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Yeah that's a bit cryptic. That maps been around for months, though never looked as bad. Still can't see any reason to randomly post it.
A subtle suggestion that a global update is coming?
Yeah it's true. Novacyt couldn't supply the UK govt. half a million tests a day even if it wanted to. Nevermind other countries govts. and private contracts. 500k a day is 15 million a month. Novacyt if it gets max capacity going was looking for 10 million a month? That's crazy numbers, but the world is too big a place for one company. Even a country is too big to handle alone.
Actually wondering what happens now capacity wise with Novacyt with these new rapid tests. What's the production on those compared to the previous tests.
We definitely are due a big update on what NCYT look like now. The company could be a very different beast to what we knew three months ago.
@ Captain
Think there's some confusion there. Novacyt isn't launching testing in a van.
They're launching mobile, ie. 'portable' rapid 1 hour devices. Just like the govt. wanted. Big chunk just went to DNAnudge, but they're looking for more to get testing up to 500k per day now. From the Indy article:
The government is continuing to look into other rapid testing technologies that will further help in getting the country back up and running, having this week unveiled plans to increase testing capacity to half a million tests a day by the end of October."
Weird coincidence that both DNA nudge and Novacyt are launching this 1 hour test in the same week. GJ to DNA nudge, but more looking forward to seeing our contracts for these. And the UK is just one govt. of many.
No worries, we still have our 1 hour test launches next week too. We'll get our time in the sun yet.
Champagne will go back on ice!
Oh balls yep, it's DNAnudge!
https://www.dnanudge.com/press/26/Rapid%2C+lab-free+COVID-19+test+being+developed+by+Imperial+team+delivers+results+in+just+over+an+hour
Blindsided. Didn't read article fully!
@ Usain, yeah the q16 is tiny for a PCR machine. I think it's something like 2kg just. Basically like holding a laptop. Will check and find link to that though.
We are on! This is bigger than expected. I thought it was just a product launch, ie. product available to buy and then maybe the NHS trusts would adopt these for the winter season once the trial had ended.
Looks like a proper roll out like Simple's saying!
How did the Indy get word of it and has it been leaked to the press meaning we'll see more about it tonight and tomorrow elsewhere..
It's on their front page now, main article!
https://ibb.co/30mDdcS
https://www.independent.co.uk
Nice one Balanced (and Simple too, I missed it first time round)
@ wood
I asked Collinson a few weeks back about who was doing their PCR testing. Wouldn't bite!
Might try again though, they have loads of different contact centres and email addresses. Will see later if I'm feeling a bit cheeky, might get someone with a loose tongue!
Thing about testing at airports is you can't just have some reasonably decent test for all passengers as different countries set different standards. China for example will only allow a high specificity PCR test from a lab which they've approved of within the host country.
If you want a universal test that will let you fly anywhere, a rapid 100% antigen test will need to be approved by the most strict nations so you can test at airport kiosks. Then you can use that for any country. No point having a bunch of different tests for flying for different countries. It's confusing for passengers, and a total shambles if you have multiple destinations planned.
A one hour test at check in would do it, but it would need to be 100% and approved by nations like China for use by a kiosk attendant. Loads of work to be done to make that happen. You need to run an airport trial like NCYT is doing with care homes and have all countries convinced by its efficacy.
Hong Kong thought an 8 hour antigen PCR test was 'rapid' a few months back. That was their airport requirement.
To give an idea of the scale. Heathrow alone processed nearly 81 million passengers in 2019. It is a mammoth undertaking get even a small % of that flying again without spreading the virus.
@ Usain Yeah and the major point these discussions neglect is that NCYT's R&D team are always working on something. The webinar made it clear that the scientists like Birnie get feedback or have a good idea and they sell it to the R&D team to develop.
They developed the rapid test kits and mobile units. Those are all about to launch. So what have the been working on since then. What's the latest thing they're working on with the 10's of millions coming in as per the RNS.
We have no future outlook, a lot of covid testing labs are still to launch gen 1, we're about to launch gen 2 next week and R&D has more cash than ever for gen 3.
@Wilson Haha, yeah that was perfect. Watertight too.
Sorry guys. GM just won't be baited in giving anything up!
https://ibb.co/CmKfNtM
The distinction been slow 100% testing and fast lower accuracy testing is now a false dichotomy though.
The landscape is changing and we're moving towards fast high throughput 100% testing.
