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I am
If you think the earliest HNWI, who got in at 1p ish was still in at 10p then you're mad. i suspect that all the HNWI buys were worked by the same one or two who circulated their buys into the rising sp and i doubt any of them were still in for more than a few weeks, if that.
as to the current sp, it was walked down to the placing price. it didn't fall coincidentally!
the only problem for the share now is it'll take a bloody good piece of news to push the price past 10%ers now beyond better than 14p if that!
but, given time, don't see why 40-50p isn't unreasonable.
I must admit I am a little surprised by the RNS.
With the Dec 21 HNWIs losing 95% of their investment, if they have stayed the course, I wasn't expecting them or similar to stump up more cash.
I would also have expected the offer to be at a greater discount to the current share price, it's not attracting me. I might wait and see if this downward trend continues.
There is no way the sp fall here is simply due to the finance, poor option that it was.
A couple of million finance doesn't account for c70m drop in mcap. The downtrend had actually long before the finance package.
What we have I believe is short activity multiplied by the natural volatility of AIM. The same appears to be happening on AVCT.
There literally are no more pips to squeak now, so hopefully we will see a more rational sp action. I'll be cautious about the retail offer and add a small amount
The SP is a reflection of poor financing nothing more nothing less which is now sorted, all positive RNS’s and forward momentum on both SDC-1801 & SRA737 in the last 12 months have been clouded by RF.
Previously under RF we could have drawn down a further £2.7m + £1.2m Tax credits / totalling £3.9m being enough to fully complete P1a & P1b Inc working capital till Q4 2024.
With the current raise of £2.2m Inc 700k Tax credits and with a deferred portion of salaries that gives us a very comfortable cash runway into 2025 Interestingly we are only £1.7m short on a 24 patient trial in either P1b or P2a Trial - Not a huge shortfall /
IMO SDC-1801 is being packaged up for a partnership / license deal on good P1a results without progressing further and may explain why the switch to naming a P2a trail. As a bonus upcoming news is blinded from the Bod / Markets and brepocitinib P1 data is in the public domain for all to compare.
As always DYOR - Value Play Mk Cap a crazy £7m.
Just a few points from the March 2023 Investor Meets Q&A -
"First in human data generated in Australia is accepted by regulators world-wide."
"As far as the Phase 1a part of the trial is concerned, we plan to fully conduct that in Australia. For the Phase 1b, if we need to expand that out of Australia, we're not closing any doors, and it's possible that we could look for patients in the UK and other countries. But the current plan is to conduct all the Phase 1 trials in Australia."
"For the Phase 1b portion of our trial, we will collaborate with dermatology clinics that can refer appropriate patients to volunteer for the psoriasis study. One of the many advantages of conducting trials in Australia is the ready availability of psoriasis patients."
Since we appear to be skipping 1b and heading for a 2a trial, the BoD might look for any newer taxbreaks or govt. funding that wasn't available at the time last year.
Worth having a read of "Why conduct your clinical trial in Australia" as issued by "austrailianclinicaltrials.gov.au" and updated 29th January 2024 - accepted by US FDA, European EMA, follow accepted international GCP - good clinical practice.
GLA
You will find big Pharma have their hands in virtually everywhere including Oz
Brighty1: Many thanks for all your recent posts. I still feel Sareum has a lot to fall from the 10p issue price and some feel this is the first raise this year.
I agree with most of the stocks you tip to "explode", most notably HE1 which I hold too. I also feel we could see hugh growth in Blujay, versarian, Kefi, Kore Poitash and Beowulf.
For a UK trial, Would Sareum still need to provide additional data / undergo a review from GLP monitoring authority?
Common sense suggests a successful Phase 1 trial with no serious adverse events would supersede this... But then again, governmental authorities and paperwork...
Why risk it the MHRA are probably in the hands of big Pharma once bitten twice shy if we can continue in Oz why not
The Nucleus Network in Oz seems to specialise in P1 trials so I'm not sure if the P2a trial will also be carried out by them. It would make sense if they can do the trial for some degree of continuity but with positive P1a results maybe the BoD will have another crack at getting through the MHRA redtape.
