Member Info for Ibiza28

Now i am no market expert and i will leave the deep analysis to them on this but this fall back in price of 2.33% on twice as many sells as buys during the day has a different feel to it. In the past when we have rises the fall back has been sharp and imo market led. This time i do not get the impression the market agress with it. Hence the only slight fall back. I would not be at all surprised if this share started to push 5p by end of the week.

I would like to think we are now in play. I think once this share gets above 10p then we will know for sure.

Or so the saying goes.

In this case i think the longer the silence the more golden it will become.

With the current price of oil would surprised if the big boys went any where near it in the immediate future. Not to mention the Geo political climate that would have been created around this audacious move DT.

Yes Happy New Year to all LTH of Predator. This indeed should be our year. Mind you i have been thinking that 2024 and 2025 were also our year.

But then this just feels different.

We have an interested party in fact very possibly two interested parties one for the CNG locally (probably AG) and then hopefully a much bigger one for the main show.

Nu Tech are supposedly up grading our resources. I am not certain we will hear about this up tick. Up grade would need to be agreed with by the purchaser before any announcement and then it would need to be excluded from any NDA that might be in place. If PG starts to mention it out of turn then it could be construed as Paul trying to pump the share.

This share is currently at 3.35p it would not surprise me at all if at some point during the year it reached £3.35. Now that would be very acceptable.

GLA

One thing for sure is there is not going to be too many producers in a restricted area. Areas will need to be clearly delinestrd otherwise look like Picadilly Circus in the rush hour.

This is maybe a bit left field but has anyone considered or thought about the idea of reversing into a bigger company with the where withall to finance a project like Guercif. Our wells are not that expensive to drill and we have a good team with us. There is Jersey oil and gas which has 6m in bank but probably too small and would be ripe for us taking them over but on a much larger scale is Ithaca almost 3bn market cap (mainly off shore North sea_ by looks of it. And they far deeper pockets. Just a thought what we have i think will far outweigh a 3bn MC. Or am i being completely mad.

Thank you for the research and work and far more eloquently put than i would manage.

The question is which one of your four strategies gets us to three figures fastest.

Will be interesting to see what Nutech will bring to the party early in the new year. But i think that will depend on whether any prospective purchaser buys into it or not. My suspicion is that Nutech could add about 50% to our 1/2p reserves. Now that would be enormous.

My thinking

Talks have broken up for xmas period and will resume either Week beginning Jan 5 or Jan 12 . could be later if purchaser is trying to get some data re-assessed internally.

Very possible two deals will get announced at or around the same time. Ie CNG/LNG sale locally and bigger sale of Gas/Helium/ Oil to a far larger outfit.

Never forget the Helium it could be worth the same amount again as the gas per share.

And also the oil. We did not go down for the Oil but it is known it is there as just under 100 years ago it was being extracted. I would be very surprised if they had extracted it all..

Now worth a lot more.

Situation

Talks with interested party on going. - Absolutely no mention of them in RNS where as it was nothing but an interested party 14 times in presentation just a month ago. - Make your own conclusion either no party and completely fictitious or someone has signed a NDA.

Company has in meantime strengthened hand immeasurably. Trinidad is about to underpin the whole company financially going forward.

Plans afoot to get license agreement extended to next phase now rather than wait to November next year.#

Nu Tech should come up with extended results as to what we have. Probably already in hands of prospective buyer.

Italfluids plans to make Mou6 flow also in hands of buyer right now.

I will not say tha the credibility of these two businesses is on the line here because to be honest we are not big enough. If buyer believes their credentials they will be on board if they do not they will take it into account but not major part of discussion. - If you believe Nutech and Italfluids are a not more to us than just paid consultants and this would be a major feather in their cap to this right. Then buy in fast. If you think as we are the piper paying the tune then take it all with healthy scepticism. But then ask your self would what they have shown PG and now the bidder fool the experts at a major. It might, just might, fool PG who is wearing rose tinted glasses through this, but would it fool the experts who are going to review with a jaundiced eye anyway. It is putting their reputation on the line. - Again make your mind up.

Are we discussing price already. I doubt it. I think that a number of things need to got through before then. If Nutech are coming through with something slightly revolutionary. Then this will need to be closely examined. Price per MCF will depend on the amount of MCFs.

Italfluids. - Is this going to flow. No point in buying this if it is not going to flow. We know its there (Gas that is and probably oil and also Helium) Yes even if Italfluid cannot get it to flow now it might flow in the future with future technology. That really would dampen down the price considerably. So Italfluids being as a good as their reputation is one very important factor in this and needs thorough review.

Is Morocco ready and wanting this discovery when it comes. -- Oh i reckon so. The changes reported to infrstructure. Recruitment of staff at ONHYM. The size of intended budget is not going to get paid for by long term money as the countries finances cannot support it - UNLESS.

