RE: 425!3 Nov 2025 13:50
There are some people saying £6.20 + in time..
Let’s see what those results have to say, along with (more importantly?) future guidance. I’m going to pop one of my old posts back up, seems like an apt time..
My take on IAG
2 Aug 2025 12:50
Read all the news reported yesterday, Reuters etc. Lazy in my opinion. Didn’t really touch on any of the good points, that lie under the obvious. Here’s my take, for better or worse.
They’ll surely have to up their guidance in the next Q update. Way out in front of last year’s figures. Disappointed they didn’t this update. Just means it’s shoved down the line three months or so. Slightly over cautious imo. I’m sure it wasn’t stated now, only due to the uncertainties from outside influences. Not interested in dividends myself. Let’s carry on getting that net debt level down 27.3% a year and up the buybacks. If net debt can carry on being reduced at the rate of the last 12 months, they’ll be free of it in 2Y 8M. I did a bit of a run on the £10b (60% of MCap) return to shareholders over five years that one of the analysts (can’t remember which one at the moment) did, with the split being 70% buybacks and 30% dividends (as it is now) and the figure came to, (without the business growing, in any way), £5.69p. Purely based on the eventual shares in issue and the MCap remaining constant. Shares bought back over the five years with that ratio came in at 1.593 billion. Buybacks will need to average £1.4b per annum. Dividend return remaining consistent at £600m p/a, would pay out in year 5, 19.5p. 83p over the 5 years. Potential of
Buybacks/ dividend against dividends if that £10b was returned in dividends alone. Dividend alone £2.14. Then there’s 19% tax to be deducted. Total return per shareholder = £1.73. If it were to be returned 70% buyback, 30% dividend. 83p in divs, minus 19% tax = 67p. Plus the £1.94 SP appreciation = £2.61. Be careful what you wish for with those divs. The lesser the better as far as I’m concerned. Imagine where this has the potential to go to if those exceptional figures of yesterday are to carry on, and be realised? Let’s hope that analyst is on the button for a change with those returns to shareholders.
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