Agreed Chitty. The next few months could be life affirming for some and hopefully will enable those who have been ‘underwater’ for a long time to be able to surface and get some oxygen in their portfolios.
GLA long term (oh go in then and short term) holders.
Seadoc and his wonky calculator. . . Bless . . .
3000 bopd at 97.5% utilisation at $65 / barrel less $20 lift costs at $/£ of 1.25 and 32% tax gives roughly £25m profit after tax per annum.
On a forward P/E ratio of 25 which is nominal for an O&G that’s about £600m - roughly 9p per share - assuming UKOG can keep on replenishing the supply.
I doubt 9p in reality but 1.44p
Would love to see how you got the Seadoc . . .
It could mean that there’s a shed load of of in that particular layer of the Portland (when compared to others) and if we tap into that exclusively for the horizontal it could flow like the Amazon river - hence the term optimised for production. . .
But you have your opinion. I have mine and practically 3 million little friends backing me up ;-)
Deferred cash payment of £4m (£3m due Dec 31st)
1000 bopd from HH-2z
200 bopd from HH-1
Gives rough net income to UKOG of about £1.3m pcm
$/£ of 1.2
Lift cost about $17/barrel
POO Brent of about $65/barrel
So assuming that we produce in Nov and Dec then that’s £2.6m by the end of the year.
So maybe another dippy in the YA kitty for the £3m due but then free and clear.
Happy to have my calcs challenged
Season - your calf’s are wrong.
If the remainder of the YA loan was paid to date at today’s conversion rate then there would be approx 7.14bn shares in issue in total.
The £4m outstanding to Tellurian in deferred payments can be made in cash and by that point UKOG should be generating A LOT of cash.
You’re back off filter but now I’m reminded why I filters you in the first place . . .
Thanks, yes you are right. I do concentrate on my current investments too. I’m watching UJO and may invest invest in the future but not at the moment. Too much uncertainty, too many dark dealings and too much hype.
Fairview - fair question. I’m just asking questions and trying to provoke debate.
I don’t doubt that UJO has some prospects but they’re a long way off and I think that a lot of people are being played by some very malicious types for their own personal gain.
In fact I may be too late TBH. Actually I probably am. This peaked at what .38p - doubt it’ll get back there in the next 3-5 years.
It’s headed south on a daily direct route since that point. It’ll hit the buffers at .1p in my opinion because that’s what it’s worth based on a discounted NPV of future revenues as of today.
If you think that my questions and provocations cause the SP to drop materially then wow, just wow. I can control the world!!!!!
Heid. So, that’s not a ‘No’ is it?
Honestly this is a boiler room / hot house stock.
SP pumped by the likes of TW / BMD / COIL and the CEO on Twitter. Loads of ramping on here along the lines of great news around the corner, but in reality there’s a delayed (canned?) EWT with no clear indication of when it will recommence, the operator is going to market to recapitalise (worrying?) on a deal that’s being pumped by the villain BMD.
Now being systematically dumped. Look at the volumes. COIL and other large stakeholders are dropping this stock like a sack of unmentionable stuff.
Honestly people, look at the facts. Look at what UJO is generating in revenues, look at what proven recoverable net reserves it has in place and think.
Why are major shareholders dumping this stock?
Hmmm . . .
Heid - the language ‘I’m here until next year’ and ‘I’m very comfortable with my holding’ is very similar to the language used with other AIM Oiler’s that you have significantly invested in previously, which you haven sold out once you have hit your exit point. The thing is it’s not exactly clear when youre selling out is it? All these reassuring messages of long term commitment and then oh, yes, I’ve sold out.
Are you fluffing the punters to get out with your profit? I think that you are, personally.
Excellent responses all. Thank you :-)
So of those reserves, what % are recoverable over what timeframe?
What % are directly attributable (net) to UJO?
What value do you attribute to a barrel of recoverable reserves?
Therefore, what do you value UJO at based upon the known facts?
Again, just asking for a reasoned argument.
Chris Oil bought his stake at 0.1p and below back before June.
He’s selling out now at over 100% profit after having hyped the heck out of across multiple platforms.
If the “we’re going to have stellar news within a month” crew are correct, why would he sell out now? When UJO are purportedly on the she of transformational news?
Do you seriously think that you have greater insight / knowledge than Chris Williams who has made a massive amount of cash successfully by pulling in the herd through his influence?
Hmmm. . .
If you’re convinced that his strategy is correct “getting in on RBD” then why would Hold UJO and not do the same yourselves?
Just questions. That’s all.
Chris Oil is not “out of the way”
He still holds 3% of UJO confetti (sorry, equity).
That’s still 360,000,000 shares.
If he does still continue to reduce his holding (and there is no indication that he is planning to stop) then that is A LOT of downward pressure on the SP.
You have to ask why?
What price did he accumulate at?
What price is UJO at now?
What PROVEN assets underpin the MCAP?
What revenues underpin the MCAP?
Which way is cash flowing and at what rate?
All of these questions will be shouted down and I’ll be accused of de-ramping.
Unless you can answer these clearly then you’re investing in hype and b/s.
This SP will drop a further 50% before the end of the month.
Cash flow from approx 220 bopd at $65/barrel.
Debt already discussed. Not massive at all when compared to others in the market place.
There is a CPR in place (Xodus).
Portland oil pool estimated at 11-14m stoip visible to HH-1 alone.
Agreed, yes, drilling in progress. Anyone got an estimate of Chance of Success. I’ll go with 97.5% of successful drill at HH-2/2z.
That’s quite exciting really.
Yes we’re down on consecutive days but the market FTSE was off almost 3% across the index today.
Other AIM oilers are being battered too, irrespective of their situation. There are a few exceptions agreed but overall UKOg is faring OK against the headwinds. . .