Member Info for Crossley

Same path again Reg, here?..

Ps Reg (RM), I’ve posted a personal on BWY

Afternoon RM, hope you’re well.

I know that! Seems some are in the dark though. I’d estimate a 38% haircut roughly, you’d about get your 71 pence back…

Assets minus froth (intangibles) £1.39b. Minus 50% is about £695m. Liabilities £702m…

Vinci’s U.K. assets, including Gatwick and Edinburgh, also face a high risk as the U.K. sources roughly 60% of its jet fuel imports from the Middle East and has low domestic production.

For airlines, the outlook is murky. Fuel supply is only guaranteed to mid-to-late May, after which visibility drops sharply. If shortages materialise, JPMorgan expects capacity cuts to begin in June, starting with domestic and marginal routes.

The bank estimates that a 1% reduction in summer capacity translates to roughly a 2% hit to full-year EBIT on average.

U.K.-focused carriers face the sharpest exposure. Jet2 has around 50% of its capacity in the U.K., followed by easyJet at over 30% and IAG at over 20%. Ryanair’s CEO has flagged a low-to-moderate risk that 10–25% of its fuel supply could be at risk in May and June.

Afternoon Globex,

it's down to a fraction of the tangible book. Even in a distress firesale situation where we apply a 50% haircut to book, that's still in excess of market cap as it stands today.

Are you quite sure about this?

Mudja,

Much appreciated, thanks for taking the time. I get where you’re coming from.

Best of luck moving forward

Morning,

Mudja, May I ask? Are you referring to resolution 2, 18 or another?

To others, might Crst go under? They’re certainly priced like it this morning. The share is currently in auction after their update, and down around 40%. Looks like they’re scrambling for funds. Their update should be read by anyone that has an interest in this sector.

Not saying anything like that will happen here or across the rest of the sector, although their state should be noted..

Straits are open. Let the oil flood through and the SP here really get flowing..

That sentiment has improved towards Vistry since the initial knee jerk reaction to Adams appointment/ Gregs step down, with the SP (at the moment) up 9% since that intra day low. That’s outperforming the rest of the sector over that timescale, and by quite a few percentage points. Is this sentiment change now for the longer term?..

Evening Denby,

Seeing as there were 15m (volume) attributed to sells at 16:35, across two trades, that balances it up a bit?..

Bigjock.

It’s Reuters that said that. I copied and pasted it, that’s all. I thought you might have learned your lesson last time after Taylor Wimpey. Called me names there too when I said Persimmon was a better bet. I was right though wasn't I. And then you show up on the PSN board after buying in. It’s you that’s the fool. Take a read on the news above you plum

Morning Learning,

Might I suggest the share price reaction this morning is less to do with the appointment, and maybe more of a reaction to this, particularly the second paragraph?..

“British homebuilder Vistry brought forward a leadership change on ⁠Monday, appointing divisional head Adam Daniels as chief executive with ⁠immediate effect, as the company contends with ​margin pressure, weak demand and investor scepticism over its strategy.

Greg Fitzgerald, who had led the group for nine years and was due to step aside as chair in May while remaining CEO for ​up to a ‌year, will leave both roles immediately by mutual agreement, the company said”.?

Persimmon is certainly the best, best for profits (compared to MCap size), margins, and protecting those profit margins moving forward. It’s not cheap compared to the rest of the sector though, although not cheap for the above reasons. Still have PSN to be in the top two performers within the sector (share price performance wise) for 2026, a continuation of 2025, along with Bellway. The new dark horse is Berkeley.

Still see BTRW and Wimps struggling. I’m seeing Wimps’s margins falling further. I won’t bother posting this there as I did last year. Didn’t go down to well..

Afternoon Don,

Have a look at the daily graph (VTY) then compare to say Bellway (BWY). Similar? Then have a look at the uk 10Y bond yield graph. Virtually opposite?

Not before he’s ‘earned’ a few more quid…

The outgoing boss of Vistry saw his pay more than double last year even though Britain's biggest affordable housing provider built fewer homes after issuing a series of profit warnings that have sent its share price tumbling.

Executive chairman Greg Fitzgerald made £2 million, up from £875,000 in 2024, accounts just filed show.

On the date that the cash is received.

Or alternatively,

Final Dividends: Become a legal liability/debt when declared (usually at the AGM) and are taxable on that date.

Interim Dividends: Become taxable when they are actually paid or credited to the shareholder, as they can be revoked before payment.

Tax Year: The payment date determines which tax year the dividend falls under.

Company Liability: Dividends only become a "payable" liability for a company when they are properly declared with board approval and sufficient profits are available

Just incase folks don’t have access to article

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/iran-war-threatens-housebuilding-giant-080000525.html

Can thank RBC for this

Berkeley ain’t helped..

After all that, made my final of four purchases to be back fully in this morning. Worth while, let’s see where we go from here..

3.6% interest , I like that one:

3.75% with IG and no fees if you trade enough. Heard a moan about 212 with auto trades not going thru fully, so contemplating moving to IG…