Natwest Share Chat (NWG)

Completely agree with what you're saying prophet, I think the war and HMG have made it go down further, we were looking at about 5.80 and a recovery back to ~£6.30 but then with the rest it went down to £5.19 so all have a part to play.

Fingers crossed it won't be too long until we get back to £7 but the plus side is we keep adding to our holding with lower prices to reinvest divis!

Agreed, I think Rayner would be awful (she is a massive hypocrite and a liar too).

The good news is that Burnham may lose the by election 😂

I am more worried who replaces starmer but its a rock & a hard place scenario & i think the SP now more affected by Labour rather than the Iran war.

WhightKnight, Natwest share price collapsed around the Feb 4, Trump only started the whack a Muller war around Feb 28 !

The conflict did not help and nor does the brain dead morons in No 10.

But everything still looks good in Natwest...just gota wait this one out really.

I was being conservative with my estimate, was wondering why Prophet was saying I was denying the truth 🤣

Following today’s Reuters and Sky news about loosening the post-crisis ring-fencing rules, we are likely looking at a solid catalyst for UK banks. While it won't impact this year's numbers, forward-looking analyst models should start revising outer-year EPS upwards. BARC and NWG have the most structural friction to shed here, making them prime candidates for price target upgrades. No clue about the immediate share price volatility, but for the longer term, it should be a great catalyst.

This is probably the best bank share in the UK.

Just sit back & relax

Even the management are dumping shares, not a good sign for the future

Interesting that J P Morgan's CEO has said today that he will cancel his bank's planned brand new £3bn Canary Wharf HQ if there is any indication of higher bank taxes emerging from current political instability.

He announced this project last November, the day after Reeves' budget, when she ducked out of increasing the bank tax additional levy, so more than a coincidence, suggesting the two had a quiet dialogue together on the subject. The announcement suggested the project would create 8000 new city jobs and boost the financial services economy by around £10bn.

Just one reaction from a major overseas bank, before HSBC, S & C and Santader et al chip in. Financial services accounts for around one third of UK total GDP, so its a brave politician the roughs this sector up...................

I used to be a local councillor near Ilford and Epping was always staunch Conservative but Ilford isn't the same mindset.

They may get an independent MP instead but I do not expect Reform to do well there, I could be wrong!

"...there is, currently, no viable alternative to Starmer,..." Big Angie "Hold my alcopop"

Agreed Whight...Wes is a sharp, young Essex lad on the make and a true champagne socialist in the making, so unlikely to upset the City........two problems with him.....his majority in Ilford North is a miniscule 528, so in a general election, in the current mood of the nation, he'd get slaughtered, probably by anyone who Reform put up, including mickey mouse !!.

Secondly, in his formative years with the labour party, as a young sprog, he was very close to Mandelson, which probably seemed sensible at the time, but doesn't look too clever now. Imagine the digging the Daily Mail would gleefully do on that, if he ever got the top job.

Herein lies the awful problem.....much as it irks me to admit it, there is, currently, no viable alternative to Starmer, which indicates how low, in political terms, we've come. Hence I arrive at the odds on bet that, for the moment, bank profits look fairly safe and increasingly attractive.

If interest rates stay put, of even rise later this year, NWG will absolutely cream it. Interesting dilemma !!.

The only one of the main Labour group I would think wouldn't be awful is Wes Streeting.

Angela Rayner owes her tax still

Lammy is awful and so are the rest 😂😭

I haven't a clue what the clown said.

He said this would hit £4 and under £5 but I've yet to see it.

My average is around £1.50-1.70 so I'm well in the black and will earn 25% a year on my initial investment.

You can keep talking rubbish, amen to filters. No doubt he'll make another account soon!

I think the 2 Ronnies are more our thing quip !

WhiteKnight

''They only come out when this share is going down by multiple percentage points''

Wrong again Whiteknight. You are luckylurker are like the chuckle brothers. Anyone following your investment advice would now be sitting down under a pair of traffic lights with an empty coffee cup.

I said the share price would go below £5.50 and it did. I said the FTSE will go below 10,000 and it will. What have you contributed ? A sick note from your GP and a spare pair of underpants when the share price headed towards £5

I wish you could have heard my pub when forest got trounced by Villa. But if your a top 5 club you will never get fined or have points dropped. Palace know that only too well . Nice bounce today but looking to buy back into BP by thursday so looking for some big rises with NWG for some added value.

