Member Info for Crossley

Afternoon guys and girls. By no means am I any kind of expert, although, on a personal level, I will be a little disappointed if the final dividend comes in any lower than between 25 & 26 pence, looking at the financial performance and expected results. Even taking the additional shares into consideration, expected adjusted op profits look they'll be up 9% per share? Along with the (slight) expected increase in cash remittance, and solvency II own fund gen expected to increase, I’m hopeful. I too added near to close yesterday, even though it has increased my average a fair bit, up from £4.74 to £5.23 now. I'll also be adding further next week if there is any further drop. I'll be more than happy if Amanda has a good few years left in her yet.Happy to be educated on any of the above. Have a great weekend all

Hello Blue_boy,

Somebody asked the same question a while ago on another board...At 11am UK bond rates started to climb quite rapidly. EG: the 10Y rates were up 1.75% between 11 & 1135am. They have started to recede since..

In fact, if you compare the 10Y bond graph today with LGen’s daily price movements, they are virtually the exact opposite. I’ve since read Andy Burnham has been opening his mouth?

Me too Rob. This was one of my better performers last year.

While I am here, May I ask jatw, did you have the chat with your fund manager as to why he sold your MNG holdings? Thanks for your valued input recently over on the Prudential chat. That was actually, my best performer last year

Hi Rob, hope you are well. They’ve only really stated .. “Given our confidence in the outlook for the business, we are moving to a progressive dividend policy, starting with a 2% increase in the 2024 Total dividend per share.” Most analysts I believe have projected 2, or around 2% increases. Don’t get me wrong, I’d be happy with more. Maybe to get to 8% on the current SP might be a bit of an ask though?

Afternoon, I thought M&G had stated a policy of expecting to increase dividends by 2% per annum. So, if that’s the case, the 20.6p expected for 2026 will yield 6.75% on a SP of £3.05?

Anyone know why markets have started reversing at 11 ?

At 11am UK bond rates started to climb quite rapidly. EG: the 10Y rates were up 1.75% between 11 & 1135am. They have started to recede since..

It’s numbers I look to. Seems quite a bit more work for relatively the same outcome. Units up (6%). Selling price up (5.01%). Profits up £4m (0.96%). At least profits look like they’ll be met.

As for forward looking…

Order book down (6.8%). Private homes order book down (9.53%). Affordable homes order book down (4.24%). Land bank down 5k plots. Cash down £222m. Profit margin down from 12.2% to 11% (-9.83%). Profit margin drop is a big shame imo. Hope the market is kind to you this morning. Best of luck moving forward

Think Rio have until 5/2 to make a formal approach

Painful open coming, back to the 50’s?..

Lasted a few minutes then turned off. Even after that length there were flaws. Checked the history of Gorillawhatever name. 5 months history. One upload, then about 50 uploads of an all of a sudden expert on Housebuilding and the rental sector in the last two months. I’m sure Persimmon would have learned their lesson and not splurged another… Land spend in the third quarter was £127m (2024: £123m) of which £46m related to the settlement of land creditors… between August and November 2025

Ps, I sold in February on results day last year. Bought back in April, sold a few recently, haven’t heard anything so far, and expect not to. You can clarify this yourself on the net…

Best of luck for ‘26

If you’re a UK resident and the shares are held in an ISA they are free from CGT. The 19% dividend tax is automatically taken at source (before you receive the monies)

Goldman Sachs noted significant positive earnings revisions since October 2024, with 2026 estimated net profit revised upward by 30% in consensus estimates and 17% in their projections. These developments provide investors with recent insights into NatWest’s financial performance and market perception.

Morning, Happy new year and all that. Here’s the US version which is a bit more detailed..

Investing.com - Barclays downgraded NatWest Group PLC (NYSE:NWG) from Overweight to Equalweight and set a price target of GBP7.00, citing limited upside potential to consensus earnings per share and possible downside risks to share buybacks. This comes despite NatWest’s impressive 87.92% price return over the past year, with shares currently trading at $17.78, just 0.98% below their 52-week high of $18.19.

The downgrade comes despite Barclays acknowledging ongoing tailwinds from hedge repricing and above-consensus volume growth for the British banking group. The research firm expects NatWest to lower its target CET1 ratio to 13% from the current 13-14% range. According to InvestingPro data, NatWest is currently "quickly burning through cash" with a negative free cash flow yield of -39%, which may support Barclays’ cautious stance.

Barclays noted this reduction would unlikely fully offset headwinds to risk-weighted assets from higher risk-density lending and regulatory inflation. Combined with efficiency gains becoming harder to realize, these factors could reduce consensus CET1 estimates by 50-90 basis points.

