog - all being well an easy 50 bagger from here.
Very much undervalued Bobbler!
I put a value a while ago at 400 million at end of phase1 but people laugh and attempt to ridicule the idea.
Sits nicely in the table as where we are or will be if all goes well in this coming quarter.
The damage created by RF has been horrendous to say the least but it has not resulted in cessation of 1801 development or company closure forecast by some.
I am certain l will not get the amount of shares of the 300k raise as l would like.
Regards
Regards
Very good lengthy read Bobbler
Valuations
Pre clinic 88 million $ 57-119 million $
Phase1 399 million $ 211- 498 million $
Phase 2 734 million $ 436-930 million $
Phase3 1657 million $ 996-2527 million $
Approval 2496 million$ 1582- 3355 million $
End of preclinical 88 million
End of phase 1 399 million
Clearly it would not have been in Sares interest l believe to on licence at end of pre clinical.
Phase1 data results will add more meat to the bone and if we are fortunate to be able to raise funding then progress on phase 2 a.
Whilst a phase 2a trial does not have to include hundreds of patients to enable suitable statistical
analysis (accuracy is related to the magnitude of count) it will give a good indication as to the effectiveness of a compound.
We are not dealing with new kinase inhibitors.
The off target effects are known as from data on 1st generation poorly selective inhibitors.
Tyk2 has been given the all clear as per Deucravacitinib.
We now sit with a compound made up of the above known about molecules.
Are molecules are small that should enable absorption, all important distribution for the tissue involved on the indication with minimum effect on non targeted tissue, a low concentration in the blood stream that will enable minimal off target effects such as myocarditis ( heart ) and kidney damage. These are long term effects in areas of concern.
Our molecules are patented.
As the data and trial stage progress satisfactorily, then the value of the compound increases.
This will not necessarily be indicated by the current market cap as other factors involved ie finance, market sentiment and a degree of uncertainty.
It is not out of the question after satisfactory data shared between interested parties to recieve an offer of between 211 million$ to 490 million dollars plus later this year. These figures of course in dollars and represent also the lowest end of the scale. They may very well be considerably higher !
Pharmas patent protected pipelines are running short, inflation since report, as well as the demand for top end potential therapy will add value.
In addition we have 1802
Welcome comments on this.
Regards
Reading between the lines and only IMO if not already they are now gunning for a license deal at the end of P1a and packaging up SDC-1801 as a Phase 2 ready asset. I think the P2a is just to show intent moving forwards. Noting the company presentation and of interest they were only £1.2m shy of continuing on the previous trajectory of p1b in Aus interesting to limit the WRAP offer….
If SAR data from p1 is good you can see from the reports data just how undervalued this share is at the current time.
Very interesting article and data, well worth a read
Valuation and Returns of Drug Development Companies: Lessons for Bioentrepreneurs and Investors
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8854317/
Worthy of posting again, below is an extract from report which indicates at this stage the superiority of efficacy of 1801 over Deucravacitinib. Late preclinical stage admiitedly.
Interested to hear from any poster that the information is either false, misleading or not true.
'Both Tyk2 mutant mice and mice treated with SAR-20347 showed significant reduction of IL-6 and IL-17 in imiquimod-induced skin lesions, but only SAR-20347-treated mice presented reduced levels of IL-23, decreased keratinocyte proliferation and improved clinical score [22]. In addition, SAR-20347-treated mice manifested lower IL-17 gene expression compared to Tyk2 mutant mice [22]. In this model, Works et al. demonstrated that SAR-20347 treated mice showed an almost complete loss of IL-22 gene expression in skin lesions, and they postulate that SAR-20347 would impair the ability of Th17 and γδ cells to induce IL-22 [22]. IL-22 is required for development of autoreactive Th17 cells [77,78]. However, not only IL-22 production was impaired, since IL-22 signaling was also affected in vitro in a human colonic cell line, and STAT3 phosphorylation dependent of IL-22 was completely blocked [22].'
In addition
'Blocking both Tyk2 and Jak1 in this study was more effective than inhibition of Tyk2 alone at reducing psoriasis-like disease severity, keratinocyte proliferation, as well as IL-23, IL-17, IL-6, IL-22, and antimicrobial peptide gene expression, and the authors postulate that targeting a combination of Jak1 and Tyk2 using an orally available inhibitor may be a viable approach for treating psoriasis, but currently there are no ongoing or completed clinical trials for SAR-20347 [22].'
The above report from early 2023.'
Deucravacitinib the allosteric inhibitor does not interact with either Jak1 or Jak2 in the human body.
20347 is not a purely Tyk2
Regards.