Member Info for notdeadyet

Good end to the week for bank stocks here and in the US market today. Most pundits now expecting probable interest rate increases from both the Fed and BoE, if not next week, then fairly soon. Contrast that with 100% expectations of at least 2 cuts at the start of the year. What a turnaround.

I've learnt my lesson and am in hardup's camp about getting over enthusiastic, so we'll see what next week brings, but conditions are right now for this sector to produce cracking results and divi payouts.

Good week-end to all.

Not a problem Whight........nothing wrong with a bit of pleasant banter in these troubled times.

You should hear some of the things my kids say to me............always costs them a large round of drinks !!.

Cheers.

Good to see some of your 'O level' physics has still stuck Whight, probably, like me, as its a long time ago.

I force myself to watch some of Prof Brian Cox's brilliant astronomy TV progs and always end up resorting to the single malt to stop the onset of a headache.

As long as you regulars on this board know what I'm trying to put over, then job done...............stay positive lads. If Isaac Newton were still around he'd be the first to tell us that this will hit 8 quid once some sanity has returned.

Well folks, as long as this clever boy keeps knocking out the thick end of 40p divi per share each year, I freely confess, I'm not too bothered.

You would need to buy 9 shares in Lloyds to equal the divi one share in NWG will comfortably pay out for its trading year 2026.

Sooner or later, it will stop deying Newton's laws of gravity and take off.

Sp looks to have finally broken through 6 quid resistance level in the run-up to interims in 7 weeks time. The shares are getting quit a lot of coverage in the press at the moment which helps.

Interesting to contrast the ratings of NWB and Lloyds currently, certainly in divi yield terms...............Lloyds should pay out around 4.2p of divi in 2026, which puts its current yield at just over 4% on a share price of 100p. Compare that with our friend here...............NWB should pay out somewhere between 36p and 38p of divi in 2026 - lets settle on 37p, giving a prospective yield of 6.2% at 600p, about 50% higher than Lloyds.

iF NWG were to stand on the same 4.2% yield rating as Lloyds, its current sp would be 880p.............have a play with the figures if you're sceptical.

That level of discrepancy doesn't stack up.

Good to hear you're in good form, lucky, and, as usual, with plenty of positivity.

NWB's share price feels like pushibg wet string uphill, at the moment, with 6 quid proving a real psychological barrier. If I'm right about a 38p divi for this year, its prospective yield is 6.3% at £6 and should be on every income fund's 'top five' buy list.

I'm sure your 700p+ forecast is bang on for this year, but probably have to wait until the interims on 31 July.

Conditions for banks are pretty well perfect, at present, with the BoE's next interest rate move now very likely to be up, especially if inflation hits 6% later this year, so their interest margins widen massively.............always the political threats to the sector in the back ground of course, but should be OK providing Reeves survives as C OF E.

You're right not to have gone over to watch tonight's game......international footie can get a bit rough, these days. Watch it on the box with a few glasses of your vintage port. Last football match I attended in person, was a Rangers v Celtic 'derby' on the invitation of an old mate up there. We were in the relative safety of the directors' boxes and were still lucky to get out in one piece.............best of luck for tonight.

'....when NWB hits £10 in a few years...'. Not sure I've got that much time left Whight, so, hopefully, you could be a tad cautious here.

Worth looking at the newly released quarterly updated analysts' consensus forecasts just out on NWB's investor relations website.

Top end of the range for this year is eps of 76p (up 12% on 2025, so not pie in the sky stuff) and a total dps of 38p (based on a 2x divi cover - their stated policy). The measure of that will be in the half year figs end July.....if they pay 12.5p, then 38p for the full year is on the cards, on their one third/ two thirds usual split between interim and final.

On this basis, you can see where the 8 quid a share sp analysts' forecasts, currently whafting about, are coming from............we shall see..........if Burnham/Rayner get in, then all bets are off..............

