Member Info for Crossley

Afternoon LeeRex,

Yeah, but the last one was 2.95p and the next one will be about 2.95p. That’s why I said forward. What you are likely to realistically get in the future?

Hi Lee,

If you take the forward it’s 2.95p. So two of those are 5.9p.

The equation is div/sp x100=. So, 5.9/76.2x100=7.743%. You can even type it in a post like this and your phone works the equation, just like a calculator, which is pretty cool. On an I phone anyway.

Evening Smiffy, all good I hope.

This should get the cogs in motion? I believe the lender can demand their lent shares back at any moment. They are your property. They’ve only been lent. If they were yours and you’d lent them, would you want them back so you could take part in the vote?

Evening,

https://www.dividendmax.com/united-kingdom/london-stock-exchange/banks/barclays-plc/dividends

Best of luck moving forward..

You cannot compare the share price in 2019 against today’s share price nc. You have to re-calculate for the RI

Wingnutter,

Even your adult content warning didn’t prepare me for that ungodly sight.,

Morning Thumper. Hope you are well.

Apologies for the shorthand—8:30am is peak school-run time for me, so it was either a quick post or no post at all. If I’d had the time, I probably should have phrased it as: "Castlelake successfully engineered a way to deploy massive capital and achieve their strategic goals without violating EU ownership limits."However described, it all adds up to the same outcome. It was a structured workaround needed to meet regulations and achieve Castlelake's financial goals.

For me personally, they’ll already have all this sorted. They’ll know what they have planned and what they are willing to pay (all parties included) if they go down the consortium route. Castlelake would only have been able to build a 3% stake before notifying the markets anyway.

Trev (and others if interested)

Check out Castlelake and SAS Scandinavian Airlines and how they got round the 50.1% obstacles.

A lot to do but can be achieved

Any offer would be for "no less than" 403.23p a share.”

This is because when Castlelake were building their 2.14% stake the highest price they paid was £4.0323. Rule 6.1 of the takeover code. Their highest buying price building that 2.14% becomes the new floor. That’s how I thought it worked?

While the Bank of England base rate remains stuck at 3.75%, it’s the swap rates that investors should be focusing on right now. A ceasefire will see swap rates drop off quite rapidly, which in turn will see offered mortgage rates fall in tandem. For me, this is the immediate shot in the arm investors in the homebuilding sector are looking for.

Morning Meconopsis, Strictly.

Maybe a conversation to be had off-piste...?

This is something of great interest to me. What I said I’d do within this sector at the start of the year turned out a completely different outcome. It’d be good to compare some current thoughts?..

Evening David,

This is a similar situation that I was highlighting with RELX back around the start of March. The stock was seeing serious downward pressure daily from 2:30pm that almost switched on a sixpence. The stock then seeing huge support from 2:30pm. You could even see how the volumes on the US open was having an effect, when looking at Relx ADR (the US listing), while watching their live price

Experian plc on Wednesday announced a new $1 billion share repurchase programme valid to June 30, 2027, as the global data and technology company posted record full-year revenue of $8.45 billion for the year ended March 31, and forecast organic revenue growth of 6-8% for 2027.

The new buyback follows $725 million in share repurchases executed during fiscal 2026, including $196 million from the fiscal 2026 programme and $529 million from an additional $1B programme announced in Jan.

Experian said it expects double-digit Benchmark earnings per share growth in fiscal 2027, supported by total revenue growth of 8-11% and Benchmark EBIT margin expansion of around 50 basis points at constant exchange rates.

The fiscal 2027 organic growth guidance midpoint of 7% came in below company-compiled consensus of 8%.

"FY26 was a record year for Experian, with performance at the upper end of our expectations and strong strategic momentum," Chief Executive Brian Cassin said.

“We see the results as broadly inline with expectations. While the mid-point of the organic growth guide is a touch below consensus, we see overall company guidance on revenues, EBIT, interest and share count mechanically implying limited changes to consensus EPS, all else equal,” GS said.

Total revenue for the year rose 12% at actual exchange rates from $7.52 billion, a slight beat against analyst consensus of $8.41 billion, according to LSEG data from 19 analysts.

Organic revenue growth was 8%, in line with company-compiled consensus. Benchmark EPS rose 15% to 179.8 U.S. cents, against company-compiled consensus of 179.2 U.S. cents.

Benchmark EBIT from ongoing activities was $2.41 billion, up 15% at actual exchange rates, with a margin of 28.6%, up 50 basis points at ex rates.