The link below suggests the MHRA has finally got its act together re timelines for approvals and I think the clinical results from Oz would be acceptable to them.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65f463b550397e0011c755a2/MHRA-Performance-Metrics_CIT_2302-2401_CI_2303-2402.pdf
Not sure how trial costs compare between here and Oz but would hope the BoD can maximise cost efficiencies.
Where we are at now, none of it smells right, Peel Hunt, RF the board of Sareum, they must of known where this was heading. As for the positive posters that have gone to the AGM and done 100,s of hours research and posted genuine material, yet the negative posters try to blame them. Man up I say, as your to blame for not selling and nothing has changed with the Science, personally I think your embarrassing. We still await the data, that’s a defining moment for sure, none of the top researchers are to blame.
Brighty1 is correct. For example, I held 6.4 Million SAR shares which became 128,000 shares after the ridiculous tinkering in February 2022 and these were acquired in tranches around the 0.20 pence to 0.35 pence region in the previous few years. In old money the share price hit nearly 10 pence intraday in 2021. In new money that was in the region of 500 pence a share but as I recall it on the 50-1 share consolidation day in 2022 the share price had reduced to the equivalent new price of about 350 pence? i.e. It has fallen from 350 pence to 10 pence (new money) since. It is nice to see some positivity here. I can see the logic in a share price of over 100p in due course too but I am less fulsome in my praise of how the company has conducted its financial affairs.
Talatum, this is my exact point about researching a company. Many of us were buying Sareum shares at 0.2p / 0.3p. The share price then went from these lowly levels to above 9p before the share re-organisation . i.e. over x 30 for some people and x 25 approx for the likes of me. Some sold, some didn't. Others bought at the old 9p price and have been hugely diluted, which is awful. I'm not defending the company at all. I also believe that the Chairman should go. However, at 10p we could see a substantial rise, again, if the data is positive. The end game here is still a takeover and pre that a licencing deal for 1801 and then 1802. However, given the age of the directors M&A actvity is still the most likely outcome....
Good luck, Brighty
"it is a fact that in our sector Sareum at 10p is right back where it was a few years ago " -Brighty1 I am little confused by this statement, There was a consolidation in between those years of 1 for 50 when the price was around 6p. so we now need a price of £3.00 to be where we were then. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Now we are in a BH weekend and the herd is not around, we may get some sensible discussion. My view is simple, the science has not changed and we are in the best place since the beginning. Now commercially and financially we are a mess, the chairman is responsible for corporate governance and due diligence, he has failed on all counts and should resign immediately in my view. It is no point dwelling on the finances now, what’s happened is history. So as we bring 1801 to a pivotal point, with good results so far, we hopefully deliver and our share price recovers to at least £2.50. Well that’s my thoughts. I will add I have signed up for the 10p shares offering.
None of us get it right all of the time. However, if the timing works out the gains cane be superb.
* I was in Greatland, which went for me from just over 2p to over 28p. I bailed before the eventual 35p+ price. Sareum went from .3 to over 8p for me and took a decade but the x25+ gain was well worth the wait in my ISA and SIPP tax wrappers. I also experienced the meteoric rises in Argo, Novacyt and Synairgen. It is not ramping to say that these kind of "parabolic" gains occur. It's a fact. Two of my shares in the last year have gone up x 10+. UPL from .5 to 8p and POS 2p to 30p. It's about timing, research and getting to grips with the investment cycle of a particular company.
* In summary, there are some shocking posters on here - both rampers and derampers - but there are some very good posters on here who do their DD and research from RNS', briefings, the scientific / pertinent trade press and competitor analysis. It is a fact that in our sector Sareum at 10p is right back where it was a few years ago but that this time the science is far more advanced. i.e. an indication that SAR could have another significant rise if the data is positive. The caveat being "IF".