They only come out when this share is going down by multiple percentage points.

Off up to Sheffield to meet a football club then onto York and Middlesbrough for meetings but it's great to see an uptick today.

Especially as Trump is doing his level best to do the opposite!

We had a good slice of luck last night but all in all I thought it was a foul.

Two more wins and we are guaranteed at least a trophy!

Hopefully Forest, Arsenal and Palace winning Europe and Leeds beat Spurs and lose to West Ham. That would potentially be the best season ever 😂

Scratch that, hopefully City get relegated with their 115 charges and both Spurs and West Ham stay up!

My NWG shares on Ii , dividend received middle of the 6th auto reinvest on 7th

A penny out!…

UK domestic banks held “buy” ratings across the board at Jefferies, even as the sector de-rated more than 15% since January despite earnings upgrades of similar magnitude, with political uncertainty over a potential Labour leadership change weighing on share prices.

Jefferies raised medium-term earnings per share forecasts by roughly 5%, lifting terminal base rate and five-year swap rate assumptions to 3.5% from the start of 2027, up 25 basis points from prior estimates set in February, though still 50-75 basis points below the current yield curve.

Barclays saw its price target raised to 590p from 570p, while NatWest Group was trimmed to 730p from 750p and OneSavings Bank cut to 700p from 780p. Lloyds Banking Group held at 125p and Paragon Banking Group was lowered to 1,000p from 1,060p. All five carry "buy" ratings.

The structural hedge tailwind remained a central pillar of the bull case. Domestic banks ran a combined hedge notional of £684 billion in Q1 2026, generating a yield of 2.80% against five-year forward rates averaging 4.49%, a gap that Jefferies said could add roughly 40% to current profits, or 7 percentage points to return on tangible equity. Q1 2026 sector ROTE reached 16%.

Private sector credit growth accelerated to 4.9% year-on-year through March 2026, with large non-financial corporate lending rising a "staggering" 11% and three-month annualised growth hitting 6.5%, according to Bank of England data cited in the report.

Mortgage lending was up 3% year-on-year and SME lending rose 3.7%, ending 45 consecutive months of net repayments.

The Bank of England’s Scenario C, which assumed Brent crude peaking at $130 per barrel and sustaining above $100 through late 2028, showed UK GDP growth remaining positive throughout, bottoming at 0.3% in Q1 2027, with unemployment peaking at 5.7%.

Jefferies said that implied only a roughly 10 basis point increase in sector write-off rates and a mid-single digit profit impact.

Jefferies said the bigger concern was political. "Tail risks associated with the War combined with the potential for a significant lurch of government to the left after May elections is limiting appetite from new investors," the brokerage said.

Betting markets placed Angela Rayner at 25% and Andy Burnham at 22% as most likely next Labour leader, while a 41% probability was assigned to Starmer’s exit occurring between July and September 2026.

Jefferies said it now considered a bank surcharge increase "more likely than not," estimating a roughly 2 percentage point rise would reduce sector profits by 2-3%.

Forecast distribution yields of roughly 13% in 2027 and roughly 15% in 2028, combined with buyback programmes, Barclays and Lloyds each expected to repurchase a further £2 billion of stock within eight months, underpinned the case for holding the sector through near-term noise. Barclays was preferred near-term; Lloyd 6-12month timescale

Bloody Halifax just updated my drip so down a few points vs other trading accounts ! But happy with my lot & the largest dividend I have ever received from NWG mainly as i moved a lot of my BP holding before x date. But all good . Dont forget to vote tomorrow if you live in one of those areas denied a vote by these blithering idiots in charge. Once current events calm down who knows wot height NWG will achieve. Mind you currently I am more concerned about Russia losing the war & Putins demise , but before he accidently falls out of a window he will do something particular crazy 1st.