I have said before i think there will be a two week break in talks and things will resume in new year. Will accelerate at a pace after that or it will quickly fizzle way.

May well get two announcements in rapid succession to the local CNG/ LNG / micro LNG deal plus the major one. How the deals are structured will also affect the price. I think it will be done with a bit of stub end equity.

This is as much about what was not said as much as what was said.

TT - Looks as if i wrong on TT i thought it would have price that would under pin the my average of around 6p per share. Completely wrong. On current shareholdings as much as 10 - 20p on Keiths Calculation.

Morocco. - As pointed out divestment was mentioned frequently at the last presentation (fourteen times) i am told. This does not mention it once. IMO almost certainly covered by a NDA and hopefully talks still going on.

Mou 1 and Mou 3 - Now looks like two interested parties in talks on this LNG/CNG , This sounds very positive.

It is very possible that divestment of Mou 1 and 3 will go separately from Mou 5 but at very much the same time. I do not thiink PG wants this coming through in stages.

If any of these talks should happen to fall apart i would not be surprised if flow testing Mou 6 is brought right up and front of the plans in the New Year, It is possible those plans were deliberately held back because purchaser asked for it not to be tested. Hence PG's big point about not having to flow test it.

I was hoping for news early in New year somewhere around Valentine's day but probably later.

Do you think he will sell the five structures separately or as one big bulk lot. Must admit i thought it would all go to one buyer. I know it is a large area but the idea of having 5 developers producers all trying to produce gas/ Helium / Oil from the same area would almost impossible to police or manage. I would have thought ONMYM would want one purchaser to deal with because i can see demarcation issues and possibly two straws in the one basin.

I admit it would not be our problem but a problem nonetheless.

They will closely examine Italfuids plan regarding flowing Mou .

This well do two things.

It will reassure them of assets they are buying.

It also might mean a time straint on negotiations as after that (assuming success) the price would go up inexorably.

So my advise to purchaser is do not prevaricate too long for a cheap. We now have TT supporting or soon will be our cost base. Testing isn't that expensive and PG is majority shareholder.

If you want in put in a decent offer now. PG is playing a clever he is keeping back a few winners so he doesn't lose control.

IMO deal will be in one of three ways.

1 sell 100pc our share outright. Personally think unlikely as doubt anyone prepared to match price PG wants.

2. Small part divestment awIting fliw tests. But final part could be immeasurably higher than now. Could be lower. Pay your money roll the dice.

3. We sell majority and retain a residue where dividends could be greater than initial price.

4. Nothing buyers walks away we test flow Mou 6 abd we roll the dice.

The question then how good is the reputation of Italfluids. If it is really highly respected then proper offer comes in early

If they think Italfluids flying a kite low offer or no offer

We do not know what we have got.

I thought we did know what we have the website is showing 1p reserves 2.1 TCF of gas and 1.4 BCF He at 1. I then goes on to a 2p and 3 p figure. I would say we do know what we have what we do not know is whether it will flow.

If we were not sure of what we had i doubt if anyone purchaser would turn up.

I know Paul ( to my knowledge) has not done a year end up date before but i think this year is an exception. There is a lot going on at the moment and it would be nice if we had an update. There is a lot going on that may or may not come to fruition in the first or early second quarter of next year.

1) How are the well workovers going in Trinidad. Is the waxing working. Is production enough cover the running costs of the company or just enough to run Trinidad.

2) Ireland: we are getting news of various sources that we have filed a claim but really somehow i think we should get something from PG on this.

3) Plans for testing Mou 6. Are we closer to finalising the drill plans. Are we likely to do this regardless of the talks and how they are progressing.

4) Mou 3 readings or an idea at least whether the pressure readings have increased since we capped the well.

5) Morocco: Whilst i do not expect (as much as it maybe nice) a blow by blow account as to how the talks have progressed with prospective buyer it would be nice to know or have a simple line that says along the lines of " talks have progressed and we have broken for the Xmas period and are planned to resume early in the New Year", It would be nice if there were more to add but i am not going to ask Paul disclose any confidentiality of the talks or details. I would not expect that but i think it would be nice that are still on going. Mind you if they had collapsed i would hope we would have had the RNS by now. I wonder if there is any one else in the offing or just this one outfit.

A little something now would do this SP a power of good i think (hope) and send all of us into Xmas and New Year with a bit of cheer and even greater optimism. I know a lot of years have meant to be the year for

IMO The Gas is there, there is just too much information from too many sources to ignore the fact. Forget the Trolls Madman they are a waste of space and i am sure your time is far too valuable to worry about them.

