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diagnostics is going to be huge going forward and big pharmas will now happily invest billions into it after seeing what can happen in this pandemic.
AZN need a strong diagnostics division and that is why IMO they are already in early discussions about a buyout
True @Crab. I still can't get my head round why Novacyt is valued at just under roughly is expected annual revenue? I keep thinking to myself, what am I missing here? By my calculations, we are trading at roughly at forward p/e of 2! Crazy. The market is still valuing this as a one off max 12 months windfall and assigning no value to future revenue and changed valuations in the diagnostic markets. Can anyone enlighten me?
Agree Crabtree, given the depth of involvement, there is no way that discussions haven't taken place. NCYT may well want to stay independent, but I believe that AZN will want them in house and put forward a deal. If so, we will not be at the start of the process, we'll be into the end game already.
Aso, why is AIM trading at a 4% discount to France??
Trendz - agree and am also baffled. It is being held back for some reason - but as we saw yesterday and in sessions previously when this moves it really does move. It could easily go to £6+ within a few trading sessions when they decide to let it go. Are the shorters aiding the potential buyer mop up cheap shares on open market? It has been going on for over a month now - If buyer could get 20/30% of company at £3 average say then they could offer £10+ for the remaining 70% which would save them a lot of money. Possibly
This by r$ck on twitter was interesting. Voleon short on ZS Pharma just before AZN bid on it.
https://twitter.com/rick_shares/status/1291276279011049473?s=20
Could be nothing, could be something. Good bit of analyst work either way.
Trendz, been watching that and asking the same question.
The big picture is what I'm interested here. AZN take over now moved from a strong possibility to a clear probability IMO. It makes perfect sense for them to make a move and I think they will have.
Thats interesting find CCKid ...hmmmmm
What's the difference between a strong possibility and a clear probability ?
Timescale maximum - any guesses ?
IF a take over happens and a vote on acceptance ,my view would be would need £20 a share before accepting an offer
with the Global business ncyt built up already
AZN takeover does make sense to me - what are the takeover rules in France? Could explain the SP being held back... i.e. keeping it at a low average for a certain period of time. Although, this is peanuts for AZN, speed over price of takeover would likely be more important to them. Takeover price should be at least £6
Troublesome, when I first raised this a few weeks back, I was seeing it as a 30% possibility. After everything I've seen unfold since, I'd say it's now a 60%+ probability. If it's going to happen, will happen very soon. The ground work discussions will all have been done and dusted by now. Just my opinion (that I know many disagreed with at the time), but it's now heading strongly in this direction.
Anything under £10 is daylight robbery!
RBM - Can't really disagree.
ATB
Value? Got to be over £1B for a quick, clean sale which would mean £14+ SP.
Could account for the Radio silence from NCYT normally I would have expected a lot more in the way of RNS's to support the SP, lets see minimum £15.00 if they want my tickets.
Just going back over what happened in 2015 with AZN buying ZS Pharma. Seems no-one had a clue. No tip-off at all.
Even had a huge sell off in the weeks before, from 75p to 55p before recovering a bit.
News hit and it shot up 40% as guys rushed in before it was taken off the market. Total surprise to everyone.
https://www.thestreet.com/.image/c_fit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_620/MTY4NjQwMjg4NTg3NjU0Nzkx/image-placeholder-title.png
ElGringo, we're in the same ballpark.
At the start of these sort of scenarios, the obvious stance to take is 'why would they?'
When circumstances develop as they have, your stance has to change to 'why wouldn't they?'
That's where my thought process is currently. It makes perfect sense for AZN. They need to strengthen their diagnostics capability, they're already deeply entwined with NCYT and they've just raised £3B through bonds.
Obviously not that simple, but this one ain't rocket science to predict....IMO!!
if news and a vote , my thinking important to remember the Global business ncyt have built up ,also the number of global distributors
investors need a good price for shares if a take over happens
I work for AstraZeneca they see Novacyt as a partner and are focused on their pillars of respiratory, oncology, immunology, cv met and some vaccines. I repeat not diagnostics this is just to help the NHS and the government out so that they can get the economy back to normal. Please stop fantasising about an AZ takeover, if they were going to take them over they would have done along time ago. They see them as a partner just like all their other diagnostic partners.
Having said that Novacyt is still a great company and will increase their revenues in the months to come and therefore the SP should do the same.
I agree, i wouldn't want less than £12 a pop for my shares, but would actually be looking at closer to £16 for a quick sale.
I'm otherwise more than prepared to hold for the long term on this.
while ncyt seem slow with the updates recently
even this part of last weeks R& D RNS shows how progressive ncyt are
R&D highlights
· Launch of near-patient (mobile) testing, which comprises Novacyt's COVID-19 test, direct-to-PCR RNA extraction kit (Exsig™ Direct), and q16 and q32 instruments
· Launch of a saliva sampling type to support ease of patient sampling, lower levels of discomfort and demonstrate more reproducible data
· Development of a respiratory testing panel to diagnose and distinguish between influenza A&B, RSV and COVID-19. Launch expected during September 2020 for the 2020/21 flu season in the Northern hemisphere
· Development of a two-gene test to address markets employing this testing approach. Launch expected no later than September 2020
· Development, together with a partner, of a serology (antibody) test to detect past infection of COVID-19. Launch expected in Q4 2020
Harts, thanks for your viewpoint. Not sure what you do within AZN, are you giving us an informed BOD company viewpoint, or a personal employee one? It's really not fantasising, it's just looking at clear and present business indicators.
also the previous rns
in my view show how progressive ncyt are ,and why if a take over ,a good share price needed
2,000 patient clinical trial using Novacyt's near-patient testing system initiated in London care homes
Paris, France and Camberley, UK - 22 July 2020 - Novacyt (EURONEXT GROWTH: ALNOV; AIM: NCYT), an international specialist in clinical diagnostics, notes the initiation of a clinical trial by Queen Mary University of London using the Company's innovative near-patient testing system. The study is investigating whether daily COVID-19 testing reduces the infection rate, morbidity and mortality in the high-risk care home population.
The randomised clinical trial, recruiting up to 2,000 residents in 50 care homes across east London, is being led by Professor Jo Martin, President of the Royal College of Pathologists and Professor of Pathology at Queen Mary University of London. The study is using a mobile or near-patient testing (NPT) system for COVID-19 developed by Novacyt (further detail below), which comprises the Company's COVID-19 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, direct-to-PCR RNA extraction kit (exsig™ Direct), and portable testing instruments (Q16 and Q32 instruments), to ensure reliable results are received within an hour of testing.
The clinical trial team comprises researchers, medical students and laboratory experts from Queen Mary and Novacyt. Daily testing, using Novacyt's NPT system, is being trialled for residents, staff and visitors in 25 care homes. As the comparator, the other 25 care homes will receive standard central laboratory testing once a week.
As part of the clinical trial, the effectiveness of mid-nose nasal swabs compared to invasive nasopharyngeal swabs will be evaluated to support ease of use, lower levels of discomfort and demonstrate more reproducible data.