The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
What PM needs is a Daniel Plainview - I think Day-Lewis is available!
So let us now project forward (obviously with assumptions). we have the LP and Velociraptor has come up trumps and so has the new blocks yet to be announced. With help of DQE we are producing Oil to be sent off via truck load to China and the Mongolian Refinery is beginning to take shape.
The first question is what now for Petro Matad. Assuming that Velociraptor looks like being ths same extraction price from the ground as Herron ie circa $15 per barrel which would make it a very large low cost high margin well that one of the majors would die for. So would we get sold on. But would MG agree or would they find a away of vetoing it by arranging for Petrovis to block any deal. Also would they want to be reliant China playing ball with their facilities and rely of the MG to complete refinery on time. So what do we become. Mid level kind of Tullow Oil split into three main divisions:
1) Exploiting and production of oil
2) Exploring and Appraisal of oil finds.
3) Renewables.
and i would include a fourth division and spread our wings maybe M&A or Mergers and Acquisitions.
If we do become a mid sized Oil Producer and Exploiter i do think the city will want MB running the show. The city are quite ruthless and although a lot of what has happened is not MB's fault he has hardly looked dynamic (and that is a large part of the game) and has in fact (imho) come over as being out of his depth and incapable at times. They will want a new CEO to run the whole show. MB if he finds oil in the Raptors plus the other blocks will have proved himself as an explorer with a throughly good record. No my opinion is that if these come off this time next year or less MB will have been shown the door or kicked sideways as MD of Oil Exploration and a new CEO brought in the city and we could well have a new raft of major player shareholders.
4 weeks since ministry circulated the paper work before submission to cabinet, so it soon as cabinet get it we have LP, first week of the month is trend in here at matd for releasing RNS's, Tuesday looking good but can wait another couple of weeks for a mega multi bag here
It's a cliche but that doesn't mean it's not true.
One day it'll come, could be tomorrow (Tuesday), next week or next month but it'll come.
.... :-0
It had to be said... Im amazed we are not @ 7.5p right now..We could be in double figures next week if Buck gets his LP!
All just to expand on the TMK drills. They are all in the same area and apparently only 200 metres apart. The first spudded around 12th April and drilled to total depth of 375ft on time and without issues. The others will be similar. These are shallow wells and close together, one would hope that as the first was fine the others will go smoothly also. Velociraptor has every chance of spudding on time.
Be happy and punctual :-)
BP gladly filter me - you give nothing to this board.
Ugghhh I’m over it now, Dozz. Fortunately I’m thick ;-)
Or sure that be thick skinned.
Anyway, looking forward to MrP’s valuations this weekend.
SP has pulled back and is now ready for the next leg up, and my point is special certificate or not, news on the drill is weeks away which will support the next phase in this current uptrend.
Dozy -I had you filtered for a good few weeks but unfiltered you to see a comment you made that someone else had referred to. Happily you are back filtered as of NOW.
If the market has this priced in up front what do they think the number of wells will be and where did they get that figure from. I am just thinking of the SP between LP landing and Velociraptor results. Not thinking at all beyond that. So my thinking is between LP and middle end of June. it is very possible this share could go ballistic with hype and i do not mind admitting i will be out for a chunk of my holding before then and have a completely free ride to see where this share goes. Which bring on to another thing that has been mulling through my brain and will raise later on this afternoon.
After reading this I think when master posted some info of people in the field maybe it was to discuss the pipeline route as it is going into Matad area just a thought. GLA
Doc... don't rise to this one.
All very gibberish to me, I don't understand Mongolian.
Idiot doc thinks his opinion is fair on a poster here but others to comment in his opinion is not, his starts if the crap early doors and then gets pulled up on it then he complains like a beach, f off you waste of space, and dream on pulling the share price down 50% when it's on its way of transformational news you idiotic deramping moron, ok now I will let you talk to your self
canc - i agree was nice and orderly and it was a good to see after yesterday's toxic affair.
Then ID posted that he thought we could get news on Velociraptor spud within the next 3 weeks, which is a very feasible comment. As stated TMK who are using the drill equipment before passing on to us are bang on time with their timeframe. The drill pads are being sorted in May as per PM's RNS, so in my opinion there was absolutely no need for BP to call ID an idiot for an innocent post. BP's comment was toxic and uncalled for.
Curious - quite. I posted what I think was a fair post but regardless, it’s my opinion. I’m allowed one.
Thornogson then decides to stoke things as you say, and even start a thanking WOS thread to clearly try to antagonise. Nearly as sad as going onto other boards and disrupting them.
Truly, I have never known a board like this.
Ibiza28
Intelligent post. Partly agree on your simplified thinking but valuation comes as NPV10 which would value Heron much higher. Market is forward looking and prices in upfront. Research analysts have attributed "Risked" Valuation around 26.7p for Heron. If production profile exceeds management expectations just like for Heron-1 which came in at 800 bopd vs 500 bopd expected coz Petrochina first well came as 500 bopd.
Massive value currently unlocked which will be released soon after LP is done, coz then you can have "unrestricted cashflows" and the key variables would be: Oil price and Production.
More on future MCap and Valuation over this weekend.
Zavkhan province is west of our blocks? So this is not related?
Happy to be proven wrong.
Just an observation. It was nice and orderly here this morning, but some of those that protest about personalised and off topic posts seem desperate to stoke things up and provoke a reaction...
And if someone says odious things it's probably because they're odious?
You and Badprophet are really revealing your true colours today.
Oh and and don't forget....
Be wise and happy, but not odious Sir?
MisterP - BP supposedly filtered me when i kept calling him out and asking him questions that he would never answer, but funnily enough a post i put on earlier this morning he replied to it. Sad really.
Now the date is coming ever nearer hopefully to both LP and also news of Velociraptor and with that my mind has been wondering to what will happen to SP. There is no science to this so if anyone can give me a better idea then please do so.
The SP with no LP ( but LP on its way) seems to have found its level at the moment at 5p plus. It is generally estimated that this SP will double up on news of the LP in fairly rapid order. My reckoning is possibly within the same day others think i believe by the end of that first week. That would SP to somewhere between 10 -12p.
Now the $64k question is what will the SP do next and on what news. So are my estimates and rough (very rough rule of thumb)
1) DQE news of JV agreement and number of wells to be started this year. Every well will produce differently some a lot more easily than others. Some will have problems others will find it all a breeze. We will not know these for several months possibly not till Winter sets in. Therefore im;possible to put an accurate projection for SP but a rough idea i think can be used i think. Put very simply my estimate each well announced to drilled to exploit Herron will put a 1p on the SP. The sP is not going to jump on JV news from 10-12p to 36p just because of agreement with DQE so if we announce a 10 well deal the SP could well go to around 22p ie 12p on LP plus 1p for each well announced. That means that every penny or fraction of penny that goes on SP after that but during the spud of Velociraptor is part of the hype, expectation gamble on Velociraptor coming off. The question for all of us at which point is that SP becoming silly and top slice an amount off because when the news drops of Raptor results The SP will either tank or re rate significantly. So there will be a lot of us slicing an amount off before Raptor announcements. If Raptor succeeds the SP could well go straight to 30p plus if it fails then it will drop right back before coming back up to about 22p in the example above. After this all by this time next year the SP could well be looking down on 40p.
I'm out for the day so doc83 and if your chums curiousbloke wants to chip in them please do speak amongst your selfs because none here are listening to your bollks
Doc
Your posting style is same as Bad Prophet.
Same can be said about Doc and BP as same person !!!
BP keeps filtering every one on this board, but then keeping an eye out here as Doc83 maybe?
Just saying....