Quite right LoggyLogbot,

I remember thinking exactly the same when I bought here and NWG was completely out of favour. The share price on open was down 16% after not bad results. Back in late October 2023. And just look at the share price appreciation since. The fact I've had 38% of my initial outlay returned back to me through dividends, in five payments (2.5 years), I doubt can be even equalled, let alone bettered. A few small pullbacks along the way but the fundamentals just keep on getting stronger. I've been running my 'fair value' here since that time. Last call was £7.10. But, since the alteration in the outlook for interest rates, it's now up to £7.31. Outside forces allowing, it'll get there. The rotation in NWG bonds is expected to add £1.5b to income alone in 2026. "In the FTSE 100, few companies offer a better combination of a high dividend yield and a strong margin of safety. While some stocks have higher raw yields, NatWest's expected 6.64% (38p @ 572p) yield is unusually well-covered by earnings (approx. 2.2 X cover) making it one of the most robust and sustainable income plays in the index for 2026."

Guess who didn't get their dividends until after closing yesterday 😂😭

"This share has almost fallen 25% since February."

February - you mean you picked a month which has the 52 week high, and just before the start of a major war, for the base price to work from?

"People are still quoting analysts' forecasts like they actually mean someting. Talk of £8 when the share price is in freefall ! What madness is that ?"

The price, along with most other stocks, is fluctuating erratically during the conflict(s) we are witnessing. These analyst quotes are clearly based on fundamentals but would only be attainable in a better macro environment. Talking about it is good, it shows forward planning - buying now with hope that the Middle East situation settles. I bought LLOY during Covid which worked out well. There are absolutely no guarantees but I am optimistic that my purchases between 5.40 & 5.90 will end up over the years strongly 'up'.

HL is now in 👍

In II but not HL, and they are usually quick.

Nothing in my HL and II accounts yet

In at DBS Singapore

Not at II either

Just dropped in on my Trading 212 a/c, but nothing on HL as yet.

At Freetrade and Trading 212 either.

''Longterms'' we are all dead.

Very true for all individual humans, although collectively humankind will continue. As NatWest is a collective endeavour that's been around for over 50 years, let's assume that it has a normal human lifespan, thus around another 35 years of life. What does this time period hold? More wars, more economic fluctuations, more governments mismanaging things. Is this worthwhile to shareholders? If the dividends continue, then yes. As a shareholder, Quilp, do you think the dividends will continue?

Barbausa

''Longterms'' we are all dead.

Incredibly interesting post from Quill about the macro climate and how it could affect NatWest. How do think these factors will affect NatWest across the short, medium, and long terms, Quilp?

I love the majority of the posters here, I hope they're not put off posting here.

KatieD spot on, but we need to make this group a bit more inclusive at the moment as its mainly old geezers but we have recently attracted some kids just weaned from the tit & badly need a matron figure to keep them in order i suggest.

Welcome in Katie, probably the worst time to join this board with a new account 😂

The cynic in me thinks it's another Inge alt and I really hope I'm wrong. Please please prove me wrong 😁

I come here for good insight from the other members and a good chat!

19 posts since 22.50 last night from this particular & very strange individual & 19 posts which have contributed exactly nothing to this forum.

Never has it been easier to put a muppet on "Ingenore" & undoubtedly some medication is required.

I bet he / she is a riveting dinner party guest.

guys may i offer the best advice you'll get all day here.

mute

inge108

quilps

he'll get bored of talking to the ether and find somewhere else to go.

my average is c.£1.80 so i'm really not that bothered what rubbish he spouts.

i've muted both accounts and reported for disruptive behaviour. all i'm seeing is a walk of green filtered comments now but it's better than reading that ****e.

.wealthoracle.co.uk/admin/featured-companies

NatWest delivered a strong Q1 2026, with attributable profit up 14% to £1.43bn and EPS up 15.5% to 17.9p. Total income rose 9.5% to £4.36bn, supported by higher net interest income, stronger hedge income and lending growth, while RoTE remained attractive at 18.2%. Net interest income increased 12% year-on-year to £3.39bn, with NIM improving 20bps to 2.47%. Customer momentum was solid, with loans excluding central items up £7.2bn in the quarter and deposits up £3.1bn, taking customer assets and liabilities to £900.1bn, up 5.2% year-on-year. Costs remained well controlled. The cost:income ratio improved to 46.5%...

.wealthoracle.co.uk/admin/featured-companies

Inge wots facebook?

You might get more followers on trainspotters monthly

Luckylurker,

nobody’s interested in your days itinary, try facebook👌

Steviefella have a trip to the lloy board there is every type of crackpot you can imagine on there.