Interesting that J P Morgan's CEO has said today that he will cancel his bank's planned brand new £3bn Canary Wharf HQ if there is any indication of higher bank taxes emerging from current political instability.

He announced this project last November, the day after Reeves' budget, when she ducked out of increasing the bank tax additional levy, so more than a coincidence, suggesting the two had a quiet dialogue together on the subject. The announcement suggested the project would create 8000 new city jobs and boost the financial services economy by around £10bn.

Just one reaction from a major overseas bank, before HSBC, S & C and Santader et al chip in. Financial services accounts for around one third of UK total GDP, so its a brave politician the roughs this sector up...................

Agreed Whight...Wes is a sharp, young Essex lad on the make and a true champagne socialist in the making, so unlikely to upset the City........two problems with him.....his majority in Ilford North is a miniscule 528, so in a general election, in the current mood of the nation, he'd get slaughtered, probably by anyone who Reform put up, including mickey mouse !!.

Secondly, in his formative years with the labour party, as a young sprog, he was very close to Mandelson, which probably seemed sensible at the time, but doesn't look too clever now. Imagine the digging the Daily Mail would gleefully do on that, if he ever got the top job.

Herein lies the awful problem.....much as it irks me to admit it, there is, currently, no viable alternative to Starmer, which indicates how low, in political terms, we've come. Hence I arrive at the odds on bet that, for the moment, bank profits look fairly safe and increasingly attractive.

If interest rates stay put, of even rise later this year, NWG will absolutely cream it. Interesting dilemma !!.

Fromage, this question now arises most weeks on this board and not without cause.

It was subject to huge speculation prior to last November's budget (what wasn't !!) and Reeves bottled out of doing it at the last minute. It's, clearly, acting as a black cloud over the sector and would have to be a near certainty if this government swings more leftwards. Worth pointing out that Farage has also mentioned he'd like to bring it in, as well, so not just lefty dogma.

Banks already pay an extra 3% levy on top of standard corp tax. This was originally 8% slapped on them by Alaistair Darling (who he) as a 'penance' following the 2008 financial crisis. It was reduced by Sunak, to the present 3% in his last budget in 2022. So there is already 'form' for bumping it back up to that level, before we even get into loony left mentality, which would probably bump it up much further, to maybe 15%.

If Reeves and Starmer can survive, it's only by generating some economic growth, so taxing banks out of sight isn't going to cut it, so if you have a meaningful exposure to this sector, say a little prayer for them tonight. I don't like them anymore than most sane individuals, but they're the only game in town right now.

This has definitely now got a 150p feel about it by y/end.

No doubt that comment will bring the profusion of professional bears, who frequent this board, out in full flow. Come on, lads, who is first to shoot me down !!. Maybe some short term profit taking tomorrow, but the underlying momentum is there.

Am I missing something, or do a meaningful portion of the contributors on this board permanently expect the share price to go down ?.

Is it too simple to suggest that if you hold that view, which is your perogative, why hold VOD's shares or even show an interest in them.

By all means, put forward rational comments that might affect the stock's short term performance, but if you don't think it's price will be higher in a year's time, it's simply illogical to hold it. Sorry lads, I'm too old to get involved in these squabbles, but I'm genuinely puzzled.

You can see where they're coming from. Last week's increassed income guidance from NWB's management must put this year's eps in the 77p area, which would mean around 38p of full year divi (33p in 2025), assuming it sticks to a 2x divi cover committment.

At the current sp, the prospective yield would be 6.8% and forward PER of just over 7x.

I know its not fashionable to be optimistic at the moment, but, come on !!!.

Relax everyone !.

Why are you spending time acknowledging this sad, young individual, who has got nothing better to do than sit in mum's back room pumping out his insults and negativity. He, clearly, needs to be prescribed stronger medication.

We're here to exchange useful views and info in order to make money..............that's where it starts and ends. Keep it up.

