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@Bram
Yeah super sleepy, it's a marvel it continues to drift upwards without the sort of news the market gets excited about.
Makes you wonder if GM knows there's an institutional investor building a position so he's keeping things quiet until they're done. We don't get any TR1s, and the only way to know would be to get access to the share register in France.
@Usain / Yoda!
Here's hoping this is the start of the next rally, guess we'll find out in a few days if this starts creeping up again. Tomorrow's mini goal is to not go lower than 296p, get a higher low for the day, whether it's red or blue.
And, if it does turn out to be a bleu day tomorrow, there's a 20% chance of a gap up, and 80% chance of the price dipping below today's close, before climbing higher and finishing strong later in the day.
Also, June's only doji was after two red days, like we have now, and it led to a 9 day rally from 232.5p to as high as 305p!
Got a doji today. Which means more useless/not useless stats time.
Since Feb we've only had 7 dojis (Doji is a representation on the chart of open and close being at the same price)
5 were followed by blue days
2 followed by red days
So we have a 71% chance of a blue day tomorrow. And an 89.5% chance of an RNS tomorrow (day 17 out of 19)*
*kinda
As long as the highs and the lows keep getting higher then there's no stress. Like the guys were saying a few posts down, you always get a drift after a good rally.
A warning sign would be a dip below 282.50p, or it struggling to hit 342.50p on the next rally after a bit of news. Not only that, we have short pressure from Voleon to content with. If it wasn't for that, share price would be quite a bit higher. it's not just the short itself, but also investors who're scared off by it and the momentum it kills, which also puts people off. Shorting is powerful - I like it in some ways for certain reasons, but I think it shouldn't be allowed in times of crisis.
For now, all is well and I threw my hat in the RNS ring earlier, I think the next RNS lands between close today and close Monday, just based on recent stats. We're overdue 6 days over the average. Looking for 350 to 360p on the next rally if it's a weak bit of news, and a proper much higher re-rate if we get a huge update.
Saw it on Twitter, this one?
https://twitter.com/Moilgas/status/1293489361858813952?s=20
Signed it myself, never know, might take it if some news outlet likes it.
Yeah we can increase the sample size, you're right.
But then we lose the Covid context which I think is more important! Would be like comparing pre-covid chart trends to post-covid. This is what we've got to work with really.
Anyway, just playing but maybe we can get some sort of idea from it.
This is the heaviest period Novacyt has been through in terms of R&D developments, collaborations and shareholder interest. They'd got a lot to say. Let's have it GM!
Current time from last RNS: 16 days
Average wait between RNS: 10.2 days
Longest wait between RNS: 19 days
Going to play the RNS game myself today and put a peg between today and Monday close. Beyond that would make it the longest Novacyt has gone with a news release out of the last 10 RNS, which is the least probable.
Going to throw a bit of woo into the mix!
Over the last 10 RNS updates on R&D, contracts and sales the average time between them is 10.2 days.
Longest I think is 19 days. We're on day 15 day now since last update so make of that what you will!
That doesn't include voting rights, or liquidity agreements. Just actual news the market wants hear.
Don't need to check the link so much today guys. Anything that happened on Friday with Voleon would have been published on Saturday. Mondays nothing gets published it seems.
Cheers Ash too, sorry just spotted that you listened through it! Tapping foot here waiting on these tenders...
Cheers Mike!
Spotted something on Twitter re a Southampton Uni developed test. Might be Novacyts. Looks like the detail on it was a few days ago on BBC Radio:
Missed it, can anyone listen to audio right now and see if they mention who the company they've developed it with is?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000lg48
I can't listen to it until later..
Based on the amount of money that moved into Novacyt, seemingly for no reason in the past two weeks, it's not just likely, but almost a dead cert that something big is about to happen. If it wasn't for the short's price suppression, NCYT would be closer to around 400p without a major RNS.
Think about that. Novacyt got a re-rate on the fly and that usually means brokers tipping their clients off.
For me the recent price action means more than the noise. Not fantasy either, it's always like this - it's how insider trading gets studied. Look back at the volume of money moving in before a news or M&A release and you can clearly see a lot of buyers had advance knowledge:
https://hbr.org/2014/06/insider-trading-is-more-commonplace-than-you-might-think
NYU and Harvard both been approaching the problem from that angle, because it's almost impossible to get hard evidence any other way.
It's a good trading and investing strategy, set up your scanners for unexpected increases in volume.
Didn't spot that, is it the investing.com site?
https://uk.investing.com/equities/novacyt
Went for a look and found that place. Check out the technical indicator section!
https://ibb.co/ZfWP15c
Haha! Maybe need a camomile tea!
Time for an inquiry. Randox wasn't a one-off. They're making self-serving failures repeatedly now with testing and PPE.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/07/revealed-uk-rapid-covid-test-not-yet-approved-by-regulators
Total sideshow!
Chartwell Consultants?
No clue, been ages since we heard about them.
Also didn't hear about Saudi Arabia, Indonesia or India sales. Had emergency approval by April for all three, so sales have been going there no doubt.
@RBM
Yep. That's the daddy!
We never really talk about it but they have an OTC listing in the states:
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NVYTF:US?sref=egrC1SC3
Would they want to go list on a main exchange there, uff no clue. If you want big exposure and growth then that is the place to go though. We'd love that no doubt but are they ready for the headache, maybe not this year. I could totally see a play for main market. I've a feeling GM is sick of AIM already. Having to deal with AIM's NOMADs.. I mean who really wants to deal with that sort of slime. You're under their wing too, your AIM NOMAD/Broker is toying with your share price for their gain, and at the same time they're supposed to be holding your company accountable. Total joke.