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@Trendz
That's really solid, and don't see anything contentious there, nice work.
Personally I think NCYT gets 3 shots at a proper re-rate
1. Big sales, contracts, production update
2. Acquisition & move into main market
3. R&D update on non-covid diagnostics growth and expansion (ambition to grow into another Qiagen pulling in over $1 billion a year)
Second two are more permanent and likely to attract big investors long term. I think that gives Novacyt a mega share price - tell the market how you will spend your war chest. Even add to it with a placing if you have to later in the year or next year to help with an acquisition (investors hate placings but in this case it will be better for them in the long term - especially if shares are offered at a discount to existing holders). All this cash coming in needs to get spent wisely one the next 12 months pushing into new areas. Full on growth phase, lay it all out, 5 year plan. Get an investor presentation going.
Yeah it's so specific to that setting. The way the staff will be trained, their routine, enhanced measures to protect the most at risk.
No way you would trial all that, as well as the headache of actually getting access to the vulnerable to run a trial, to not then be the main supplier. Other biotechs are proud and lucky to get access to a patient sample through the CONDOR program, let alone run a full on daily testing trial in the highest risk area.
Updated here Flem:
https://bdif.amf-france.org/en_US/Resultat-de-recherche-BDIF?formId=BDIF&DOC_TYPE=BDIF&LANGUAGE=en&subFormId=dpcn&BDIF_TYPE_INFORMATION=BDIF_TYPE_INFORMATION_DPCN&TEXT=&BDIF_RAISON_SOCIALE=NOVACYT&bdifJetonSociete=RS00005391&REFERENCE=&DATE_PUBLICATION=&DATE_OBSOLESCENCE=&valid_form=Start+search&isSearch=true
Usually updates mid to late afternoon from any changes the day before
Speak of the devil and all that. Primer's social media account messing' with you!
Blad3sharp might release some intel this morning, think he was weighing up whether to share or not last night.. hope he does, always interesting to see what he comes up with
Avacta RNS's are pretty clever. They seem to land just as the share price is showing weakness and about to fall through support.
Lookin' good..
Location checks out too, Cambridge like the AZN collab work I think?
Was the Like directly in relation to that exact press release?
@ Flem
Those are just examples of tests on the market and a snapshot of tests in development. Not even close to being a comprehensive list. Old not too, that's mostly drafted based on April to June and their situation is now worse. Up to 9 days delays in test results at the moment in some states.
Novacyt has something in play in the US (GM said in a few RNS's ago), waiting on that news landing for a while now.
@Bing you think blade's on to some M&A news?
Will see in the morning if he shares I guess, though I had the feeling he was digging into AZN, job listings etc That sort of thing.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/08/06/business/06reuters-thermo-fisher-qiagen-hedgefund.html
Thermo is on the hunt for a high end diagnostics firm, wonder who they'll turn to next.
Full text in case it's paywalled:
Davidson Kempner Says Again It Will Not Be Tendering Qiagen Shares
By Reuters
Aug. 6, 2020
Updated 1:00 p.m. ET
BOSTON — Hedge fund Davidson Kempner said again on Thursday it will not be tendering its shares in Qiagen, days after Thermo Fisher Scientific said its offer to buy the German genetic test maker expires soon.
"Davidson Kempner Will Not Be Tendering Into The Current Offer," the hedge fund said in a statement. It reiterated its position that it considers the current offer "wholly inadequate."
Thermo Fisher said this week its offer to buy all of Qiagen's ordinary shares for an increased price of 43.00 euros per share will expire on Monday.
The hedge fund, which owns 8% of Qiagen, has said the target's fair value on a standalone basis was between 48 and 52 euros per share.
I reckon their hand is aces too. Anyone worried would be doing investor presentations and putting out RNS's on anything they can get hold of.
Either way, bet the antibody partner is someone we're familiar with. Probably staring it right in the face and just haven't put all the pieces together yet.
@Kilkenny
Bruker looks like a solid candidate, timescale on the CE is really close. Nova said they're looking to get CE marked, Bruker says they have it now? Does it match up, did Bruker say they got CE after Nova said they were applying?
Yeah a lot can happen in a day, just one bit of news can transform the share price. Nova has too many layers now, really getting hard to feel it out. Which products were developed for what partnership, and in what quantities. HT is for AZN we're pretty sure of now, and whether there will be any stock left over for other buyers in 2020 is a huge question mark (just noticed now PD sales team still didn't reply on that). Who is this antibody kit developed with or for. Is the Winter Flu/Covid kit an AZN collaboration too, is that part of the testing network? Are all the new products part of the testing network?
Will Nova stop selling the original RT-PCR test once enough 60 min HT versions are manufactured. Or will HT be all reserved for the govt/AZN and the original test being flogged off until stock of the HT allows?
Will saliva become the norm, or is govt. worried about saliva contamination and still preferring swabs?
What are the full list of partners now, and what is the full list of active trials/validations?
What is the capacity for all test types now?
Was the 2 gene test developed because Nova has indicative orders? Why burn R&D if they didn't, as they acknowledge that single gene is superior. Are French or other market 2 gene sales so significant that they put this out?
How is the care home trial developing? Prof at QM Uni said in email that the analysis would be done in stages if they notice any discrepancy between rapid testing and the original RT-PCR.
GM has signalled that Nova is acquisition hungry, who are they eyeing up, what tech is that, where are the markets for it. Is it a competing product, is it more profitable to buy this small company and access markets at speed that R&D'ing themselves - they've shown their R&D speed is quicker, if not quickest in the diagnostics segment right now (western companies anyway, we don't know about Asian timelines).
I bet that's not even scratching the surface. Other diagnostics plays are dead simple. They're basically developing some test, and you wait to see if they can validate it, CE mark it, then see if they can actually sell the thing anywhere near their unicorn predictions.
No way, we're up 13% since yesterday and we hit two new highs this week. 322.50p and 342.50p!
Last week did a couple days 320p, one would have been higher if Voleon didn't sell into the second day.
Next highs are 350 and 360. We got to expect these big swings now, but that works both ways. Looking at the daily, NCYT looks like it's ready for a gap up. Any news that hits with this current amount of volume and we're well over £4 again.
Later Obe!
Dylan's Council Tax Free Abode
What, I'm doing it wrong? :D
Well maybe we could compromise and keep everyone happy.
Daily 'Price Action' thread, or some other posher name?
We could even name it - 'ShareHunter's Daily Price Action Thread - Thurs 6th' and the guys who like zooming in on the daily games can all post in there? I'd probably be in there spamming it too! :)
Think back two months ago yorkshir - you've got a ton of investors who have been trapped for all this time in positions around the 300s to 400s. If this is getting a re-rate (which is what I think has happened now behind closed doors, ie. the MM has been advised on a new price for this stock), they won't just move it up quickly. They'll toy around with the price to shake out people who've been trapped in the low to mid 300s first. Scare them a bit.
Only way that would change is if a huge volume came in from a bit of news. Expect it to climb and dip until some solid RNS comes through. And now volume is up, you'll see more traders so it'll be even more volatile than it has been for past 7/8 weeks I'd expect.
Had a solid day though!
Missed the action! Wicked, back in blue again. Was coming home expecting to see a -6% and braced myself.
Just checked Voleon, no update yet on that. Can be a couple hours more until the AMF site updates from yesterday though, so will know soon what happened there.