Member Info for Crossley

TopFCA,

I’d give that post a little more thought if I was you..

Live Charts calculates daily percentage changes using its broker feed's specific system clock.On Tuesday, active WTI crude oil futures jumped roughly 4% to settle near $102 per barrel.If the automated data provider on Live Charts fails to refresh the baseline settlement value for Wednesday's session, the system misinterprets the start of today's flat market as a "4% drop" relative to stale data packets.

https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil

I don’t believe it is but there should be some update with a link to relevant Q&A’s later on, on VTY’s website?..

When I first read the update this morning, it looked quite worrying. But after a re-read, the net debt numbers jumped out at me as the main current chink of light, and my main focus for share price appreciation once the dust settles. After a bit of digging, here's my thoughts: make of them what you will..

The Huge Analyst Disconnect

Analysts were widely modelling a year-end net debt position of £21m. Management upgrading their language this morning to "in excess of £100m" net cash is a massive, deliberate pushback against those forecasts. If they deliver a swing from net debt to a £100m+ positive cash balance, it forces the market to completely re-model Vistry's fundamental balance sheet strength.

The Buyback "Illusion"

In March, there was only £29m left of the £130m program. The update states they have now paused the buyback with @ £26m remaining. Stopping such a small amount doesn't single-handedly swing a balance sheet to £100m+ cash. This pause is primarily a symbolic gesture from new CEO Adam Daniels to show institutional investors 100% capital discipline, while they wait for heavy H2 completion cash to land.

The H1 Debt & Interest

(What I'd hope from the AGM)

If they are guiding for mid-range full-year profits of around £225m, the seasonal dynamics imply an H1 average daily net debt peaking in the £780m–£790m range.

Last year, the financing costs were £52m, meaning this H1 peak creates an extra interest drag of roughly £1.8m. I don't see this as problematic. A peak in the high-£780ms is easily covered by their £1.13bn total facilities. This near-term interest drag should, completely rebalance in H2 as the average daily debt balance begins dropping through the year, then to hit that +£100m year-end cash target.

The market is panicking on the H1 headline, but the fundamental anchor appears intact, If what they're saying is kosher. That's the big line, if they're being completely transparent. Let's see what guidance comes from the AGM at noon.

Just one more thing (if it interests anyone)..

According to the latest RNS announcement on 12 May 2026, IAG has fixed the Final Repurchase Price at €145,685.11 per €100,000 principal.Based on the conversion terms of the 2028 bonds, the equivalent price paid in GBP per share is approximately £4.11.

One last thing…

The Purchaser announces that EUR 819,000,000 in aggregate principal amount of the Bonds, which represents 99.3% of the aggregate principal amount of the Bonds currently outstanding, were validly tendered in the Invitation. The Purchaser accepts all of the Bonds validly tendered for purchase pursuant to the Invitation.

The TR-1 (16:56) looks like a more permanent vote of confidence in Persimmon?

Let mine go around £4.09.

Hoping I’ve made a mistake and it carries on rising for all current holders. Best of luck moving forward. If they do fall, I’ll no doubt be back

TU 7am

AGM 12pm

If the SP keeps rising, it’ll surely put more and more pressure on those bond holders to accept as the day goes on. This could be a sell at near close. The SP so far today looks (to me at least) that those bond holders are locking in today in anticipation of the 85% threshold being met

Ps: if 85% agree and IAG take them up on their offers (the price is tempting enough for IAG) they are not committed to buy?

Basically, (I think?)

IAG are offering to buy those bonds early. The price (final) will be determined by close today. If 85% agree, IAG have the option to buy the remaining 15% at cost. Hence my previous post. As I say, I think. You might wanna check all this?..

Buy shares directly after and avoid that chance?

Or before in anticipation?….

Morning jatw,

I cannot see any way that 85% threshold will not be met, can you? Why would you take the chance of being forced to sell cheaper? You may as well just take the premium and buy shares directly after and avoid that chance?

It’s a sure sign of confidence from IAG, particularly at this time..

Morning all, hello Paul, and hope this gives Strike some pointers to do their own due diligence (more so than the analysts views on TW & PSN?)..

Paul, I was looking at a more immediate timescale, although, as for me, and I presume others?, the sector looked like it was improving, for some more than others, since last August. Interest rates were looking like falling further still, units were up and margins (for a few) were improving. All was beginning to look a little more rosey, until Feb 28. How different things are looking now. When looking at the prices on Investing.com on 31/8 and the highs for the sector (between Feb 4 and Feb 18 this year) since that date, which I did long hand (AI cannot grasp this can it!). I've got, name (gain from 31/8: date in Feb of those highs) and falls since those dates,to the close Thursday.

BTRW (10.5%:4) 35%

TW (18.1%:12) 29.5%

BKG (20.4%:12) 24.4%

BWY (23.1%:13) 31%

PSN (41%:18) 29.1%.

Hopefully, this shows PSN, and to a lesser extent BWY, were well on their way, and ahead of the other three, particularly BTRW and TW in their recoveries before the outlook change since the end of August last year.

