Price rise in 2017 was on speculation of Farm in deal ahead of drilling in Blocks IV and V that are estimated to contain Billions of barrels.
Block V looks very promising, with Velociraptor, Fox, Phoenix lined up soon after they monetize Heron. Gazelle would add further momentum. 2020 finally looks like a year where MATD will be re-born enroute to becoming a major leading Mongolian oil company.
It takes times, today's Oil giants like BP, Shell and Exxon all started small before success struck. Exxon in Alaska drilled so many dusters and was about to leave until their last drill there. That last drill turned out to be the 15 Billion barrel 'Prudhoe Bay'...oil discovery as we know it today.
So future is looking very bright. Traders will be back here in abundance when things start motoring ahead.
Many folks got wrong footed during Jan-Feb 2017 waiting on sidelines. Soon this started motoring ahead on strong momentum, they all jumped in. Some best weeks with daily 20% rises were common, with skne re-trace.....3 steps forward 1 step back...
So to assume winter is going to ge quiet is a dangerous assumption to make in my view.
Plenty of major price moving catalysts are ahead and yet to come with news coming in earlier also. Bet that will be fun to watch as traders scramble to get in....LoL
We could see more than 36p that was hit in Feb 2017, given that Heron is de-risked now and turning out to be lot bigger than Company originally thought.
Gazelle 'pich-out' traps could turn out to be lot bigger also, as they seem to have drilled on the edge boundary.
Cashflow from Heron from 2020 closes the door on any future funding in my view. They can drill those 3-4 drill targets in Block V where they have already had oil shows. Acreage is huge.
No doubt in my mind, this would be over £1 a share, in next 2 years if all goes to plan. Staying put is my strategy here. I got no time for short term trading. Far too busy with work and other life commitments.
Dusterhater, Waiting for spring might be way too late in my opinion. Price moves ahead of news. It jumped from 5p start of Jan2017 to end of Feb2017 touching 38p well ahead of wildcat drills and on speculation of Farm in.
This time around, totally different picture. Proven commercial oil from Heron discovery, that is about to get much much bigger with Gazelle also in the picture ahead. PetroChina on standby to come in soon so to speak.
Manro, I think MATD management want to do precisely that....go after the big prize in Block IV and V.
Block XX just gives them early cashflow. In my view, the plan probably is to farm in 50% of Block XX to PetroChina who can agree to drill say 30-40 wells there. Hence increase production many fold for both parties.
Farm-In cash received upfront from PetroChina would probably be used to drill say about 4-5 wells in Block V.
Block V drill targets: 1. Velociraptor 2 prospects ( 1 on either side of Velociraptor) 3. Fox 4. Phoenix