Oak Securities have for a long time now put a valuation of £1.48 per share that has not been revised despite a couple of share rises in between. The reason this has not changed is because this was an absolute bare minimum of what they expect. Probably about 10% of an expected price. I believe GRH may have considered £15 a share. i never saw this so cannot comment on that but if that were the case this £1.48 being 10% would be about right.

What i do know if the companies website is any near accurate with 2.1TCF of Gas and around 2.4BCF of Helium and god knows what Oil (we have not gone that far yet i gather) but history tells us it is there. Maybe not specifically down one of these wells but certainly in that vicinity. Then at an absolute minimum this should be around £10 per share and probably a lot more.

If we are right and we do not need to prove up the fact the gas flows then the last thing any prospective buyer is going to want to happen is us prove up the gas. Because on these numbers it would take the price into astronomical ranges. If we get it to flow.

However the question i ask (without wanting to sound negative) is what if we do not get this to flow were we to test. Would that be it or would there be other methods of getting it to flow. I think Keith posted a whole piece on this not so long ago but not sure if that was a general piece or specifically related to our assets.

The next question is would a prospective purchasor want basically for us to take Guerciff off the market would he be prepared a non refundable retention that would be deducted from any final agreed sales price. We would take it off the market for a period of time say 3 months. Speaking as very interested party even a few million would get the testing done and save us from any rise plus re-invest into Trinidad but say 1% of any estimated selling price would be around 100m usd. That would give us all a 10p xmas dividend. Completely re-rate the share price and demonstate to the world how real our asset in Morocco really is.

Yes i know pigs will fly but just one day soon they might well fly in very large formations.

What these reprints of old articles and old pieces of research are showing is the depth of knowledge that PG and Pred have gained over the last few years. Brick by Brick they are building what is beginning to look like a very sizeable structure. It is not the finished article and it maybe that we will not finish it off. We have designed the plans and we have got the approval it will not be long before someone comes in the buys off plan. One day a lot of us on here are going to wake up one morning with an extraordinarily wide grin, and i do not think it will be too far away.

I reckon that any buyers is talking to absolutely everyone involved with Pred and or PG.

Part two

There will be a break in the talks over the Xmas period and that may well be extremely helpful in speeding things along. The initial talks would have happened and a large amount of the due diligence would have occurred, maybe all of it.

The Xmas break gives the participants a breather to think and consult. The consultation will save time at the end (IMO) and might well set the parameters and authorisation of the purchaser a lot clearer.

This could be the key moment, bit like “Out of sight, out of mind” or “Absence makes the heart grow fonder”. If it is the first they will not resume after Xmas, if the second, I reckon we could get news as early as February.

There are two kinds of buying and selling.

There is the buying and selling of a business and then there is the buying and selling of an Asset. Whilst, I have never been involved in the buying and selling of anything of this magnitude, and there are probably only a few on here that have been, I have been on smaller sizes but all it is essentially a few more noughts on the end.

The basic difference between the two is that with one you just need to check the asset or assets with the other you just need to check both the asset/assets and all the liabilities both current and contingent ( ie possibly / likely to occur), plus a number of other issues. PG is not selling Predator as a he is selling the company’s main asset.

The main thing is that PG wants to sell and someone is genuinely interested in buying. So I would assume that (excuse the analogy) they are both reading the same book and hopefully the same chapter (all be it a very big chapter). If they were not reading the same book I would suggest the talks would be over now.

One of the problems with buying something is with the value of the intangible assets ie those you cannot physically identify and this might be the issue here in that are our gas finds tangible fixed assets or are they still intangible. Does the strength of the data room support the gas we know is there as being a tangible asset or does it still classify as an intangible one.

Someone here used the analogy of the gas finds to an antique car and whether it started or not as being unimportant to its value and I agreed with that and to a certain extent I still do. But if you bought an antique car it would still be an antique car even if it did not start all be it may a slighter cheaper antique. But if the gas does not flow as Guercif then all you have is just a lump of land with a few olive trees on it. So if you like we are selling the potential.

Assuming all these factors pass the acid test then the talks will progress and the strength of the data room will determine whether the buyer believes he is buying an enormous untapped potential or just buying a lot of intangible assets that may have a significant value down the line. I think the ultimate purchase price will come down to this and the proof of the pudding will be in the data room.

The more convincing the data room the less likely it is that the buyer will want us to flow test Mou-6 because proving up the assets would raise the price significantly. At the moment it is still, if you like, intangible (in more ways than one).

May main point is this might not be as long a process as one thinks. Assuming that all the logistical elements make business sense and ONHYM and Morocco are all on board. Then the debate is going to come down to does the buyer believe the data room and all its various independent studies and the reputation of PG as a Geologist, or it does not..

There will be a break in the talks over the Xmas period and that may well