The research firm now forecasts below-consensus buybacks for NatWest with a cash return yield of 8-9%, only modestly ahead of the sector average of 7%. Barclays views the shares as offering reasonable value at approximately 8x 2027 estimated price-to-earnings or 8x 2028 estimated, compared to European banks trading at 9-10x. InvestingPro data shows NatWest currently trades at a P/E ratio of 10.28 with a notably low PEG ratio of 0.36, suggesting the stock is trading at a low P/E relative to near-term earnings growth. Investors seeking deeper valuation insights can access NatWest’s comprehensive Pro Research Report, part of the 1,400+ US equities covered with in-depth analysis on the platform.

While NatWest continues to offer attractive compounding benefits, with cumulative tangible net asset value per share growth and rising dividends worth about 40% of market capitalization by 2028, Barclays now sees the risk/reward profile as more balanced and expressed preference for Lloyds. NatWest currently offers a dividend yield of 2.8% with impressive dividend growth of 60.45% in the last twelve months, according to InvestingPro , which features 9 additional ProTips on NatWest’s financial health and growth prospects.

In other recent news, NatWest Group PLC reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, exceeding analyst expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.5276, surpassing the forecast of 0.4243, which represents a 24.35% surprise. Revenue also outperformed projections, reaching 5.55 billion dollars compared to the anticipated 5.49 billion dollars. In another development, Goldman Sachs downgraded NatWest stock from Buy to Neutral. The downgrade was accompanied by a slight reduction in the price target to GBP6.65 fro

So, that should be $1.2B this year and $1.3B next if things go to plan?

Generally. That extra £81m on land is still a little light, but a step in the right direction. Then hope there are no more nasty announcements regarding remediation payments.

Now, I did throw my toys out of the pram here last January and sold all my shares. Let’s see if TW can start to entice me back, firstly by announcing those £424m of profits, a shift towards more land purchases, and a more realistic dividend payout ratio. As ever, happy to be corrected on any of the above.

Morning, and happy new year TW investors. Good luck for the year ahead. Stt1, while I agree with a lot of what you are saying, I think you’re being a bit unfair to TW. After all, they are taking a large amount of cash out of the business to return to shareholders each year, while Vistry, well, are not. Yes a small buyback, but no dividend, and nothing close to the £331m TW will be taking away if they stick to their current policy, this year, if payments match last year. That is why I believe, you need to look at total returns. These are the figures for the calendar year just gone, that include dividend payments etc..

PSN 20.2%

BWY 15.88%

VTY 13.52%

BKG 1.02%

TW - 4.01%

BTRW - 8.31%

CRST - 12.76%

FTSE 22.28%

For 2026, what path for Taylor Wimpey? I was quite shocked at the lack of content in their Q3 update. When you read the last few years (Q3 updates that is) they were full of figures, this year, nothing. Hope that’s not an omen, for things to come. H1, 5210 homes delivered, for a profit of £161m and margins of 9.7%, that £161m is after the £20m hit. Total UK average selling price (ASP) on completions decreased by 1.3% to £313k (H1 2024: £317k). If they hit the top end of units expected (10800, excluding JV), that would generate 5590 units for H2. TW are expecting their UK average selling price to vastly increase in H2 to £340k. That would generate £1.9b in sales (H1 £1.654b) They’d need the profit margin in H2 to greatly improve over H1, to get to that magic figure of £424m for the full year, which Wimps are claiming, mainly achieved by that increase in ASP, and pushing margins up. As I’ve stated before, I don’t believe TW are replacing their land as quickly as they are building on it. -3750 plots average per year, over the last four years. That needs rectifying. When you look at the performance figures above for the calendar year 2025, PSN and BWY are the two that are actually increasing their land bank holdings, through investing in the business.

TW’s dividend policy….

Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. The first priority is always maintaining a strong balance sheet. The next priority is to invest in the business in work in progress (WIP) and in land to drive growth. After this, the priority is the ordinary dividend payment before evaluating special dividends or buybacks of shares with any surplus cash.

Our Ordinary Dividend Policy is to pay out 7.5% of net assets or at least £250 million annually throughout the cycle.

It appears TW have started to drift away from their priorities and where dividend payments sit in the order of those priorities, and personally, I don’t think it would do TW any harm, or their share price performance, to initiate the £250m payout option. That would still generate a dividend payment of 7p and a sector leading return of 6.58% (based on a SP of £1.063) and leave an extra £81m to start to replenish that lost land, while still sticking to their policies

The one thing to keep an eye on, and it did surprise me when I stumbled over it is the net debt,

Net debt and : net debt to EBITDA,

Q3 6009: 0.8

H1 5459: 0.7

Q1 6129: 0.9

Is there anyway to find out the current shorts for LGEN or any stock?

You could just scroll to the top of the page, or any other on LSE, and click more LGen info, then short positions…

Afternoon MadMat,

Whether the yield remains at 7-8% (7.55%) or not remains to be seen. But, I fully expect PHNX to increase their payout to 56p next year. Hop over to the Persimmon board for the answer to your previous question elsewhere…