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Thank you for an excellent post try2buylow. I agree with your analysis and conclusions.
Currently we have about 1.9 mln shares traded of which the balance seems to be more buys than sells. So let's call it even as it is always hard to tell.
Looking at the fundamentals there is no reason fornthe SP to be down from where we were yesterday.
This is being played hard, yet again, and unfortunately people are falling for it.
Read the RNS and the earlier updates and then ignore all the noise here and have a look what is going on in the world and then think again if you want to be out of this.
I don't think so.
MS
@Morningson
No must be some technical glitch - maybe even LSE cant believe the SP
Take Care
@Surfie1961
Of course i am not happy with the share price fall. It makes a total mockery of investing when a business mcap is so out of line like this with its fundamental value - its a total farce,
Am i happy with the update - YES
Am i happy with the clarity provided - YES
Am i happy with the Longevity of the Business - YES
Do i think significantly more to come - YES
Am i happy with the SP - NO - Its simply defies all known logic but i remain invested, this situation will change. The business is history in the making. The business side is RIGHT, the SP now needs to catch up with the fundamentals!!!! and it will....
Good luck whatever your call
Pork's
aaaarrrrgh, and now its back. What's wrong with this site.....
Apologies.
MS
Did you get your last post deleted Porky?
Why?
MS
@Bluelight
Good luck for your future trading - Take Care
Retail will i guess capitulate positions, II have time to sit back and this is why most step price changes drop when least expected after updates but not always on the same day.
Time will tell how this plays out, from my own point of view as i have said, i think it was a superb update and provided the clarity required. I am more confident than ever on the longevity of the business.
A move onto the main market would also be a welcome boost and I really can see that happening fairly soon, they have outgrown the current arrangement ...
GLA whatever your call
Pork's
Totally comprehend Blues frustration , do I think there is another aim company with as much upside potential ? No and therefore will hold and make any decisions after we open up and see impact of test sales on cash balance and progress with non covid paths G.M mentioned they are pursuing today.
Strong but the market discounts the past [and cash it seems] and looks to future earnings , where they have doubts on the numbers. At this mcap the company could bumble along with 40m of sakles and still be cheap. I might add some more soon.
Come on Porky (and some others) there is NO way you should be happy about the fact that we are over 3% down. Get real, it's one thing to be positive but this is not great today. We have waited weeks for this RNS and as per usual the day started with the "to the moon" carp. I'm in the same camp as Bluelight all be it haven't sold just yet as I so far down I kind of have to hang on and prey. One thing for sure your £54.00 prediction is some time off.
Blue - Don't let the Fuc4ers grind you down - it will come right!
This BB Needs You!
Blue - Don't let the Fuc$ers grind you down - it will come right!
This BB Needs You!
That's me done with it, fack it. Can't be doing with the share price manipulation. Good luck all.
I am actually VERY happy with todays update.
It provides the clarity we all so desperately needed and we have much more to come so i remain both very positive and relaxed.
Of course todays SP is a continuing disappointment, its traded to death and not even remotely in line with its fundamental value but this will change.
A move to the main market, the launch of the LFT into their ready made distribution network, the H1 due shortly will all add. Much more to come..
GLA
Yet another bubble day, now it has burst, are you surprised? This is aim after all , I’m sure many of us have seen this before.
So many optimistic posts trying to make sense of this up/down sp. The market rules and the traders are in charge,hold.
Because the DHSC is set up as manufacturer of the test, they'd be in dispute with themselves. It's hardly likely they're about to admit their own test is sh@t are they? (Which it is for the avoidance of doubt)
re the DHSC contract dispute - why, as far as I am aware, the DHSC / Government not pursued Innova for failure to perform?
Chris Toffer is right.
The replacement price mentioned of £19.8m represents a sales value of £80-£100m at a GP of 75-80% - so a substantial majority of the sales value of the contract per YE except for the £24m (gross of Vat = £20m net sale) unpaid of YE revenue (in the £73m exposed debt (including VAT £12m that would be recovered if written off) along with Q121 Promate sale £40net or £49m gross). It must be an issue with or over the product.
They go on to say "It is possible, but not probable, that the DHSC's claim for a refund under the limited assurance warranty will be successful"... would significantly impact the financial statements in terms of revenue & provision for product warranty could be significant. Lets guess to the market holding zero shares, i.e. those with a vested interest in ruling worst cases in, that might be pencilled in as adjustment down £120m revenue less whatever has been provided against uncollected debt (£20m?)
IMO this shows in the SP action today, it is back to where it was without information and all worst cases being factored in.
EXCEPT SHs are better off because we now know more and can judge the size of uplift the uninvested cynic would write in if the dispute is resolved as management feel is probable (by replacement) rather than the possibility of repayment. £100m or 140p per share + whatever may be recovered of debts net of VAT + something for lifting the cloud over the business.
The machines do not make up that much of the contract. Theyre only worth about 10k each and they were deploying 300 under the contract (there is some evidence to suggest that they didn't even all get delivered).
However 300 x 10k is only 3m.
The issue is more likely around exsig vs the introduction of PROmate, which supersedes exsig on ease of use and cost effectiveness. And/Or Winterplex which were ordered ahead of an expected flu season that didn't happen.
Would have been nice to see a resolution but the dispute is in line with figures that we've spoke about on this board. An LFT laugh now should hopefully kickstart the recovery
The issue with the DHSC is probably not over whether or not the units delivered were not fit for purpose but rather over the contractual consequence of that being the case.
NCYT are probably arguing that it simply amounts to a breach of warranty for which the contract already provides the solution - replace the non performing units at NCYT's expense (£19 million).
DHSC are probably arguing that it amounts to a breach of condition which entitles DHSC to end that particular contract as well as not pay for the non performing units (cost to NCYT: £60 million plus VAT plus loss of profit on rest of that contract).
Q4 and Q1 sales
21- no full understanding about the issue, but we now have the info about the amounts involved and we know that it's a "warranty" issue.
My understanding - Ncyt had a minor f.ck up with the product and want to replace under warranty as per the contract. Gov want to do whatever it is they want to do that goes against the contract - presumably, money back on Q4 and A1 sales and return all goods because they've filled the warehouses with cheap tests [that don't really work].
I't a bit like those c.nts on ebay who buy your stuff, then find a cheaper alternative somewhere else, and try to make it look like you're at fault so you pay for return postage. Only on a slightly bigger scale.
Do we still fully understand what the actual dispute is?
I have to be honest here I'm not entirely sure what the warranty issue scope is, is there anywhere I can read up on it?
Are they suggesting there's a problem with the product or something else?
I think the VAT will still have to be paid if the dispute settles in the DHSC favour as it is a warranty issue, so the sales are not cancelled.
I have not seen much mention of the vat.. most are positive posts.