Inge

"I might even dip my toes in a 50p and take a risk"

If you're not invested in NWG, why are you even here!

Ain’t the first and won’t be the last to fall on good to great results. But, the fundamentals are what they are..

“With high performance comes high expectations, and NatWest has slipped today in terms of outlook rather than delivery. The slightly bearish reaction to the numbers reflects the disappointment, although in context it does little to derail the group’s onward march. The shares have risen by 22% over the last year, as has the wider FTSE 100, and by 90% over the last two years. The current dividend yield of 5.6% is another strong attraction amid the group’s generous shareholder returns programme and the market consensus of the shares as a buy is likely to stay in place, with NatWest continuing to push Barclays to become the preferred play in the sector.”

Let's hope it's £5 for when Tuesday comes and the dividend payment hits! Buy plenty at £5 for free 👍

Why didn’t they take profit yesterday ? why wait until the bad news then sell??mmmm

Profit taking on this week's rise... it'll recover by close and then onwards.

Added again @ £5.64

£5 incoming 👍👍👍

Def failed lloy board members but they are like locusts & eat up all the joy in the world. Oh well my lawn is calling then a few pints of Landlords & a few cigars now the weather is improving I think I will crack open some of my expensive brands & celebrate my boys result last night . Going to look at the logistics with my boy to see if we can plan a trip to the final. Kids do yourself a favour take & look how long we have been posting on ere & then look at the NWG price you will see most of us are already in carpet bagging territory. But hey ho lads always good to nick some pin money for friday !

Could be a dividend cut in the near future

You could blame it on the renters act coming today, landlords selling up and loss of buy to mortgages gone🙏😭

No, must be not dead advice to quilp to short. oh how the grass is greener!!

That’s because the transaction has not completed yet, if you look at the consensus figures in their website you can see when it’s expected.

Inge, what’s not so good as hoped for. Which particular metric? Here is your time to shine

Sparks, it’s up 12% but more crucially 5.7% ahead of consensus

Really? Upgrade in guidance and profit is up 12%. Sounds good to me.

Not so good figures as they hoped for,only one way for this share now!

No Inge, it want actually Hepatitis in the end, I had a medical issue.

Imagine laughing at someone going into hospital. You're clearly mentally unstable.

I'm done, genuinely. Your family would be embarrassed of you if they read this drivel.

All good, you're filtered and won't be unfiltered again. I gave you benefit of the doubt but you're beyond help.

Oh yes , remember now you were in hospital (too tight to buy bottled water on holiday) divi time next week you might get some cash 😀😀

when did i go missing inge/quilp, you're genuinely talking rubbish.

the only time i went silent over the past 4 weeks was when i was taken into hospital.

can't really be helped, i wish you would become a better human, noone here is a bad person and you are just plain rude to them.

i feel for you because you're an embarrassment, you've even ****ed off posters who are really hard to annoy.

grow up, i'm filtering you both again because it's just a waste of my time.

Perhaps they are lloy boards rejects ! But they love a know it all !

We've sadly acquired a serious whacko on this board, lads, despite several years of useful and amusing discourse. Great shame.

Suggest we all shut down until it goes away.

Still time to short this Quilp, the sp will be back over £6 tomorrow. Show us what you're made of laddie.

Has trump been assinated

Bailey is an idiot.

He was sacked from his job as the head of FCA, and as failure is well rewarded, they make him the Governor of The Bank of England. So by being useless, and clueless you get promotion.

I totally agree.

It blows my mind that they’re comfortable to offer any opinion. That should be left to observers, analysts and those professionals who have committed their careers to financial advice.

Interesting how people in these financial institutions, such as Sarah, feel the need to constantly preach negativity. Just looking at her boss, before he even opens his mounth, makes me reach for the malt whisky bottle.How on earth do they hope to inject confidence into investors in UK markets and industrial projects by pumping this stuff out all the time.

I suspect you don't get a job at our central bank, these days, without professing a lifelong admiration for Milne's depressing character, Eeyore

The BoE's own record on economic forecasting is appalling, they were far too late in lifting interest rates from zero, when inflation started to rocket following Putin's war and it's sloppy monitoring and controls on banks' lending policies led to the 2008 crash.

She, Bailey and the rest of the mob should be encouraging positivity and encouraging companies and investors to promote growth .

