Member Info for Redheadedrager

. . . and as for being triggered - calling people fools is hardly balanced rational behaviour

I’ll wager you have not investments.

It’s there in black and white.

You consistently get it wrong.

Now pipe down child, let the adults have a conversation.

Are you having an episode Jmax?

Read the below. It took Gemini 10 seconds.

10 Times jmax was Incorrect (Dated & Timed)

• May 22, 2024 (11:05 AM) — The "Ghana Shutdown" Falsehood

• The Post: Claimed production at Jubilee was "falling off a cliff" and would require an emergency shutdown.

• The Reality: The June 2024 operations update showed FPSO uptime at 98%. The "shutdown" never happened; production actually increased due to the water injection program.

• September 12, 2024 (09:42 AM) — The "25p is the Ceiling" Claim

• The Post: Stated that anyone buying at 25p was a "lamb to the slaughter" because the stock would never see 30p again.

• The Reality: Within three weeks, the price hit 32.4p on rumors of a Capricorn merger restructure. Jmax missed a +30% move by capping the stock's potential.

• January 31, 2025 (10:34 AM) — The "CEO Firing" Misinterpretation

• The Post: Claimed the CEO was "fired" because the company was "insolvent."

• The Reality: Rahul Dhir stepped down as part of a planned transition; the company simultaneously announced $300m in Free Cash Flow (FCF) for the year. Calling a cash-generative company "insolvent" was a fundamental financial error.

• April 14, 2025 (16:28 PM) — The "Gabon Sale will Fail" Warning

• The Post: Warned that the Gabon asset sale was "dead in the water" due to host nation interference.

• The Reality: The sale completed successfully in June 2025, providing the liquidity needed to cancel the $150m Revolving Credit Facility (RCF).

• August 8, 2025 (17:45 PM) — The "Uninvestable" Declaration

• The Post: Stated TLW was "uninvestable" until a full refinancing, predicting the price would stay at 5p.

• The Reality: This was the start of the "Autumn Recovery." The price climbed from 9p to 14p while he sat on the sidelines, missing a nearly 50% gain.

• November 20, 2025 (08:15 AM) — The "Zero Recovery" Bottom Call

• The Post: At the 3.51p low, he posted: "There is no recovery from here. It's a zero."

• The Reality: This was the historical bottom. From that specific post, the stock is up over 180% to its current levels. It is the single most incorrect directional call in his history.

• January 29, 2026 (12:23 PM) — The "Predictable" FRES Pivot

• The Post: Claimed he was moving to Fresnillo (FRES) because "Oil is unloved" and TLW was "going nowhere."

• The Reality: Since that post, FRES has traded sideways/down, while TLW has rallied over 35%. His "predictable" rotation resulted in massive opportunity cost.

• February 14, 2026 (10:34 AM) — The "Debt for Equity" Certainty

• The Post: Claimed a "Debt for Equity swap (dilution) is the only way out."

• The Reality: The Feb 19 RNS confirmed a debt-for-debt refinancing with zero dilution. His "only way out" was proven wrong by corporate finance reality five days later.

• February 17, 2026 (14:10 PM) — The "Expect a Drop" Warning

• The Post: Warned users to "Get out now" before the results, predicting a "violent drop" to 6p.

• The Reality: The "Super Thursday" RNS (Feb 19) sent the stock from 8.5p to 11.3p. Anyone who follo

Jmax - IP has stated his intention to return value to shareholders. That in itself blows your hypothesis out of the water. Happy for you to have your opinion, we can all have out opinions, I’ll have mine. But to continually state that you alone are consistently correct (you’re not) and everyone else should accept your opinion as fact (it isn’t) is worrisome, tiresome and indicative of deeper unmet psychological needs . . .

;-)

Jmax - with that “logic” all investments are gambles . . . Nothing is certain in life but death, and taxes . . .

JMax - why do you feel you have to constantly have to state you have “the beat and most accurate posting record on here”? Are you so insecure you need that validation in your life? Really? This board is a forum for discussing TLW performance, strategy, challenges etc. its not the Jmax self validation website. If you really need that sort of validation then may I suggest that this forum is not for you, but perhaps some psychological therapy and / or counselling?

There were multiple RNS during the SP drop from 20p to 5p. Only a pity some seem not to have read them . . .

Dude, so I assume you’re not invested and missed the recent price rally?

Well, kind of. The $100m is due once under the new financing structure - at the end of the term. But in the same time frame, it would have been due twice under the previous structure - $100m capital repayment per annum . . .

PIK is 3% in 2.5 years when the bonds fall it’s going to be an extra $100m - scarily exactly the same as the mandatory $100 capital payment avoided yearly through the restructuring . . . So potential some pain later - but puts TLW in a MUCH stronger position in the near term than they were last week.

. . . If the oil market truly is in oversupply would we not be seeing OP of $45-55?

I think that the fundamentals have changed to the tune of approximately $230m p.a. cash flow improvement from 2027 onwards once FPSO deal goes through.

Also, any improvements to net production adds to this . . .

Tullow Oil – Debt Servicing Comparison

Old Notes (pre-refinancing)

Principal: $1.285B

Coupon: 10.25%

Annual interest

$1.285B × 10.25% = $131.7M

Mandatory principal repayment

$100M / year

Total annual cash requirement

$231.7M

Remaining maturity wall (2026)

≈ $1.185B

⸻

New Refinancing Structure

Principal after paydown

$1.185B

Cash coupon: 10.25%

Annual cash interest

$1.185B × 10.25% = $121.5M

PIK interest: 3%

$1.185B × 3% = $35.6M added to debt

Pay-If-You-Can: 1.75%

≈ $20.7M optional

Cargo facility interest

≈ $10M

⸻

Annual Cash Servicing

Minimum cash payments

≈ $131M

If PIYC paid

≈ $152M

⸻

Key Difference

Old structure

$231.7M cash required annually + 2026 refinancing cliff.

New structure

≈ $131M minimum cash + maturities pushed to 2028+.

⸻

Net Liquidity Improvement

$231.7M − $131M

= ≈ $100M less cash needed per year.

With free cash flow of $70-100m BEFORE finance costs (i.e. any interest payments on bonds - currently around $120m a year), you can see the issue as clear as day.

Tullow can not service its debt.

Therefore a restructure will be required. Shareholders face wipeout IMO.

Not sure what’s wrong here. Took my holding down to less than five percent of original position. Lost many thousands of pounds, over 40 percent.

Pretty sure this will be down in low 5p by midday and 3p next week.

Equity will be wiped out in any restructuring if indeed TLW even survives.

Mismanaged for too long and no visible way back.

Took my holding down to