Member Info for Crossley

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/easyjet-form-8-opening-position-disclosure-otqwhuxiaiwy8ge.html

Afternoon Paul, hello Vistrians,

I know I’ve not been the greatest supporter of Vistry at times but I do keep tabs on their 'progress'. I like to run the figures here just as I do some of the other HB’s.

I completely agree with Banburyboy but have slightly different figures (and actually in favour of Vistry).

Last year I had the actual figure which counts to the covenant of £52m, and this year with an estimated average daily net debt of £780m (maximum worse case scenario?), the figure would come in at £49.14m (780m X 6.3%). It's only the net debt interest payable that counts to the covenant I believe. Required EBITDA floor £147.42m (*3 X 49.14m). Already retained £222m. Technical breach £-74.58m(loss), at *3.0x bank requirement and comfortably above the 2.5x credit rating threshold. This, with a gearing ratio of around 37% (<75% required) they look safely inside required parameters.

Breaking covenant ain't happening..

VTY FY 2025 report..."Net bank interest payable was down 10% to £52.0m as the lower blended rate on drawings of 6.3% (2024: 7.0%) more than offset the impact of a 5% rise in average daily net debt to £733.7m (2024: £698.1m)".

Spot on sg,

Any VTY holder should be deeply concerned. Vistry can ill afford further margin erosion after its recent performance. Under Burnham, shareholder returns would drift ever further out of reach. His policies risk turning Vistry into a low-margin state workhorse while simultaneously driving up the borrowing costs needed to service its daily net debt.

I can imagine what the chat is at the top table of Vistry.

Last time out the vote was 8-1 with Huw Pill voting to raise.

See if Megan Greene joins him this time round taking the vote to 7-2 hold..

Afternoon,

Floating along until we get news….

My money is firmly on the hear something on the afternoon of the 26th (offer) or hear nothing (time lapses) . We shall see?

You’re much better off taking notice of the 8.3’s than the 8.5’s. The 8.5’s are just market makers balancing for clients. It’s the 8.3’s you want to be watching for sentiment etc.

@luckylurker

SPCX up 20% right now…

Hi Thumper, try this equation..

It’s all about trying to get to MCAP to compare.

£7.89 (price at RI) 456.75m (shares in issue at RI). 758m (shares in issue now)

£7.89X456.75=£3,603.76 (MCAP).

£3,603.76/758=£4.7543

7.89x456.75=£3,603.758

£4.7543x758=£3,603.76

So, so long as you know a price, and shares in issue on a given date you can always compare if you want.

A £8 offer now in old money would be..

£8X758=£6,064.00/456.75=£13.28. Helpful I hope

Afternoon gents/ladies,

What are you trying to work out? Give me a share price and shares in issue at the time

…. On top of that we’ve CPI data and (for me) more importantly Core CPI data on the 17th along with the BOE base rate vote at 12pm on the 18th. While the rate looks cast iron to remain at 3.75% it’s the way the vote goes that could also impact sentiment. Last timeout the vote to ‘stick’ @ 3.75% was 8-1. More on this nearer the time..

On a personal note here, the ex div date is the 18th. So, all things being equal we shall see a 40p drop. That’s also the date of the Makerfield election (god help us!). Burnham has a 70-80% chance of winning. We will more than likely see bond yields bounce if and when that does happen. I think the result is expected early am of the 19th before markets open. That’ll have an affect to HB’s share prices..

I’ve got 10/07.

Ps: thanks for taking the time to respond yesterday Steve btw

For future reference, box 4b..

Hi 5 🖐️

It’s a DRIP purchase… (div reinvestment)

Ps, I didn’t say they were not slowing down at the moment. I said they haven’t fallen off a cliff and that Bellway at least, have reported higher H1 sales than last year and expect to sell around 600 more units this year compared to last. Also PSN and TW are projecting at least equal or higher units sold this year to last. Guess we shall see when the others report their half years soon.

Best of luck however you play it..

Afternoon konan,

Maybe some reasearch of the effects of this and what it’ll mean for Rightmove if they lose, and how they will pay for it…

A £1.5 billion collective legal claim, filed by Jeremy Newman at the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT), threatens to dismantle Rightmove's high-margin business model by challenging its 80% market share and pricing power, which are accused of abusing a dominant position between 2020 and 2026. A successful claim could force a permanent restructuring of subscription fees, wipe out significant cash reserves, and accelerate agent migration to competitors, fundamentally undermining the company's Average Revenue Per Advertiser (ARPA) growth strategy.

Time to completion has nothing to do with sales figures. That’s the system. And it’s not a claim, it’s factual. From Bellway’s trading update on Tuesday. They estimate they will sell 600 more homes this year than last and H1 figures are up 2.7% over last year.

“Transaction volume has fallen off a cliff”

Just Bellway selling then? 4700 sold at half time the other day and expecting 9300-9500 by year end..

Morning Steve,

Been a while since contact. Hope all is well bud?

I’ve asked this before but where’s your area these days Steve if you don’t mind?

Ps: (and you might want to DYOR).

I think they have 10 working days to declare their opening positions. So all in by Friday?