You can run 360 tests in 24 hours on a cheap PrimeDesign q34 machine, with automated templates, and even now detect low vial loads in saliva and mid nose. That wasn't something the market knew was even possible when CONDOR started the tender process. You want more, fine then run a larger machine. The q16 and q34s are simply small mobile units (q34 actually a bit faster than the q16 too). PrimerDesign have all the templates now for the next-gen testing. A technician does nothing more than put tubes in a well. All pre-prepared. Over half a thousand different virus can be tested too in these machines. Templates and kits for all available from PrimerDesign.
Things move fast and NCYT and the NHS are working together on testing these new applications. The Condor tenders are in limited lots. Will be nice to get a 100 or 200 mill. Most might just get a 40 mill chunk if lucky.
That's not the relationship between NCYT/PrimerDesign and PHE and NHS though. The PD webinar this week made everyone realise that they're collaborating on developments. It's not a competition based on some meritocracy to get CONDOR tenders. That will become clear shortly as not only do you need to get product to market, you need to prove it on mass community trials within the NHS's purview if it's to become the backbone of their testing - that's why NCYT, the NHS and QM Uni are running a care home test - it's to create an application that will form the backbone of a fast 100% testing system, locally.
Condor isn't anything NCYT needs. They're not some unknown new agency trying to convince the market they've got a good product.
Yes that's something new for a lot of us after the webinar and RNS earlier this week. You can't just make a great product and then have it adopted by 'the NHS'.
Just won't work like that. There is both centralised and localised testing, and the move has been towards more localised testing. Once PHE approves your product, you can go and sell it to NHS trusts individually. And once you have your product installed and staff trained on it, there's little hope of anything even if it's better in some way, replacing it. The money isn't there to keep upgrading kit and retraining staff, especially if it's got 100% success rates and is fast, like this new 1 hour NCYT test.
If PrimerDesign can prove this 1 hour test PCR works as good as the currently installed traditional 2 hour PCR test with this NHS trust trial, it will be nigh on impossible for anyone else to come along and sell a new system to them.
There's a lot of dreaming about developing new innovative products that are somehow just going to magically appear in labs all over the world. These are labs on budgets with equipment already installed and staff already trained.
Sent the RADx link to Graham Mullis there. Probably already seen it but like Usain says, can't do any harm.
John we do, but we had that webinar in Mexico a couple days ago!
Clearly NCYT appreciates the mess Mexico is in too.
Brilliant find Kaeren. We knew the day was coming where traditional PCR testing would be surpassed. There were a lot of proponents suggesting serological testing would replace it, but this program (and I'm certain most governments and scientific advisory bodies to those governments) do not want serological testing as their backbone. Serological testing, like antibody tests, are problematic, someone could be infected with Covid and spreading it, yet the antibody test wouldn't detect it as it can take weeks to develop a sufficient response which can be detected.
So, what is this RADx program looking for? Check these screenshots. But in short, they want fast point of care testing with less expensive, smaller testing equipment.
Ring any bells?
What's Novacyt about to launch next week? Fast 1 hour testing on tiny little q16 and q36 machines, with 100% specificity and sensitivity.
And a mass trial within a vulnerable population to boost exposure and proof of product due in the first week of September for that product.
RADx will support and help fund anything similar to this, even if it takes an additional 6 months. Novacyt will launch this next week, and have a mass testing of it with analysis in 39 days from now (actually there would be analysis before then depending on how the trial proceeds - something I know because I've spoken to Professor JE Martin running the trial further than the original email I pasted from here).
Passages from Kaeren's link that are essential reading for any investor here.
https://ibb.co/2cHw8Zt
https://ibb.co/QbS2TNm
Conculsion? Novacyt, get a fast 99% + antigen mobile test to market and you've got a warchest to collect not just from the UK, but the US and no doubt other regions too.
Nice one Crabtree!
Just saw your post from Twitter. Will keep eyes peeled over the weekend. Good luck us!
Ah yes, see it now. It's normal for asset managers to short stocks as a hedging strategy. They often have a larger long position taken up and then take a smaller short position as a hedge. Quite normal practise. If they see things going the way they anticipate they'll close the short. Not something to worry about!
https://bdif.amf-france.org/en_US/Resultat-de-recherche-BDIF?formId=BDIF&DOC_TYPE=BDIF&LANGUAGE=en&subFormId=dpcn&BDIF_TYPE_INFORMATION=BDIF_TYPE_INFORMATION_DPCN&TEXT=&BDIF_RAISON_SOCIALE=NOVACYT&bdifJetonSociete=RS00005391&REFERENCE=&DATE_PUBLICATION=&DATE_OBSOLESCENCE=&valid_form=Start+search&isSearch=true