Member Info for Ibiza28

This share has been leak proof but just wondering if those two buys were the first sign of something leaking. GLA

I have been debating this issue about the final date. And i may be wrong but i think it is just that a date. Paul talks in the last RNS about drilling Mou 7 in the early part of 27 so i am sure that he also thinks it is just a debate. But if it is not we have all the information in our data base of what and where we have drilled and more to the point how will drilled it and i am sure that Paul would have made sure that information gleaned by SLG or Italfluids is confidential to Predator so anyone wanting our information would have to pay top dollar for it. So i am hoping and believe like Rob that this is just a small issue but i do think that Paul needs to address this in a RNS before very long.

Is it possible that Corrib South could come through quicker than all the others.

We have established a JV partner

We established how it all works.

Really jus waiting on Irish Govt to play its roll. If they are serious and the current turmoil is having a remarkable effect of keeping people focused. This amount of money of selling our rights of $100m makes a big difference to support of Morocco.

If the IG signs off to day (let us guess/hope) how long would it take for Prd to finalise things with Vermillion and then with the Irish Government. Say a month. By end of June that could all be done and sorted. Maybe even a very small dividend as well. Who knows.

I am really hoping that he finds the right road but it does look as if we have found a massive treasure trove but cannot find the key to unlock it. We could try blow the doors off but then you might destroy the whole treasure. IT is also such big haul that the number of potential buyers diminishes with each successive find and the price sky rockets each time and the number of suitors fall by the wayside. Almost counter productive. We have to leave something on the table for the buyer to make the most but at same time not give it away.

I understand this takes time. PG gave it six months. We are now reaching end of month 8 going to month 9 and we were drilling Mou 6 then we are not drilling Mou 6 and then guess what we are going to drill mou 6. We are meant to have a significant uptick from Nutech ITR report but still not sign of it. I understand trying to please the purchaser but everything seems to be stacked in his favour and there is nothing as yet see a Share Rise but we are having to stay in because we have no where to go. Are we going to have to wait with no news till next year at some point there has to be a bit of give and take with us shareholders. Every time this share goes up our CEO manages to shoot it back down again. It could be argued who needs trolls when you have PG as your CEO. he does it all for them. But am hoping to be proved completely wrong.

Paul is striking me as man who has wondered down so many cross roads that he has forgotten where he is going or how to get there and just hoping that he finds his way eventually and at the same time moving the finishing line just a bit further down the road.

Normally i do not feel that Directors owe the shareholders much in the way of information but with these life style shares I feel that they owe an explanation through out as we are the ones paying for his dream and his wages.

It is farily obvious that the talks have broken down (hope i am wrong) and therefore i see no reason why we cannot have the updated ITR for Morocco and also the production numbers for last two months in Morocco.

The trolls have got everyone off subject and it is time to ignore them completely Green box them and be done. The more you ignore them the more chance they will get bored (hopefully).

Morocc0

I would like bring back on subject

I have already posted about and had discussed the disconnect between Buyer and Seller

Buyer wanting to use Mou-6 to prove up resrouce.

Seller wanting use Mou-6 to prove up value.

Hence my belief that PG is reverting to control of Mou-6 drill. Maybe this will elicit a second offer.. Maybe there are other parties in the wings. That might explain why the ITR has been released

Also from the RNS there was mention of Mou-7 and 7TCF of gas in 2027.

1) I assume this is Mou-5 by a different number and location. Unless it is a whole drill. It is the same TCF,

This would imply either a breakdown or just a partial divestment.

It also implies one other thing %th November deadliine ( i believe this was the date. Is just that, a date rather than a finite end to everything. Otherwise why plan for 27 if you have not covered your bases. Would be seriously stupid.

Trinidad

Update of March and April production numbers well over due.

Conclusion

1) We are in talks to divest TT

2) The figures are disappointing.

Ireland

Anything could happen here so i will just continue to watch and hope.

Can I ask have those 85m shares been issued as we are still showing 814m shares i think it should be close to 900m

Sometimes i feel it is a shame that i us who are trying to talk up what we know we have got.

Also at the same time i feel like a kid shooting for the stars and i still have not learnt to cycle round the block.

