Where next for the NWG share price?16 Feb 2026 09:51
Morning, nice beginning to the week here. I've been in NWG since the huge drop on the day of Q3 results 2023 (-17% I think it was). Usually by now, and considering the gains, along with huge dividends I've received on my initial investment,18.9% this year, I would normally be long gone by now. This time I've taken a different approach with NWG. I've been assessing NatWests fair share price based on a constant 5% yield to help and try and keep me invested. Apart from a quick half hour or so, out at Q3 this year on the open, for a calculated trade, it has so far worked. After Q3 results, I'd a very bullish (at the time) price of £6.96 on FY results. I've now had the weekend to see where my calculations went wrong. Or did they? My attributable profits FY figure was set at £5.607b. The figure came in at £5.479b. A £128m difference. £121m of this can be put down to additional costs in Q4 this year to last. Notable items +£52m, Impairment loses -£136m and Litigation at -£37m. Taking all these figures into account I've still got a figure of £6.80. The attributable returns I'd based, was at the stated 50%, although the true pay out figure came in at 47.5%, hence fair value is now set at £6.50. I think this is more than fair enough, looking at the return to shareholders by way of buybacks. I've had a look at analysts figures for 2026, and calculated these with a 'measly' reduction in shares in issue of 116.3m, through the £750m buyback. My new target figure has now increased to £7.53, 24.67% above the current share price of £6.04. I'm happy the business is looking to move away, for now, from such huge sums towards buybacks and look to invest for the future towards fee-based income and diversify revenue away from a heavier reliance on net interest income. The future still looks bright to me.
Happy to be educated on any of the above, if there is any inaccuracies