The margin result was above analyst consensus of 28.4%. Statutory profit before tax rose 26% to $1.95 billion. Basic EPS increased 29% to 164.5 U.S. cents.

North America, which represented 67% of group revenue, posted organic growth of 10%. Latin America grew 8% organically, accelerating from 4% in the first half to 12% in the second half.

The UK and Ireland posted organic growth of 2% and EMEA and Asia Pacific grew 5%, with that region’s Benchmark EBIT margin rising to 6.7% from 3.4% in the prior year. Latin America was the sole region where margin declined, falling 120 basis points to 30.8%.

Consumer Services delivered organic revenue growth of 9%, with Benchmark EBIT margin expanding 220 basis points to 29.6%. Business-to-Business organic revenue growth was 8%. Benchmark operating cash flow was $2.22 billion, representing 93% conversion of Benchmark EBIT. Return on capital employed was 17.2%, up from 16.6%. Net debt to Benchmark EBITDA stood at 1.7 times.

Experian declared a full-year dividend of 69.25 U.S. cents per share, up 11% from 62.50 U.S. cents. For fiscal 2027, the company guided net interest expense of $250-$260 million, against $185 million in fiscal 2026, and 2026, and a Benchmark tax r

As you say, sell the news, or slightly below consensus, met consensus, in line with, etc, blah blah blah. Sometimes record numbers aren’t enough?..

Not my particular specialty but to my eyes EXP have smashed it on all metrics. North America a slight decrease from H2 from H1 but still…

Any thoughts?

Following today’s Reuters and Sky news about loosening the post-crisis ring-fencing rules, we are likely looking at a solid catalyst for UK banks. While it won't impact this year's numbers, forward-looking analyst models should start revising outer-year EPS upwards. BARC and NWG have the most structural friction to shed here, making them prime candidates for price target upgrades. No clue about the immediate share price volatility, but for the longer term, it should be a great catalyst.

I’ve been looking into all the hurdles facing a complete buyout that would arise for Legal & General.

Aren’t L&G firmly in Tier 2 for a total takeover—just a step below the politically untouchable Tier 1 giants Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems—making a full acquisition politically and regulatory very difficult?

Using Aviva as a footprint, wouldn’t something along the lines that Aviva decided to go down under Amanda Blanc be a more realistic outcome, benefit L&G (and its shareholders) and any potential outside parties, and have a far better realism of being achieved?

While a comprehensive corporate purchase faces insurmountable political barriers, a targeted asset carve-out presents a highly achievable, lucrative catalyst for everyone involved?

I’d be interested in others thoughts that are more savvy on L&G than myself

Evening TF,

Totally agree with you all the way up to, so the business..(and it's refreshing to read someone who says all the former for a change). So, we have Vistry with that paper starting point of £5.70 per share.

The reported TNAV only accounts for the polished year-end debt of £144.2m (oh if every days debt level could only be £144m instead of just December the 31st hey?). But Vistry’s true Average Daily Net Debt is £733.7m (latest data, although that's even been stated to rise further today)There's an extra £589.5m (£1.86 per share) of actual circulating bank debt that must be cleared to zero before shareholders touch their pennies.

Vistry holds £720m (£2.26 per share) in Land Creditors. In a wind-down, you cannot sell those land parcels to raise cash until you clear those bills upfront. If you don't pay the landowners immediately, you forfeit the legal title deeds entirely.

The £324.4m (£1.02 per share) legacy fire remediation provision cannot be ignored. The UK High Court and Building Safety Act mandate that these safety funds are ring-fenced and paid out immediately, and before any equity is distributed.

The Bottom Line:

Subtract those three non-negotiable items from the £5.70 TNAV:

£5.70 - £1.86 (Daily Debt) - £2.26 (Land Debt) - £1.02 (Fire Safety) = 56p.

Once you add standard fire-sale haircuts on the remaining land assets to get rivals to buy those assets quickly, that 56p shrinks down to pennies. The TNAV floor is an illusion because the senior liabilities swallow the entire equity, the moment you turn everything off.

It's face immediate wipeout in a fire sale, or tough it out to rebuild margins and shrink that debt.

I'd be more than happy to be corrected, but that's how I read it?

Evening TF,

As to my other post, trade it out and return the capital to shareholders.

But, actual (daily net) debt, land creditors and fire remediation costs must be subtracted before we even see a penny.

I’m not dissing VTY or yourself btw..