We are sitting on and about to discover a lot oil in country that is mile from the middle east in time when the middle east is in absolute turmoil yet the share price is leveled at 3.5p. Every time it goes above 4p it gets shot back down again.

Now we have Mou-7 aimed at 7TCF but we still have not got Mou-6 to flow.

The impression i got from Presentation back in October is that we were existing Morocco now we are talking of testing Mou 7. I would just like to something substantial and definitive to deliver an uptick.

I cannot understand exactly what our plan is here. And i do not feel that i am the only one.

Are we exiting from Morocco but if we continue to prove it up there is a danger we end up pricing ourselves out of the market. We have to leave something on the table for the purchaser to grab as an up tick.

Yes we could go on get Mou 6 flowing and move the Mou 5 site a few hundred metres and prove up the 7tcf. Plus all the helium and we get an assets price somewhere $50bn. The problem is that there probably only one real party who can afford that and even then would be difficult. So we are spending that really we aim for Mars and might just get a rocket into orbit.

If we could just get the rocket into orbit we would still have a substantial asset and maybe a better chance of creating value as more than one party would be able to afford.

I feel we have not learnt how to walk yet we want to fly to the moon. I would like to see this share reach the price it really is worth and not a fraction of what Trinidad is worth.

Economists are so predictable and almost more dangerous than some politicians who shall remain nameless both here and overseas.

The chief economists of Bank of England the Fed in to States would almost certainly gone to the same top universities.

First thing they learn like the 101 of Economics is to raise interest rates when inflation goes up.

The idea is easy to follow but how is raising interest rates going to reduce the cost of petrol or gas. So that the retailor will reduce his price and the market will sort it self out.

My view this is not necessarily right.

If it is a demand led inflation then i would agree. But if it is a supply led inflation you either leave well alone or reduce rates in order to stimulate what would be a stagnating economy. How would increasing some ones mortgage help with reducing the price of oil all it does is just pile pressure on to businesses by increasing borrowing costs and the poorer in our society. It is counter productive and will inevitably lead to QE (again).

You really would think that after the energy crisis from Covid that they might have learned.

Personally -

Supply led inflation interest rates held or reduced.

Demand led inflation interest rates increased.

Because the text says one thing that is now the given solution. For goodness sake these are intelligent people or supposedly so and the keep make the same mistake. - Rant over.

Colon Thank you for picking the error you are absolutely right it should be don;t

There is a disconnect between Predator (PG) and the prospective buyer (ADNOC??)

The buyer wanted to use the Mou-6 well to prove up the resources stated/hinted at the ITR report by (as yet unseen),

The Seller (Prd and PG) want the Mou-6 drill to flow test the gas and get it flowing.

Conclusion. The buyer put in a low ball offer thinking it h ad PG over a barrell. PG has fought back. Additional raise go it alone with Mou-6.

Next move - Who blinks first. My thinking is that if buyer thinks Prd will struggle to get Mou-6 to flow it will leave well alone. However if buyer think that Mou-6 will flow (my thinking is that he does think or know it will flow otherwise why want to change the drill objective from flow testing to deeper depths). Buyer will put in a revised offer per MMCF running up to drill date.

Obviously wide enough apart to make PRD not so much pull out of agreement as to want to continue proving up a bit more.

My guess someone offered us $3 mmcf and PG was looking for somewhere north of $7..5 MMCF . So what was the offer we will probably never find out.

If >400 bcf rumour are right low ball offer somewhere around 1.25bn for Mou 3 etc and very posssibly same again for whole Mou5. He and Oil all thrown in. ie aroud $2.5bn. Paul if 7.5 is right would be looking at $3n Mou -3 and at least same again for Mou-5 and we walk away. Basic difference between $2.5bn and something like $6bn.

If offer comes in then this has to be minimum $5bn for Paul to even think about. If PG gets Mou-6 to flow (if he uses Italfluids or Schlumberger ) I would hope around the 80% mark. then the price that will be on the table next will be around $10 MMCF for >400 bcf ie $4bn Mou 3 and very probably same again for Mou 5 and we exit with something like $8bn .

If it fails then what next for the company.