I saw, when did they become traders?

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c75kp1y43lgo

Of course! Long term I'll make money, so will you but it's nice to hear the market once in a while too 😁

White Knight,

Life is always full of regrets, should have, would have.

I sold all my NWG holding and Barc holding when they had rose. I bought back 10k NWG at 600p and another 10k today at 580p.

I saw this the other day and knew I should've sold my £10k too up, now I'm back to basically no profit on it 🤣

Next time I'm selling half unless Iran and Trump are 100% over the war

It was going so well...until you mentioned Liverpool

🤣🤣🤣

Still holding onto the hope we can still win it this year...less likely than Inge wanting to be a part of the community tho!

Inge, it irks me to join this embarrasing squable but I note that you've been a member of this website since 2020 and only managed 37 posts in total, during that time..........

............that's around 6 posts per annum, my analytical brain tells me. On that basis, you've managed to aggravate some worthy, amusing and knowledgeable regular contributors whilst using up your annual allocation for 2026. Can I, on behalf of all the board's regulars and 'real investors' wish you well in the remainder of the year and hope for a more positive, useful return for you, next year as you utilise your next annual allocation of 6.

Now, where were we.......ah yes, Liverpool's prospects next year............

We are all old age pensioners these days but we was very tasty back in the day . Mind you a few of us can still hold our own . Come on Inge wots the word on the street with real investors today ! I am just waiting for my Bank Divis & deciding wot to use my the rest of my ISA allowance on , i know that nots really on the edge but happy with my pace of life ! Happy St Georges day & i apologise if i have triggered you !

Is that the bully boy gang then,very exciting😀😀

Happy St Georges Day boys & Girls sorry & real investors ! Gonna go see the gang for a few cheap pints this afternoon. Divi day looming & i wonder if this lull will hold until then ?

Terry Venables was Malcolm assistant at palace ! My old mates uncle was Nicky Chatterton who was captain of CP & Millwall when he moved there & his grandad was the head groundsman Len Chatterton in the good old days. Another dull day as predicted.

My best guess for this market shake out, especially today while Wall St is flying, is that there's got to be a real possibility of, at least, a leadership contest or even a GE now.... The s**t from this Mandleson fiasco just keeps piling up (I watched the Ollie Robbins parliamentary grilling, this morning) and I'd be surprised if there was a Labour councillor still standing after these forthcoming May elections.

If Starmer and Reeves go, this bank sector will get seriously clobbered.......Rayner / Milliband will slap a massive extra profits tax levy on it.

I get that, I quite like Palace, my dad played there many years ago when Malcolm Alisson was the manager.

There are a lot of vocal Arsenal fans but they are the minority, I am torn with Arteta because I think he's good but frustrated with how the season has unravelled but as you said we are lucky to be where we are!

I wish Trump would make up his mind so we can get on with moving the SP North!

Strange dull, lethargy about the market at present. One of my old trainees, who still works in the City, described the mood as 'punch drunk with daily world shattering headlines' which become impossible to continually process and evaluate. So we turn the focus to footy results.

Normally, you'd expect this sp to be steaming ahead of next week's AGM and Q1 trading statement, given the vastly more attractive interest rate environment (for banks !) and those mind blowing US bank results recently (granted, helped by their investment banking exposure).

Logically, you'd expect NWG's sp to be comfortably north of 650p by a week on Friday, but, as I've said before on this board, since when does logic ever enter into it................I've got high hopes for a better season from Liverpool next year, by the way.

Robbo they keep banging on about how they aint won anything for 4 years , when they do that in a Palace pub where it took us a 100 + year to win our 1st bit of silverware it gets a bit boring but its all friendly banter ! Anyhow looks like a flat day on the market . But all eyes on Starmer today liar liar pants on fire !But I find his supporters more stranger than Arsenal fans !

Edinburgh your making a good case for little man syndrome !

Post of the week! haha

Edinburghvalue

There are a lot of unpatriotic people in Downing Street.

Speak for yourself and not for me.

I'm leaving because of the tax situation, I pay a lot of tax and don't get anything for it.

Try Dubai mate - I heard it’s nice this time of year with the explosions and unstable neighbours.

Grass isn’t any greener.

People running this country down all the time gets on my nerves- most unpatriotic people in Britain.