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Ah this is the perennial question Investor or Trader Be. Should not stop being the trader and start becoming an investor. It is a bit like do you just rent your places or do you by a home.
When you rent you basically are disinterested in the place other than it serves a purpose but with buying you are buying into everything not just the home but the general area.
So with shares the trader just finds the shares that will suit his/her scenario the best. set himself trading range and buy in the dips and sell in peaks. No attachment to the share or the project the investor is interested in everything about what the company is about and even what is going on in the macro economy surrounding it.
So do you stop being a trader and possibly miss out on the real money or do you make your money as you go through. This has been going on here for a number of years now. I would reckon any decent trader has made more in that time than most of us will make when this does finally come to fruition and maybe even have a few still left in the pot at the end.
Personally i do not knock in fact i slight envy it and wish i had the still sets to do it. What i do not like though is need to try and manipulate the price to make it work either by shorting the share or by ramping price up or down just for their ends. Let the market do its job and if there are enough of them it will do it very nicely for them.
Our prize and investors comes at the end. Then you compare profits but as this has been running for around 5 years or more i would say you should think about applying a DCF on the cash flows to get a true picture who has done better.
That is a good question and i have one possible way. If Predator is set up as a number of different companies. ie Predator Morocco, Predator Ireland, Predator T&T all owned by Predator limited you would effectively just sell of Predator Morocco for Cash plus shares in which ever major it was. But first i think he would need to re-arrange the share holding in Pred Morocco to correspond with share shareholding in main company.
But this might be better answered by one of our city experts.
Thanks every body. I am not sure what i have started and i am not sure where it leaves us. Either 7.3 TCF or 0.7.TCF or 70.3TCF which ever way it is decent amount for one well.
Which brings me now to my next conundrum. If this were RNS i would reckon that PG was under estimating and add 50% on. But then this is not an RNS it is a presentation and they are generally marketing / sales exercises in which case i would probably think of deducting 50%.
But one thing i can tell you is that
A lot x A lot = Hell of a lot
A decent amount x A decent amount = A lot
A small amount x A small Amount = A very nice RoI even if it might not be life changing.
I have a feeling it is going to be nearer the middle of the three maybe edging on the top one.
The top one would not blow the doors off it would blow everything off. It would be like an atom bomb on everyones finances here and i do not care how rich you are it would be MASSIVE.
I am obviously being very thick this morning but if i use .657 instead of 657 it moves the decimal point by three places so instead of giving me 0.114 i am getting 114.15 a rather big jump the other way. There is obviously something here that i am missing and it is probably something very straight forward. All the other calculations i can follow ie the i can match the maths it is just this one where the decimal point is wrong. K Oz is obviously wrapped for the night now but if any one can unfathom this for me please i would be grateful.
75 / 657 = 0.11415
75/0.657 = 114.15
Now
750 / 657 = 1.14 This is or does come to 1.14.
I think that KO is probably right in his calculations as would be PG so there must be something straight forward that i am missing or not understanding.
Sorry Keith can you clarify your calculation. I think you have the decimal point in the wrong place.
75 /657 = 0.114 not 1.14 750 /657 is 1.14
This would the decimal place one point. And that would make a significant difference i think.
I think there is somethng you missed out in compuation that i am obviously not following.that you may have taken that simple souls like me do not pick up on.
Porters
You are right people are entitled to be unhappy and express their disappointment at the management but that does not mean you have to rude and offensive. If you really think being rude and offensive to any body is warranted action then i seriously think you ought to look at your standards. They are not mine and quite frankly nor should they be yours.
Do you think they are acting for another major trying to get in through the backdoor or are they do you think from within the City so to speak. If you are trying to get in through the backdoor i think it is really damn stupid. I mean yes they could take over the company but we are really small fry in all of this the main people are Morocco and the powers that be there. If they do not like the major they could easily just make it close to impossible to operate and therefore negate everything they have tried to do.. Personally i do not think a major would get involved in any country that is not a pure capitalist system. IMO it would be crazy so only alternative if you are right is the city trying to talk down the share for an entry by someone. question is who.
Personally i do not mind the delays. I would like to know that there are delays so that this BB does not come out with a whole load of conspiracy theories. Last thing we need is to be sitting here wondering how testing was going based on an RNS when in reality the equipment is not even in the country or something. The more that the delays are not passed on the more it looks as PG is not totally in charge. This is all about Perception Management.
Does an item need an RNS if it has already been raised and mentioned earlier even though the timeline was missed, ignored or whatever. If it does not then almost all subjects can be discussed with an RNS as everything seems to have been mentioned.
Ireland just recently so that can be updated. Not sure if arrival of approval would still need an RNS i think it would.
Update re Sandjet equipment arrival and testing. Again this has been been mentioned. Although there does seem to be some confusion amongst Contractee's as to who has first bite of the cherry. I do not think this would need an RNS as it has already been mentioned. Just because there is confusion on this BB does not mean it needs to RNS again otherwise they would be re-issuing RNS's every five minutes as every communique would be re-issued as they are all cloudy.
So if things have been covered i would think it is open for discussion and i think most things have been discussed in RNS even though the timelines have been and gone.
10p hoping for £1
That is the problem with this share in that if this does a £1 it will do several £. I think there is little doubt about that. There is gas there of that we know and we also know there is a fair bit of it too. All we need to do is access it and let it flow and the rest will do itself i reckon. The problem is accessing it. We can not do that without sandjetting and at the moment we are all clueless as to when that might be. I was hoping for late March early April testing. but i have no idea if that is likely to happen or not. Hopefully Thursday will tell us and some more as well. The problem now is Thursday cannot give us anything we do not already know as it would then be price sensitive unless we get an RNS. This is what you call cutting it fine. If there is no RNS before Thursday evening i wonder where this SP is going in the short to medium term.. Being simple i do wonder Why oh Why cannot we get a timetable that we can stick to but always there is something that gets in the way.
You are right the fundamentals have not changed but the time line may well have changed. Yes you are right i am here to make money i make no bones about that but that was based around the time line the company envisaged back in September of last year. Testing in November. November came and went and now we are in March with promise of testing in April and May but the equipment seems to be booked elsewhere, if you listen to the gossip, and the problem
is there is nothing but the gossip to listen to as the company are not saying much (at the moment) Investors really should have more say in this sort of thing. I mean if the company are raising money to drill or test or exploit they really need to be held accountability otherwise you end up nothing but massive dilution and shareholders with little way of getting out other than take the hit or just sit and wait and pray that something happens before you peg it.