I've already posted my thoughts, but, to reiterate, I'm still seeing BTRW's margins struggling, along with Wimps (I cannot see £400m coming after reading their update and listening to their Q&A. ASP down between 1 & 1.5%, incentives over 6% and their reliance on their southern division for revenue, where house prices and land values are struggling most. 6%+ incentives on the prices of those homes down there is some serious dough). If these average sales prices remain below last year and incentives remain this high, I can personally see another adjustment to TW's return to shareholders policy. For myself, it's PSN for their better protected and superior margins (except BKG, but that's now another story since their surprise update, shift in policy and their footprint/model) ASP, geographical footprint to where the money in the sector is to be made (NE & Scotland) this year, along with their vertical build business, that'll help keep that adjusted operating profit margin elevated. And BWY for their (hopefully) next best margins in the sector, great value (tnav) and like Persimmon, their geographical footprint, that'll recover those recent 30 odd percent falls soonest. I personally see the geographical areas these two are concentrated, will have a much more positive effect on margins than the others mentioned here. All this is only my own personal thoughts, and appreciate others will see things in a completely different light. I'd be interested to hear if others are seeing similar recovery trends, or if you're looking at different metrics entirely for your returns?

Longtime,

I’ve NWG with HSBC and AJ Bell, The funds cleared in HSBC, on the morning of the due date, and before AJ Bell

A penny out!…

UK domestic banks held “buy” ratings across the board at Jefferies, even as the sector de-rated more than 15% since January despite earnings upgrades of similar magnitude, with political uncertainty over a potential Labour leadership change weighing on share prices.

Jefferies raised medium-term earnings per share forecasts by roughly 5%, lifting terminal base rate and five-year swap rate assumptions to 3.5% from the start of 2027, up 25 basis points from prior estimates set in February, though still 50-75 basis points below the current yield curve.

Barclays saw its price target raised to 590p from 570p, while NatWest Group was trimmed to 730p from 750p and OneSavings Bank cut to 700p from 780p. Lloyds Banking Group held at 125p and Paragon Banking Group was lowered to 1,000p from 1,060p. All five carry "buy" ratings.

The structural hedge tailwind remained a central pillar of the bull case. Domestic banks ran a combined hedge notional of £684 billion in Q1 2026, generating a yield of 2.80% against five-year forward rates averaging 4.49%, a gap that Jefferies said could add roughly 40% to current profits, or 7 percentage points to return on tangible equity. Q1 2026 sector ROTE reached 16%.

Private sector credit growth accelerated to 4.9% year-on-year through March 2026, with large non-financial corporate lending rising a "staggering" 11% and three-month annualised growth hitting 6.5%, according to Bank of England data cited in the report.

Mortgage lending was up 3% year-on-year and SME lending rose 3.7%, ending 45 consecutive months of net repayments.

The Bank of England’s Scenario C, which assumed Brent crude peaking at $130 per barrel and sustaining above $100 through late 2028, showed UK GDP growth remaining positive throughout, bottoming at 0.3% in Q1 2027, with unemployment peaking at 5.7%.

Jefferies said that implied only a roughly 10 basis point increase in sector write-off rates and a mid-single digit profit impact.

Jefferies said the bigger concern was political. "Tail risks associated with the War combined with the potential for a significant lurch of government to the left after May elections is limiting appetite from new investors," the brokerage said.

Betting markets placed Angela Rayner at 25% and Andy Burnham at 22% as most likely next Labour leader, while a 41% probability was assigned to Starmer’s exit occurring between July and September 2026.

Jefferies said it now considered a bank surcharge increase "more likely than not," estimating a roughly 2 percentage point rise would reduce sector profits by 2-3%.

Forecast distribution yields of roughly 13% in 2027 and roughly 15% in 2028, combined with buyback programmes, Barclays and Lloyds each expected to repurchase a further £2 billion of stock within eight months, underpinned the case for holding the sector through near-term noise. Barclays was preferred near-term; Lloyd 6-12month timescale

Got my full allowance thanks Paul so will not be averaging up. You?

What an appropriate date to downgrade to have maximum effect..

Quite right LoggyLogbot,

I remember thinking exactly the same when I bought here and NWG was completely out of favour. The share price on open was down 16% after not bad results. Back in late October 2023. And just look at the share price appreciation since. The fact I've had 38% of my initial outlay returned back to me through dividends, in five payments (2.5 years), I doubt can be even equalled, let alone bettered. A few small pullbacks along the way but the fundamentals just keep on getting stronger. I've been running my 'fair value' here since that time. Last call was £7.10. But, since the alteration in the outlook for interest rates, it's now up to £7.31. Outside forces allowing, it'll get there. The rotation in NWG bonds is expected to add £1.5b to income alone in 2026. "In the FTSE 100, few companies offer a better combination of a high dividend yield and a strong margin of safety. While some stocks have higher raw yields, NatWest's expected 6.64% (38p @ 572p) yield is unusually well-covered by earnings (approx. 2.2 X cover) making it one of the most robust and sustainable income plays in the index for 2026."