focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Afternoon MD
Possibly, with a rate cut or two. But look what a one percent yield drop does to the SP here,
£2.51 + 8.22%= 20.63p
Drop that 1% to 7.22% and your up over £2.85. Another 1% drop and your over £3.31. That is in my option while the SP has been so suppressed since the end of 2022. Once the rates are not there in bonds anymore the sp will recover here. So long as dividend can be maintained? In fact, looking at the sp in relation to the ftse values between the start of 2014 and end of 2021 working with a beta of one the sp should be between £2.90 and £3.37 with the ftse sitting where it is. I can only put this down to inflation and subsequently rate returns? Just my opinion but I’m sticking with it
Have a great afternoon
Afternoon,
I noticed LGen had a nice tick up (5-6p) when the data came out for Payrolls, Hourly earnings & unemployment rates from the states last week indicating rate cuts and again today when the CPI data was released at 1:30pm. Roll on rate cuts actually materialising for true fair value to return here
Morning tambo
They are in my fidelity managed portfolio. Assess every 12 months unless they want to change mid term. They are the better ytd performance figures from my 21 funds within the portfolio. I am not confident enough to take total control. I want five years of better performance between my S&S isa and my managed fund before I look into that. Still a lot of learning to do and I realise I will need to expand into funds if I do go down that route. Three years out of three that so far my isa (shares only) has outperformed my managed portfolio. See how it goes, it’s in fidelity’s highest risk category. I used to work for RR and quite a lot (120) retired on the same day. I monitor all portfolios taken out by some of the lads. Dolphin, Fidelity, psigma and various Royal London drawdown portfolios to name a few. Fidelity & RL have wiped the floor with all the others over the last three years, particularly in 2022 in RL’s case
Have a great weekend
Ps Zac
Best performing funds in the portfolio are, YTD:
CT American fund 9.69%
Fidelity Japan fund 7.99%
Invesco Asian (uk) Z 10.07%
Invesco Global Emerging markets 11.71%
Jupiter Merian North American Equity 11.8%
Morning folks
Hello strictly, glad you have moved over to the sector. I believe a wise move. Sold Bdev at the start of the year, RDW on the day of the merger announcement & BWY on the day before results. Only holding TW at the moment!
Zac, I too took early retirement in 2020 and spent a year extending the family home. With the additional time available to me I decided to give this game a more serious go. Only hold individual shares, no funds.
2022 -3.03%
2023 39.64%
YTD 24.12%
I stated at the end of last year this was my worse performing share last year. This year, it’s bottom but two. Only Wimps & EZY below. IAG & NWG way out in front.
Holding here for the dividend as it plays a large part in my, hopeful 17.4% average return per year. Sitting on a little more cash than usual with the HB sales although doubled my holding on EZY the other day @£5.09
My managed (Fidelity) portfolio is at 7.89% YTD
I would seriously start considering a new life overseas
https://www.statista.com/statistics/237529/price-to-income-ratio-of-housing-worldwide/
Morning Meconopsis,
For me, I think it’ll be a shrewd move by Bdev, longer term. I consider BWY & RDW to be the better run companies on paper out of the six I follow. Redrow’s figures certainly look better than Bdev’s lately and I can see the logic in the merger myself when things improve. Even at the lower end of 180m pre tax profits for RDW it equates to 54p per share. Having said that I did sell Redrow yesterday, sadly. PSN wise, I’m expecting around £1.10 of pre tax per share, so I guess we shall have to see what their future policy is, maybe 40-60p for the year?I was encouraged by their H2 figures over H1 (+34%) Then there’s the additional tax burden coming in. TW have a slightly different approach of….
Our Ordinary Dividend Policy is to return c. 7.5% of net assets to shareholders annually. As I stated on the LGen board over Christmas, one of the reasons I moved over from Bdev to Wimps, along with their estimated profits for the year (470m, which would give 13.3p per share). Personally, I think TW’s dividend might suffer the least? Looking for a re-entry point here when as and when I see fit
Morning,
Certainly a different approach from when Jeff was in charge. The days of paying out nearly all profits to shareholders has passed (as stated) along with Jeff leaving and lining his pockets with share price related bonuses. (Remember him storming off a TV interview when quizzed about it?) Will we see 3X book value again, maybe not? Based on unit figures, the trading update, stating margins in H2 will be similar to H1, I’m expecting pre tax profits around 350m. Then there is the additional tax implications (6% I believe? ) kicking in. Hopefully no one offs to take that lower. Only my guess though.
Important week ahead kicking off with Bdev, RDW, & BWY on the 7th, 8th & 9th. Interested to see what Redrow have to say, if their lower chain cancellations has improved any since their November update
Here’s a link to previous if interested….
https://investors.natwestgroup.com/share-data/equity-ownership-statistics.aspx
Afternoon Dowsie
I initially bought my first house with my best mate as we both wanted to get on the property ladder in early 1988.It was the only way to get in. I was 20 and just come out of my time as an apprentice at RR. My initial payments were lower and over 25 years. I think there was no such thing as fixed rates back then, or not much interest, but like I said the £546 was in ‘90. I believe the BOE rate was 15.5% so why I was paying £546 I’m unsure. Maybe it was something to do with the good old indemnity?
That was my highest payment. Think it was 08/91. Had a good year or two of the rise in house prices at the back end of the eighties then, well, we know what happened then.
Those figures represent a figure of 18.5%!
In comparison, still owe just over 255k with interest only payments of £353 per month.
Meconopsis, thanks for the reply on Friday. I’m pleased it was a best guess. Having built an extension of my own.
That doesn't leave much headroom is they run low on disposable income.
Might I add, there’s also the mortgage charter that’s been launched by the government that pretty much all lenders have signed up to. You can extend the length of your mortgage, switch to interest only. On the average of 189.5k @4% that would still enable you to live in your own home for £630 a month if needs be. Things really are not comparable to the 1990’s. Attitudes have changed. Oh, I remember my 35k mortgage in the late eighties/ early nineties when I was twenty something myself.
The subject could quite easily read
Housing market still looks uncertain although H2 figures have improved over H1 figures for both TW & PSN.
Maybe that’s not negative enough for some though?