* The next small caps that look to have similar potential include GST, DGI, HEMO, ROAD, HE1, AVCT, WEB and SOU. Some of these, like SAR, have had big rises before and are back where the started but if you understand the particular business and its investment cycle and then time your purchase at the right time you stand a good chance of making a healthy gain.
* It takes time, patience and nerves of steel but well worth the gains when they happen in your ISA or SIPP.
* The best advice I was given was "Buy and ignore the daily fluctuations". Set yourself a target of, say, 18 months and see where SAR is then.....
Good luck, Brighty
What do you think about the blatant manipulation and de-ramping? I don't think that investors can be blamed for trying to protect their investments against this. Yet you seem to. What is your view on Sareum progress and market cap. Genuinely interested in your view
Good morning Xviolet - Nobody can say anything with any degree of certainty - this is AIM after all. Shareprices across the board are manipulated in both directions and is heavily reliant upon sentiment. The RNS a few weeks ago generated more negative speculation and negative sentiment here.
I don't think that it is black and white, nor is there ever going to be the certainty you allude to. I remain optimistic with regards to Sareums future and I only have the science and market cap to support my optimism. Others think differently and think that we are overvalued at £7m.
The investors that are down, made their own decisions and made them at the wrong time. I actually agreed with Puma that it is all about the timing whichever way you bet on the sp going. Those investors need to decide whether they wish to jump in and average down quite considerably at these levels. Those of us that are adding would stand to make a significant sum of money from here if everything comes good. So the Risk v Reward ratio comes into play and investors must decide for themselves whether this is worth a punt or not. Myself and others here think that £7m will be dwarfed once Sareum can release positive news. The art of making money is buying low and selling high and not the other way around after good news is released. If negative posters feel that they can squeeze 5p more out of the sp then fine. They go to a lot of trouble for just a few quid. Personally I don't give a stuff about 5p here or there, I just look at the market cap versus the Business progress. It could all go wrong and Sareum goes bust, but if it doesn't then it will have to bounce back quite significantly. It's all a risk as all AIM stocks are and people should take ownership of their own decisions or decide that investing is not for them.
Hmm. did I write 3p?
OK. Thats over-egging the pudding.
I just get a bit hot under the collar sometimes. The ramping and hype on this board has been proven to be completely out of order - facts have proven them wrong by a factor of 90 per ent losses. They are either spectacularly ignorant or worse and have been working in concert.
Its highly probable this will multiply many times from....
you can't say that for certain. I think when people are nursing 90 per cent losses its time to look carefully at people who say things like this and thing long and hard about their degree of enthusiasm. which is great, good for them. but maybe balance it with an understanding that Sareum may have to seek funding for 1b (that's my bugbear and I don't claim to be correct) and that the 1b trial could easily yield results that are either hopeless or just not quite good enough for a commercial product. so...
its just as probably that from here a fundraise takes the share price down to 3p and that a less than successful 1b type trial takes the share price down 0.2
i'm sure you are all aware of the risks - but you can't be - otherwise people wouldn't have lost 90%? I can only assume that risk management wasn't taken seriously. please take risk management seriously. and have a good weekend.
The share price is back to where we were 3 years ago but the science is further forward. Some of us have made good gains on Sareum from these levels. For me it was a near x25 in my ISA and SIPP. It’s about timing. If you still believe in the science then it is highly probable that this will multiply many times from the current and quite appalling 10p level. If the data for SRA737 and SDC1801/1802 turns out to be as good as some of us think then there is still going to be good money to be made here again. It’s whether investors now have faith in TM, SP and JR to deliver. That is an enormous conundrum.....
Good luck, Brighty.
Hi Gunnar hope alls good up in your neck of the woods. I’m just glad that SAR appear to have bought a bit of breathing space! As Pascal said again and again in December it’s the data that matters let’s hope some good data is not too far away. I think a licensing deal on 1801 to pay for the way forward on 1802 , the big one, is the key!
Hey up silver hopefully the data data data will be as good as or not better than what is out there at ph1 comparison I think ph2 a is a ballsy move if we get the result we hope for and then we get the interest to either partner or take 1801 off our hands and get 1802 into play
GLA