We do not sell Guerciff try and extend license. I am sure PG would have started discussions on this and would know the mood around camp so to speak and with the SC-3 money start to think of other options.

With war still continuing and knowing that one day one of these Iranian drones is going to hit a target in Saudi I would be staggered if another revised offer was received between now and drill date.

I have one question and have probably missed it on my reseach but what do we know of PG as a negotiator. It is said he is a touch negotiatar but i am not sure that i evidence of this on other deals. I know he talks a good talk has done for year and i believe he will deliver. I know this will deliver but whether it delivers my original investment or a hell of lot more i do not know.

What i cannot square is how a raise to test drill Mou-6 is financial negotiating drill when the original idea was for someone else to drill Mou-6 not to get it flowing but to test even deeper depth. To me it looks as the buyer is wanting re-assurance on the Nu-tech ITR rather than clarification on flow rates. I will not say a parting of the ways negotiating wise but let us just say a different strategy.

I am not coming in for any more but also no selling up yet. What i will accept is that it was a carefully considered raise and not a last minute Hail Mary to rescue the deal.

It is going to take a long time to churn these shares possibly longer than the timetable in mind. The people here who work on the market would give us a better estimation of how long this is going to take to recovery to the 4.5p we were at.

I would like to see an updated ITR.

I would also like to have the new estimations for Ireland whether this revised interest from the Irish Govt is real or just another piece of spreading FUD

It would be good if PG could do another presentation maybe with questions from us.

Also like to know the build up of gas

I know i am not going to get it but i think it is time someone levelled with us as to where we are

If we are now going alone with Mou-6 either being forced or otherwise. Is it not time to have sight of the updated ITR or is that still under wraps. I really hope PG knows what he is doing as a lot of this implies he is being pushed from Pillar to Post and someone is dicatating everything.It took a long time for the last placement to clear this is going to take even longer although the possible news from Ireland might help matters. But now a deal on Irleand will onl likely be the SP reaches 20p if we are lucky.

I struggle to see how we let an outside party come in change our whole criteria for drilling. Change the name and then decide whether he is going to by the field.

If you want change the drill objective by all means but success or failure does not affect the price. You roll the dice.and luck dictates. As far i see it the divestment has nothing to do with drilling of Mou-6. Nor has the current war in Middle East. In the whole scheme of scheme of things this war does not affect the price of any sale. It may well affect the security But names will continue.

I am not quite sure why someone else drilling Mou-6 for deeper depths and not the flowing reasons that we were intending to drill it has anything to do with us. It is their decision and their responsibility.

Therefore it should not be any part of any deal that is or is not being made. Therefore results IMO will be announced possibly before Mou 6 and we will not hear about Mou 6 as it would belong to someone else.

I am not really sure that Mou-6 (or whatever it is called) is now that important.

If it is called something someone else is drilling it and not us therefore not our business.

Also new Mou -6 is not aimed at the same target. Our Mou - 6 was to get the gas flowing but the new one is looking at deeper depths.

As i see it two completely different objectiives.

Maybe the necesseccity of getting it to flow has changed. Maybe the gas pressure of Mou-3 build up is evident enough.

Now the silence around what is happening in TT is more interesting. Nothing on March or April yet but we a kind of football score for February.

I have held off from that chat until I know the figure. It could be very interesting

I would tend to agree. I always felt that PG's talk about buying into Africa at the time a bit of window shopping but an indication of the intention to selling off all his assets. If i am correct that is certainly all before Trump decided to escalate world energy uncertainty through the middle east and possibly before Venezuela came onto the Geo-political picture.

Maybe with the current situation one of the majors, Exxon, comes to mind as they are already in TT has thoughts of securing supply altogether in stable country away from the ME. And this has accelerated things rather drastically.

By now we should have had production figures for March production and April Production. Why mention those rates if he was not planning to report them.

My mind was verging on the negative here and thinking that maybe production numbers were not as good as PG hooped they would be. But then i thought PD has been ultra cautious re giving numbers generally so I think he would not state figures unless he was sure of them so any forecast given should be at the very bottom estimate. So yes very possible the whole show may get sold on roughly at the same time.

I wish but as a lot of this has not flowed etc i would expect that to be heavily discounted. Even so a significant looking number.