Badjob, your point is totally valid...........an extra tax hit hangs over this sector like a Damoclean sword, no doubt concerns will kick off again in the run-up to the next budget. Banks already pay an additional 3% levy above standard Corp tax rate as a legacy from 2008, but it was as high as 8% before Rishi rolled it back in his last budget as C of E. in 2022, I think.

Reeves has been constantly sucking up to the bank sector since they got into office and clearly chose to bottle out of this option in last year's budget, despite strong clamours to introduce a further levy. They desperately need some growth in the economy so my guess is she'll stick with the status quo as long as she keeps her job and that's a completely different crystal ball.

One other possibility to consider is that if NWB's sp continues to underperform, it's leaving itself open to being snapped up. Don't be too surprised if we see some strategic holding emerging from one of the bigger overseas banks................just a thought

We've sadly acquired a serious whacko on this board, lads, despite several years of useful and amusing discourse. Great shame.

Suggest we all shut down until it goes away.

Still time to short this Quilp, the sp will be back over £6 tomorrow. Show us what you're made of laddie.

Quilp, I love your conviction. Why not really impress me with something more tangible than hot air.

If you're that confident, why not short this baby out at the current price for, let's say, a grand a point. ahead of tomorrow's Q1 results announcement.

IG will do it for you, if you deposit 50 grand with them before the contract. I look forward to your progress.

Quilp, thank you for your feedback. Don't suppose you're related to our friend Inge, by any chance ?.

I preceded my comment 'glaringly cheap' with the word 'fundamentally,' which , possibly you overlooked. This is the approach professional analysts and fund managers take when valuing stocks and/or sectors and its based on a process of comparative valuation.

In NWB's case, its prospective price earnings ratio (PER), based on a consensus forecast of 2026 earnings per share (eps) of 76p, is currently 7.6 times (please say if I'm going too quickly for you). We can now compare that against any variety of stock market metrics to build up a picture of its relative cheapness or dearness IN FUNDAMENTAL TERMS..................so, let's do it for you.............the current PER on the FTSE is 17 and 16 on the wider All Share Index........so our stock is relatively cheap in the context of our own market.

Compared to the ratings of US bank shares, a more sensible comparison, J P Morgan stands on a PER of 18 and Goldman on around 16. Now you could say that the US mrket is overvalued but , having worked for several spells in the New York stock exchange, I can tell you that, apart from a generally more positive and upbeat attitude to markets, the Americans are much better educated on market metrics than we are, as aptly demonstrated by some of the crass comments occasionally on this board.

As a final respectful suggestion, can I recommend you acquire a copy of 'The Stock Market and Investment Analysis' by Richard Briston, a well known comprehensive but easily understandable tutor on market analysis. Best wishes with your future investing.

Decent sp reaction today following Barclays figs, but the whole thing feels like trying to push wet string uphill at present.

NWB's Q1 figs on Friday will be very good and should produce more analyst upgrades in the 8 quid region.

However, the last few results announcements, especially those brilliant y/end figs in Feb, have been followed by vicious sell-offs. Can't believe the punters who bought in on the 'Farage affair' haven't pretty well all got out, by now, so Friday's sp reaction is anyone's guess. Fundamentally, this stock is still glaringly cheap...........don't believe what the lady from the BoE tells you.

Interesting how people in these financial institutions, such as Sarah, feel the need to constantly preach negativity. Just looking at her boss, before he even opens his mounth, makes me reach for the malt whisky bottle.How on earth do they hope to inject confidence into investors in UK markets and industrial projects by pumping this stuff out all the time.

I suspect you don't get a job at our central bank, these days, without professing a lifelong admiration for Milne's depressing character, Eeyore

The BoE's own record on economic forecasting is appalling, they were far too late in lifting interest rates from zero, when inflation started to rocket following Putin's war and it's sloppy monitoring and controls on banks' lending policies led to the 2008 crash.

She, Bailey and the rest of the mob should be encouraging positivity and encouraging companies and investors to promote growth .