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Remember bondholders have already allowed a slip in repayment. Suggests there is little appetite to push into administration. That would be a scenario where everyone loses.
Maverick,
i feel you may have a point here. There remains a massive risk of near zero return for shareholders but there is also a reasonable chance that the large shareholders may engage in some sort of PE backed takeover at these prices. This is not quite game over. I sold all my holding - 50% at 27p and the rest at 22p. Took a big haircut. But on the basis now that there is a slither of a chance, iv'e taken a nibble back at 11.4p. Perhaps a fool and a hopeless cause. But here it is. ATB
Remember reading a double page spread in Investors Crapital re Afren before I invested.
Not sure why I don't buy that thing anymore
Interesting view there Fortissmo
Ask the auditors what they thnk?
Have some dry powder waiting😀👍⬆️
Didn't Afren still fail after a rights issue? not the same though as I believe there was fraud going on somewhere in the mix at Afren.
Great post and my thoughts too.
Play nice or everyone loses.
Looking at the Bonds trading at 15% value suggests there might well be a mexcian stand off here and the threat to greedy bondholders seeking hefty d4e is ADMIN. They really don't want this to go into ADMIN or they'll lose everything as well. That fact that debt sits higher over equity does not necessarily mean that shareholders have to carry the can on this one. At end of the day, the Thai project sunk this business along with high inflation etc. It's a viable business and order book strong. But if debt holders want to leave shareholders with zero... ot close to it... then shareholders can just pull the plug and debt holder go down the tube as well.
So there has to be some fair deal for all involved or there is zero point in continuing.
Now, with Ayman Asfari and AzValor Asset Management owning almost the key 29.9% these guys might be looking at a private deal post admin. That would certainly be a middle digit finger to the SFO by Asfari.... and perhaps his middel east backers will come to save him... but not everyone else if you follow. So in effect, Asfari gets the business back, takes it private for a while, gets mega contracts from MENA region and then relists 5 years down the line etc.
Ugly stuff... but if the bond holders play fair and leave shareholders 20% to 25% then this could rise like a phoenix and be back in the 30's and 40's based on potential $1bln+ markt cap and half debt burden.
Not a holder myself (was in the past) but genuinely can't say which way this will go apart from the fact that survival is in interets of both debt and equity holders and despite debt ranking higher... it's the shareholders that can pull the plug first via admin and bondholders know this.
Weren't PFC in discussions with the likes of Shell and BP lately...Blue Chip Companies who would surely have carried out Due Dillgence before any form of commitment.
I just don't get it ..
I lost my shirt with Afren ...hopefully not again ...but am going to stick it out even though I feel letdown
🤣🤣🤣🤣
We all of us (buyers and sellers) have no idea what the future holds. I have added all the way down I am currently 50% down, however I believe this is being played out to make an attractive acquisition for someone. Apollo or Asfari are likely to find the money or perhaps with the security guarantees some of the contracts we have will see forward payments being made to provide the liquidity required. My view - I appreciate others have their own perspective
OPINION is one thing.
Dishonesty is another.
Does anyone TRULY believe PFC is a "BUY" ?
THESE shares are at all time lows ànd haven't YET been diluted, a dilution that will wipe away a sliver of DEBT.
RISK vs REWARD ?
brave
I lost a ton on Carillion. Not saying this is the same but a lot of similarities. Long term contracts that look good on paper but an inability of the company as a whole to be profitable. The company should in current climate easily be generating good cash flows. That is isn’t is very concerning and I am sure anybody will think carefully before putting in any new equity as this seems like a money pit.
For existing shareholders the outlook is bleak. The debt for equity swap will be at a discount to whatever today’s price is, if it indeed goes ahead at all. Could be over 80% dilution or administration and complete wipeout is very likely. There is a chance that it d/e deal completes the company could look super cheap but it’s a real gamble this one.
I got really caught out catching a falling knife at Carillion. Won’t be doing the same again. Good luck all.
Indeed, it’s hilarious. Putting mouth where money isn’t anymore. 6p now the upside, and it would be there or below if it wasn’t for this mini short squeeze. Everyone said a squeeze was coming, well here it is. Some shorters want to close their positions for timing and cost reasons I would imagine.
Don't get it ?
Well publicised that the D4e will "substantially" dilute the value of every share ànd yet some PI on this board are ramping !
I ha
Newbie here. Decided to bail out and took a large loss. My logic being if trading is suspended for a month that will be sufficient for a capital loss for GCT purposes. I can then (unlikely) buy back in after the month if the company emerges at other side.
You were tying for second place. Since 2020 a gross buffoon shouting down those that brought the truth and the light.
Behaviour of some PIs illustrates why they are suckers for corporate incompetence or malfeasance (although no evidence of latter in this case).
What conceivable reason could one have to hold after yesterday's dire RNS knowing a suspension looms?
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Unless you actually have inside information it is not insider trading. He could sell. He’s not on the BOD. The report in meed about the Algerian contracts is keeping me from selling. Got a low average as well and can take the loss if I’m wrong. As it stands Petrofac is a going concern with a strong order book, assets to realise and the net additional short term credit is $100 million of credit support. It does seem a given that it is a going concern with a future. The equity will drop more but once the company can focus on trading and profit there is no reason why it cannot return to a market cap of 1 billion in the medium term. Folks buying today are hoping for a takeover but the fact anyone is buying is remarkable. I bought in on a big dip and did so with the view it was a two year punt barring a takeover and expecting a 400% return. I still believe that will happen, barring a takeover of some sort.
I can only guess he is in for the ride like every other holder, I don't know his net worth but this debacle would have wiped 100's of millions from him personally, why didn't he take action last year, maybe 3 years ago?!
I hold 55k shares, so no where near as many here, and was one of those who bought on the rise to 34p.
I think i have concluded to wait it out and have already written off the money.
. . . no money gets out
...the Financial Director gets my vote of 'No Confidence'.
Sells at 11.5
Surely if he is not on the baord any longer he is not privvy to insider information (he has the same view of any other large/corporate shareholder)
He perhaps has faith in a solution being found.....on the flipside perhaps he knows that selling his holding would be the coup de grace for PFC.......wish I knew his thoughts......I have only my own thoughts and that is hold.....I have come this far and until I sell I have neither goined or lost anything
Morning Petrofackers....
Last day to get out..... 🤙